By Bill Finley
With the first major 2-year-old sale, OBS March, now in the books, and the next round, the OBS April sale, right around the corner, it's time for some predictions. We asked the experts who their pick is for leading freshman sire and also asked them for a “sleeper pick,” or a stallion that will perform beyond expectations. Here's what they had to say:
NELSON ARROYO
Top Pick: Life is Good, WinStar Farm, $60,000
This is one of the best years we've ever had when it comes to the freshman sire group. It is a very strong group. I think that Life is Good is going to be among the top. He's throwing physicals that show both speed and distance. Towards the end of the year, I think we'll see the Life is Good 2-year-olds really start to show up. This group is amazing. You have Corniche (Coolmore, $15,000), Jack Christopher (Coolmore, $15,000), Jackie's Warrior (Spendthrift, $25,000), and Life is Good. But from what I have seen so far, I have to make Life is Good my pick.
Sleeper Pick: Drain the Clock, Gainesway, $10,000
Based on the March sale, Drain the Clock is the pick among the more affordable sires. He is the value sire. They are showing a lot of speed and their physicals scream out athlete. They are very athletic. We saw that as weanlings. At the yearling sales, we saw the same. At the March sale, we saw the same thing.
$1.1-million son of Drain the Clock selling at OBS March | OBS/VidHorse
NIALL BRENNAN
Top Pick: Life is Good
This is a tough one because it's a very interesting crop of freshman sires. Based on the way they sold at the yearling sales, it's a good group. There are several that I like. Obviously, we try to go off of what we have here versus necessarily what you see at the sales. I'm impressed with the Life is Goods. We've got several of them and I'm impressed with their consistency. They're a very consistent group physically and mentally. They're forward, they're balanced, intelligent, and good movers on the track. So I have to say that you have to be very positive on Life is Good. I also like the few Jackie's Warriors that we have. There are high expectations for Flightline. So it's hard not to include him in the conversation, but the ones I have are not going to be early. That's not a surprise. And a couple of them look like they're very much turf. There's also the Drain the Clocks, who were very fast at the March sale. The word is out on him.
Sleeper Pick: Early Voting (Taylor Made, $12,500)
This is a tough one, too. I've got a couple of Early Votings that I like that are for racing. They're not going to the sales. I've got an Epicenter colt that's also outstanding, a very, very nice horse. There's also Olympiad (Gainesway, $20,000) and Cyberknife (Spendthrift, $15,000). I'll go with Early Voting because of the fact that he stands for less money than Epicenter and Olympiad.
TAMI BOBO
Top Pick: Life is Good
My top pick would be Life is Good, but I also like Epicenter (Coolmore, $25,000). The group of Life is Goods were very forward and strong. They are probably more Saturday-type horses. I think Epicenter is going to be the same. I don't think we should leave out Jackie's Warrior. We do need to mention him. Coming out of the March sale, I don't think they went over as well as I anticipated or did others. But I do think that people held off and will be bring the more precocious ones to April or to Maryland. As a whole, this is an outstanding group of freshman sires.
Sleeper Pick: Nashville (WinStar, $12,500)
Nashville had a quick turn of foot and was fast and precocious.
RANDY MILES
Top Pick: Drain the Clock
There are so many good ones out there. I've been impressed with the Life is Goods. They weren't early, but they are really starting to come on. It's crazy to say this because he is a $10,000 stallion, but my pick is Drain the Clock. They are so precocious. All of them, no matter what type of mare they have been bred to, they all seem to have extremely similar looks. They are very athletic, very willing. If they just carry on from what we're seeing right now, he's going to have a ton of winners.
Sleeper Pick: Jack Christopher
I sold three of them in the first sale and they all breezed fabulously and they sold well. One went in :9 3/5 and we loved her to death. We have more coming in the April sale and some going straight to the races. They are very unassuming. They are quiet around the barn. They are professional, but not high-strung. They are really grabbing at the bit. They're ready, sitting and waiting, and ready to do whatever you ask them to do. When you ask them, they are there.
CARRIE BROGDEN
Top Pick: Drain the Clock
I like both Drain the Clock and Flightline (Lane's End, $125,000), but they are totally different horses. I would expect the Drain the Clocks to be very precocious and the Flightlines to like more ground. It was exactly the same scenario that happened with Yaupon- Bolt d'Oro the year before that and Not This Time the year before that. There was a crescendo. Everyone is zeroing in on the stallion they love, and it is Drain the Clock at the 2-year-old sales. The 2-year-old people could afford all of the Drain the Clocks, but they could afford very few of the Flightlines. I think Drain the Clock can be the leading freshman stallion this year. If we're taking about who will be the leading freshman sire when their horses are three, I would go for Flightline.
Sleeper Pick: Mandaloun (Juddmonte, $10,000)
The Mandalouns have very much surprised me. To me, they breezed a lot better than they looked. Coming out of the yearling sales, I was feeling he might have some nice horses. We had a filly by him who was a nice yearling, but once she got on the track it was a different story. They have really nice strides, but also some speed. I was indifferent about him coming out of the yearling sales and was wowed by him coming out of the 2-year-old sale.
Tomorrow: More experts give us their selection for leading first-crop sire. Have picks you'd like to submit? Email suefinley@thetdn.com
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