It's an odd thing about sales companies: they are the first to respond to market changes by altering the formats of their sales, yet, both in America and Europe, they're fiercely competitive in what they have to say about the sales–or, rather, what they say about their sales. I'm quite grateful because, really, from the points of view of shoppers and buyers, as well as anybody in the outside world who takes an interest, it's all one market–given, of course that there are market sectors, and market tiers, yet nobody else really reports it that way.
When we look at that one Kentucky November mixed sale market, comprised of Fasig-Tipton's kickoff day on Monday, Nov. 3, plus Keeneland's 11 days from the 4th-14th, the totals really were about dead even with last year's. This year 2,620 horses sold over the 12 days for a total of $269,577,500, and an average of $102,892. In 2013 there were 2,586 horses sold for $271,048,000, and an average of $104,814. The number sold was up by 1%; the gross was down by one half of 1% (.5%); and the average was down by 2%. The difference was, there were 10% more catalogued this year, so the clearance rate from the catalogues for the two sales dropped from 67.6% last year to 62.0% this year.
With 10% fewer catalogued for their one-day extravaganza, and a 4% drop in their clearance rate from the catalogue as well, Fasig's share of the combined market gross declined to 24% from 27% last year. However, to sell a quarter of the market in one day is pretty good, on top of which they sold 12 of the 18 horses which brought $2 million or more (though Keeneland had the new record North American weanling, a $3-million Tapit filly); and 23 of the
41 which brought $1 million or more.
In recent years the mixed sales, both in North America and Europe, have been characterized by strength in depth in the weanling market rather than the mares, though demand for broodmares and broodmare prospects looked much stronger this year. Seven Kentucky stallions represented by their first crops of foals averaged $70,000+, though they will all be dwarfed when the first foals by Frankel sell at Goffs next Thursday. For this week, though, they are the leaders. Lane's End'sUnion Rags (Dixie Union) has had 17 weanlings sell for an average of $133,941 (click here), just edging WinStar's Bodemeister (Empire Maker), who had 23 sell, for an average of $118,749. Both, however, had medians of $130,000 and exceptionally high clearance rates of 85% and 92%, respectively. They're kind of tied at the top.
I was interested to read Braxton Lynch's comment in yesterday's TDN (click here) that she sees a lot of Nijinsky II in both Union Rags and his foals, as I had made a similar comment about the horse himself striking me as very Nijinsky (Oct. 29) when I had seen him. Of course, it doesn't mean that he will really throw Nijinskys, but if he does it will be a valuable source of Nijinsky even if it doesn't say that on the sire line 'blurb'.
Sons of Bernardini finished third and fourth on this freshman sire list: Ashford's Stay Thirsty averaged $91,833 with 12 sold; while Gainesway's To Honor and Serve had nine average $90,778. Lane's End's The Factor, the first Kentucky-based son of War Front to have foals in the marketplace got good reviews, with 20 averaging $87,150. Gainesway's Tapizar (Tapit) also got great reviews from the market, with 15 selling of 17 offered (88%) for an average of $83,600. I was interested to read Lucas Marquardt's observations about Tapizar in Friday's TDN (click here) regarding Tapit's potential as a sire of sires. I think it's a really interesting development, in that, the way it's looked to me, neither Trappe Shot(first yearlings) nor Tapizar (first weanlings) were particularly 'expected' by the market. It suggests to me that both–like Tapit himself did–somewhat 'surprised' the market with very good, uniform individuals. The top seven North American weanling sires were rounded out by Darby Dan's Shackleford (Forestry), who had 15 weanlings average $71,933.
Among sires with their first mares selling in foal, of those with 10 or more sold (click here), Claiborne's 2013 GI Kentucky Derby winner Orb (Malibu Moon) topped the charts, with 19 mares in foal averaging $251,053. Ashford's 2012 champion 2-year-old Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday) came next, with 12 sold for an average of $192,250–that was a sparkling 100% of all 12 offered. Darley's 2011 GI Kentucky Derby winner (and 2013 G1 Dubai World Cup winner)Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux {Brz}) had 22 mares in foal average $170,773. Taylor Made's Graydar (Unbridled's Song, $101,188), Hill 'n' Dale's Violence (Medaglia D'Oro, $91,091), and WinStar's Paynter (Awesome Again, $82,231) filled the next three places.
