'Pioneer' Top Third-Crop Sire

The Triple Crown is on the line, and American Pharoah has one huge stat in his favor: he has beaten, it looks like, every horse set to line up against him; plus, the long-range forecast says it could rain on Saturday. Of course, he still has to be moving forward after his first two Triple Crown wins; and–huge if–he has to get the trip. His daddy, WinStar's Pioneerof the Nile, was never tested for America's version of an extreme distance, as he never ran again after being eased in the 2009 GI Preakness won by the filly Rachel Alexandra; but his granddaddy, Empire Maker, won the GI Belmont; and if his damsire, the sprinter Yankee Gentleman (by Storm Cat), hasn't stopped him yet, that's unlikely to be what stops him now.

Even before the Belmont, Pioneerof the Nile is the Leading Third-Crop Sire, both on the TDN Year-to-Date 2015 Third-Crop Sire List (click here), and on the TDN Cumulative Third-Crop Sire List (click here). Naturally, American Pharoah winning the GI Kentucky Derby and Preakness has a lot to do with that. In fact, American Pharoah's four wins (from four starts) this year have earned him $3,368,800 of Pioneerof The Nile's 2014 total of $4.48-million (through Monday); his other 73 runners this year have earned a little over $1.1-million. Moreover, cry the skeptics, American Pharoah is Pioneerof the Nile's only Grade I winner; is he a one-horse sire? But when you look at the stats, Pioneerof the Nile had three Grade II winners from 86 named foals in his first crop, including Cairo Prince, who was probably the early 2014 Derby favorite after winning the GII Holy Bull in Florida, but was stopped by injury, and incidentally has just completed his first season as an extra-promising $10,000 stallion (especially considering what 'A.P.' will cost to breed to if he wins on Saturday) at Airdrie.
Pioneerof the Nile's second crop, American Pharoah's crop, includes a relatively small 62 foals, and his third crop, this year's 2-year-olds, is also in the sixties. So it's not like he was particularly highly touted; he was originally a $20,000 stallion at Vinery, and had dropped to $15,000 by the time of his transfer to WinStar for the 2013 season.

The Zayat stable acquired Pioneerof the Nile's dam, the Lord At War (always an influence for class) mare Star of Goshen, in foal to Empire Maker, from Gary Biszantz after she was bought back for $160,000 at the 2005 Keeneland November sale. She had been bred by the Lavin family at their Longfield Farm in Goshen, Ky., and was bought as a 2-year-old in training at the Keeneland sale for $175,000 by one of the 'pioneer' California bloodstock agents, Rollin Baugh, from Kip Elser's consignment. Trained by Mike Pupye for Biszantz's Cobra Farm, Star of Goshen won three of five, including the seven-furlong La Troienne S. at Churchill Downs as a 3-year-old in 1997, but after breeding a few foals from her without notable success, Biszantz sold her, and that's when Ahmed Zayat started to get really lucky in the horse business.

A $290,000 buyback at the 2007 Keeneland September Sale (American Pharoah was himself a $300,000 buyback at Saratoga), Zayat sent Pioneerof the Nile first to Bill Mott, then, after he had run fifth, beaten under three lengths, to Midshipman in the 2008 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he left the horse in California with Bob Baffert. Pioneerof the Nile then reeled off four consecutive Grade I/Grade II victories at Hollywood Park (GI Cashcall Futurity) and Santa Anita (GII Robert B. Lewis, GII San Felipe, GI Santa Anita Derby)–this was the zenith of the synthetic era in California racing, remember–and Pioneerof the Nile went to the 2009 GI Kentucky Derby, untested on dirt, as the 6-1 third favorite behind Friesan Fire and Dunkirk. They caught a sloppy track, and Calvin Borel cut the corner on the unconsidered 50-1 no-hoper Mine That Bird (Birdstone). Pioneerof the Nile held on for second after briefly leading in the stretch. He had a nightmare trip in the GI Preakness two weeks later, was eventually eased down, and never ran again.

