Sire Future Bet a Possibility for 2015

By T.D. Thornton 
The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission has approved a new wager that allows horseplayers to bet on which stallion will sire the winner of the Kentucky Derby. 

Churchill Downs officials are still debating whether the future bet will debut in time for the 2015 running of the track’s signature race. 

Although the primary purpose of the Derby Sire Wager is to generate betting handle and stimulate fan interest months in advance of the race, some industry officials envision that the new bet could have positive marketing implications for bloodstock operations because of the increased media attention top-level stallions will receive during the heart of the breeding season. 

“It’s certainly very intriguing,” said Dan Metzger, president of the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association. “It heightens awareness of the breeding industry, which I think is a very positive sign. The stallion marketing game has changed dramatically over the past couple of decades. It’s a competitive marketplace, especially with new stallions, and everybody’s always looking at how to get their stallion out there beyond traditional advertising means.” 

Bets involving winning sires could be a natural tie-in for the Breeders’ Cup, especially considering that the KHRC has jurisdiction over Keeneland Race Course, the site of the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Championships. 

“It’s an interesting concept,” said Ken Kirchner, lead consultant for the wagering and simulcasting operations of the Breeders’ Cup. “We haven’t discussed it internally at the Breeders’ Cup yet, so I think it’s a little early to say what the reaction would be. If Churchill implements it, we’d be very curious to see what the results of that type of future wager would be. It’s certainly a unique way to place a bet, and I’ll be very interested to see what happens.” 

Lindsey Flora, deputy executive director of the KHRC, confirmed that the Derby Sire Wager passed “with no modifications to the initial request” at the Dec. 2 commission meeting. Flora said that the request was “track-specific,” and that if Keeneland wanted to implement a similar wager for the Breeders’ Cup, it would have to file a separate request. 

According to an informational memo that was part of the commissioners’ packet for that meeting, Churchill requested win and exacta wagering on a pool of 23 individual sires, with a 24th “mutuel field” betting interest encompassing all other stallions. The bet is styled after the existing Derby and Oaks future pools, with the twist that a Derby Sire Wager is valid for all registered offspring of a particular sire in that year’s foal crop. 

“So for example, if you gamble on the offspring of Tapit, and his leading son [being pointed for the Derby] goes by the wayside, you’ve got all the other sons of Tapit still alive in your bet,” said Darren Rogers, Churchill’s senior director of communications. 

“We’re still discussing internally whether or not it will debut in advance of the 2015 Derby or whether we table it for the 2016 renewal,” Rogers said. “We’re still discussing whether or not we launch this maybe sometime in January.” 

Rogers said the genesis of the Derby Sire Wager came about when track officials were brainstorming ideas to broaden the window of time in which horseplayers focus on the Derby. Churchill at first considered future bets involving picking the winning Derby jockey or trainer, but Rogers said that those wagers carried a risk of confusion because the human connections of top horses can change. 

Rogers said staff members believed betting on the Derby winner’s sire had a lot of upside because the stallion doesn’t change, the top sires are recognizable to the general public, and bettors have a chance to win with multiple horses represented by one sire. 

“Most of the people who play the Kentucky Derby Future Wager are savvy horseplayers,” Rogers said. “The challenge for us is to find the best way to communicate a field of 23 individual sires as to the quality of their offspring and present that into a program-page format. We’re leaning towards one pool, one that does not coincide with the individual Derby Future Wager. We want it to stand alone. We don’t want to make it confusing.” 

As an advance bet, the Derby Sire Wager opens up myriad wagering scenarios: A player could make bets on individual Derby Future pool contenders while hedging with Derby Sire Wagers, or vice versa. At the same time, the Sire Wager introduces an element of historical familiarity: A bettor might recall cashing a wager on a horse in a previous Derby, and want to back its offspring as a way of rooting for that same horse as a sire. 

“We don’t know what it will do,” Rogers said. “Will people lean toward established stallions or will they seek value with up-and-coming sires? Ideally, I do think it’s a wager that works six months out of the Derby as opposed to closer to it.” 
Rogers said one of the questions asked by the commissioners was who would be deciding on which sires are represented, and that Churchill reported it would be their “usual committee” that included Rogers, director of racing Ben Huffman, vice president of communications John Asher, and director of programming Jill Byrne. 

“It sounds for me like an absolute win-win for everybody involved, whether you’re a fan, or Churchill Downs, or whether you’re the breeding industry.” Metzger said. “I would applaud Churchill Downs for being innovative and coming up with a cross-promotion between racing and the breeders. I think it’s a great tie-in.” 

Although the bloodstock industry relies a great deal upon traditional methods to market stallions, farms have shown flexibility in how they advertise their sires’ accomplishments in recent years. One example is the inclusion of speed figures in stallion advertisements. Once unheard of, citing a horse’s triple-digit Beyer Figure prowess is now routine. 
Could advertisements that tout how strongly horses are backed in the Derby Sire Wager be far behind? 

“I can see that,” said Dan Pride, chief operating officer for Darley America. “Obviously it’s more powerful if they’re the Derby-winning sire. But if there is a short price on them as a stallion in that future bet, then most likely they’ll be represented by multiple runners, and that would be a good thing for your stallion.” 

Metzger said to imagine for a moment what the buzz about the Derby Sire Wager might have meant to Harris Farms of California had this type of bet been offered in the spring of 2014. 

“If you’re Harris Farms, standing Lucky Pulpit, what great recognition for a farm in California that often gets overshadowed by the great Kentucky powerhouses,” Metzger said. “Here’s an obscure son of Pulpit standing out in California, and all of a sudden California Chrome brings him this great notoriety.” 

But the prospect of advance publicity only applies if a stallion is included as one of the 23 individual sires and is not relegated to the mutuel field. 

If Churchill goes with only a single pool for the Derby Sire Wager, there won’t be updates throughout the winter and spring to the betting interests as there are with the Derby Future pools. 

“Last year, I’m fairly confident that if we had this wager, the field would have won,” Rogers said. “I don’t think six months out, we would have had Lucky Pulpit as one of the individual 23 betting interests.” 

But a larger operation like Darley might expect to be represented in the Derby Sire Wager with multiple stallions far in advance of the race. At No. 5, Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense) is currently the highest-ranked prospect on the Road to the Derby points list that is sired by a Darley stallion. 

“Any time a stallion can be associated with the Kentucky Derby, it’s a good thing,” said Pride. “Anything that can create interest around what we do on the stallion farms, we’re all for it.”