Those are last week's headlines; this coming week the headlines are going to be about the first foals by Frankel (GB) (Galileo {Ire}) to come to market, at Goffs next Thursday, where he has six weanlings catalogued, with another four catalogued the following week at Tattersalls. I don't just mean headlines in the TDN and the Racing Post, either; Frankel is big news to the outside world, too. Let's remind ourselves why: he's probably the best racehorse any of us have ever seen. Timeform rated him at 143 as a 3-year-old, and he became their highest-rated horse ever as a 4-year-old in 2012, earning a year-end Timeform rating of 147 after completing three seasons of racing, undefeated in 14 starts, under the tutelage of the late, great Henry Cecil. He was rated even higher than Sea The Stars (Ire), who in 2009 earned a Timeform rating of 140 after going unbeaten in six Group 1 races at three, including the English 2000 Guineas, the Epsom Derby, and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, with three 10-furlong wins (over Rip Van Winkle, Mastercraftsman, and Fame And Glory, respectively) in between. You know what kind of a sire Sea The Stars is, and Frankel was rated higher than even Sea The Stars.
Just as form behind Sea The Stars is proving meaningful in the sire ranks, so form behind Frankel is likely to be. Two horses who, like him, stayed in training at four in 2012 and have their first foals selling over the next two weeks are of particular interest. Coolmore's sales debutant Excelebration (Ire) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}) was five times placed behind Frankel at a mile (four times second, one time third) at three (when trained by Marco Botti) and four (Aidan O'Brien). When Frankel stepped up to 10 furlongs for his last two races, Excelebration won two Group 1's at a mile, including the Queen Elizabeth S. on British Champions Day in 2012, when he looked like Frankel against other Group 1 milers. Using Racing Post Ratings (RPR), which are similar to Timeform ratings, Frankel ran RPRs of 136-143 in each of his last seven starts, including 143 twice. Excelebration ran RPR 131 when he outclassed his opposition in the 2012 Queen Elizabeth S.
The other horse with significant form behind Frankel, though not as often, was Newsells Park's Nathaniel (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}). He only met Frankel twice, in the first and last race for both. He dropped a half-length decision to him as a 2-year-old in a one-mile maiden at Newmarket, then they both closed out their careers 26 months later in the G1 Champion S. as part of the 2012 British Champions Day. After Excelebration won the one-mile 'QE II,' Frankel defeated Cirrus des Aigles and Nathaniel in the Champion S. Nathaniel ran an RPR 127 in that race, the fourth time in four 2012 races he had run to the same figure. He had also run RPR 127 when winning the previous year's G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. There's nothing more important in this business than understanding form lines, and these are two pretty good examples, so, besides watching Frankel's headline-grabbers, astute students will also be looking closely at the weanlings by Excelebration (29, including six at Goffs, 20 at Tattersalls, and three at Arqana) and Nathaniel (25: three at Goffs, 19 at Tatts', and three at Arqana) over the next few weeks.
These top prospects are just three of the 19 stallions which have 10 or more foals catalogued to sell at Goffs, Tattersalls, and Arqana over the next few weeks (click here for F2014 sire with first weanlings). Among these are no fewer than six stallions with 40 or more foals catalogued; needless to say, the foal market is a big deal in Europe. Goffs sells foals from tomorrow through Thursday, then mares, etc. Friday and Saturday. Tattersalls has a one-day yearling sale to kick off their marathon December Sale (most of which is in November), then four days of foals Nov. 26-29, and four days of mares, etc. Dec. 1-4. Arqana finishes the European sales season with its Mixed Sale Dec. 6-9.