Because he ran so well on synthetics, there was a question what kind of sire Pioneerof the Nile might ultimately prove to be, but there need not have been any cause for concern. We have found, in the analyses we have published periodically on all-weather sires, that in the main the best sires are the best sires whatever the surface; A.P. Indy was a very good sire of AW horses, as has been Kitten's Joy. For his part, Pioneerof the Nile, like his own sire Empire Maker (like his sire Unbridled, and the Fappiano line in general), looks principally a dirt sire: he does have one Grade II winner on the grass, 2014 Del Mar Derby victor Midnight Storm. But Cairo Prince was a dirt horse, American Pharoah is a dirt horse, last year's GI Preakness third Social Inclusion was a dirt horse, 2014 GII Summertime Oaks winner Jojo Warrior is a dirt filly, and 2014 GIII Sam F. Davis winner Vinceremos was a dirt colt. Not an issue.

Only two North American or European third-crop sires have more than one Grade I or Group 1 winner: cumulative third-crop number two by progeny earnings, Coolmore's Mastercraftsman, and the Aga Khan Gilltowns Stud's Sea The Stars, cumulative number three (click here again). Sea The Stars, Galileo's half-brother by Cape Cross (also damsire of last year's G1 Epsom Derby winner, Australia, and sire of this year's Epsom favorite, G2 Dante winner Golden Horn), was hailed by many (including me) as the best racehorse we'd seen since Secretariat 36 years earlier. Trained by John Oxx for the Tsui family, as a 3-year-old in 2009 Sea The Stars went six-for-six, winning the G1 English 2000 Guineas at a mile, the G1 Epsom Derby and the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at a mile and a half, and in between did what all owners of Epsom Derby winners seem desperate to do–proved he was just as good at 10 furlongs, at which distance he won three Group 1s: the Eclipse, the Juddmonte International, and the Irish Champion S. Timeform awarded him a year-end rating of 140; he ran Racing Post Ratings (RPR) of 135 and 138 at 10 furlongs, and won the Arc with an RPR 132 after a troubled passage. He was a superstar racehorse, and when he retired, his rider, Mick Kinane, did too. Unfortunately for him, Sea The Stars only held the title of “world's best racehorse since Secretariat” for two years, until Frankel came along.

Sea The Stars has had about the best books of mares it's possible for a stallion to receive, but he is upholding them. He leads NA/EU third-crop sires with 15 Black-Type Winners (BTW); 25 Black-Type Horses (BTH); 17 Graded/Group Stakes Horses (GSH); and three Group 1 winners in his first crop, 3-year-olds of 2014: the fillies Taghrooda (G1 Epsom Oaks, G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S.) and Vazira (G1 Prix Saint-Alary); and the colt Sea The Moon (G1 German Derby). The only black-type category in which he does not lead this group is number of Graded/Group Stakes Winners (GSW), of which Mastercraftsman has eight and Sea The Stars seven. Mastercraftsman, a son of Danehill Dancer, was a very good racehorse in his own right: he won the G1 Phoenix S. (6f.) and G1 National S. (7f.) at two; the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas and the G1 St. James's Palace S. at a mile at three; and placed twice behind Sea The Stars at 10 furlongs, when second in the G1 Juddmonte S. and third in the G1 Irish Champion S. He's sired two Classic winners in his first crop, both still in training at four: dual 2014 G1 winner The Grey Gatsby (G1 Prix du Jockey-Club–French Derby–and G1 Irish Champion S.); and 2014 G1 English St. Leger winner (and G1 Epsom Derby second) Kingston Hill.

Australian Champion Sire and former Coolmore reverse shuttler Fastnet Rock has his first Northern Hemisphere 4-year-olds, and is having a good year so far, which sees him third on the 2015 third-crop sire list and fourth overall now on the cumulative list. Fifth on the cumulative list is France's Haras de la Cauviniere's Le Havre, sire of the dual Classic-winning filly Avenir Certain in his first crop last year. The other third-crop sires with more than five Black-Type Winners so far are Banstead Manor's Champs Elysees (17th by earnings), with six; and New Mexico sire Diabolical (16th by earnings, seven BTW), a Grade II winner sprinting at Saratoga (over another New Mexico stallion, Atilla's Storm) and later a Group-1 placed sprinter for Godolphin.