Of the six sires with 40+ catalogued over the three sales, the top two by number catalogued at Goffs, starting tomorrow, are Darley's Casamento (Ire) (Shamardal), who stands at Kildangan Stud in Ireland; and Tally-Ho Stud's Sir Prancealot (Ire) (Tamayuz {GB}), who have 45 foals each at Goffs. Casamento went three-for-four as a 2-year-old when trained by Mick Halford for Sheikh Mohammed, including the G1 Racing Post Trophy, but could manage only one Group 3 win at three when trained by Mahmoud Al-Zarooni for Godolphin. Sir Prancealot, from the first crop by the very good miler Tamayuz, raced only at two–like Tally-Ho's current success story, Zebedee–when he won the G2 Flying Childers S. over five furlongs and finished in the first four in the G2 Norfolk at Royal Ascot, the G2 Robert Papin, and the G1 Prix Morny. Casamento leads all first-year F2014 sires with 63 catalogued through the three sales; Sir Prancealot has 55 catalogued.
Of the 40+ brigade, Rathasker Stud's Born To Sea (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}), a half-brother to Sea The Stars who ran second to Camelot in a heavy-ground G1 Irish Derby, has 30 catalogued at Goffs (41 total); and Coolmore's Power (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}), who won the G2 Coventry at Royal Ascot and G1 National S. at two, and the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas at three, has 21 at Goffs, and 40 total. The other two sires with 40+ are more heavily represented at Newmarket: Tweenhills' Harbour Watch (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}) really could have been any kind. He only ran three times, all at two, and won them all, culminating in an impressive win in the G2 Richmond S. at Goodwood. There are 53 by him at Tattersalls (61 total). Juddmonte's Bated Breath (GB) (Dansili {GB}) scored his only group race win in the G2 Temple S., but ran second or third in five Group 1's at five and six furlongs. He has 41 at Tatts (45 overall).
There are also two interesting prospects among the 19 stallions with double-digit representation with Australian form. Coolmore's So You Think (NZ) (High Chaparral {Ire}) won five Group 1's in Australia and added another five Group 1's–all around the 10-furlong distance–for Aidan O'Brien. In all, he ran RPRs of 127-129 10 times, which is uncommonly consistent at a top-class level. So You Think is represented by 17 foals from his first crop over the three sales. Darley'sSepoy (Aus) was a very fast son of Elusive Quality who won 10 of his first 11 starts in Australia, including four six-furlong Group 1 races at two and three. He ran RPRs of 119-126 in 10 consecutive races. He has 25 foals catalogued, 22 of then at Tattersalls.
Not nearly so many are catalogued in foal to the most prominent sires which retired in 2014 (click here for F2015 sires with first mares in foal). Montjeu's only Guineas winner (G1 English 2000 Guineas) and one of his four G1 Epsom Derby winners is Coolmore's Camelot (GB), who has 24 mares catalogued in foal across the three sales. With 22 each are: Dabirsim (Fr) (Hat Trick {Jpn}), the unbeaten 2011 French 2-year-old champion, who stands in Germany at Gestut Karlshof (Maxios {GB}, by Monsun, also stands in Germany, at Gestut Fahrhof, and has 16 catalogued in foal); Coolmore's Declaration of War (War Front), who has now been transferred to Ashford; and Cheveley Park's Lethal Force (Ire), from Dark Angel (Ire)'s first crop, and the best European sprinter of 2013 not named Moonlight Cloud. Havana Gold (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}), the 2013 G1 Jean Prat winner who stands alongside Harbour Watch at Tweenhills, has 20 mares catalogued in foal. Darley's Dawn Approach (Ire) (New Approach {Ire}), an unbeaten 2-year-old who went on to win the G1 English 2000 Guineas and Royal Ascot's G1 St. James's Palace S., both at a mile, has 17 catalogued; and Cheveley Park'sIntello (Ger) (Galileo), winner of the G1 Prix du Jockey-Club and third in three other top-class Group 1 races, including the 'Arc,' has 13 catalogued from his first crop at Tattersalls and Deauville.
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