Further Down The List…
TDN International Editor Kelsey Riley has stepped in again to profile a pair of sires (one NA and one EU) that are flying under the radar further down the third-crop sire list:

TWO STEP SALSA (2005, Petionville–Two To Waltz, by Seattle Slew. Get Away Farm, FL, $7,500)
I wrote about Two Step Salsa when contributing my 'under $15,000 value sires' to this column Jan. 28 (click here), and for me the Florida resident remains the best value on the third crop sire list (he currently sits 12th). Two Step Salsa was a three-time graded/group winner who did his best running as a late 3-year-old and 4-year-old–he finished third in the inaugural Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile in 2008 before winning the G2 Godolphin Mile the following year. His Grade I winner Dance With Fate was twice Grade I-placed as a 2-year-old and won the GI Blue Grass S. before finishing a respectable sixth in the GI Kentucky Derby, and his other graded winner, Conquest Two Step, won his graded race at four this year. The last run of APEX ratings generated in January show Two Step Salsa with a respectable 2-year-old ABC Runner Index of 1.46 and a 3-year-old ABC Runner Index of 1.40. His first two crops have produced three A Runners and three B Runners (2.31 for each index).

Conquest Two Step, who gave Shared Belief a scare when second in the GI Malibu S. in December, is a new stakes winner for his sire this year. He took the GII Palos Verdes S. in January over dual Breeders' Cup winner and next-out G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen winner Secret Circle and finished third in the GII San Carlos S. in March. Conquest Two Step was sadly euthanized in April after surgery to repair a condylar fracture. Two Step Salsa has been dealt some seriously bad luck: Dance With Fate was also euthanized after a freak accident last year, meaning both the sire's graded winners died during their prime on the racetrack. Two Step Salsa's numbers will be against him the next few seasons–he has just 34 live 3-year-olds, 31 2-year-olds and 39 yearlings, but last year he bred a reported 109 mares.

CHAMPS ELYSEES (GB) (2003, Danehill–Hasili {Ire}, by Kahyasi {Ire}, Banstead Manor, GB, £10,000)
Currently 17th on the third-season sire list is Champs Elysees and, the top three aside, he has more black-type winners than any other European sire on the list (six). His highest-rated performer is his first-crop daughter Xcellence, who won last year's G3 Prix Imprudence and placed in the G1 Prix de Diane and G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches. Xcellence was twice graded-placed in the U.S. before being bought back by owner Martin Schwartz for €950,000 at Arqana December last year. Another classy filly by the full-brother to Dansili is last year's G3 Silver Flash S. winner and G1 Prix Marcel Boussac third Jack Naylor, who–in her first start of the year–finished fourth in the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas with a career-best RPR of 108. She goes to the G1 Epsom Oaks on Friday.

Champs Elysees has also had a pair of potentially classy stayers surface last week from his first crop. Glaring–who earned an RPR of 107 for finishing second in a French listed race Apr. 16–finished second in the 15 1/2-furlong G2 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier for Khalid Abdullah and Andre Fabre May 24, and Trip To Paris was runner-up for Ed Dunlop in the 16 1/2-furlong G3 Henry II S. May 28–earning a 107 RPR–off three handicap wins between 12 and 18 1/2 furlongs to begin the year. So while Champs Elysees is still searching for that all-important first Group 1 winner, he has done well enough siring classy runners that are improving with age to think that it may not be far off. And remember, he was a late-bloomer himself. He won his first group race–the G3 Prix Hedouville–at four and went on to win Grade Is at five and six, recording his best RPR of 121 when winning his final start, the GI Canadian International of 2009.