Kinchen Leaves Nothing to Chance

With the possibility of a record $2.8-million payday this weekend, Jonathon Kinchen isn't leaving anything to chance. That includes taking a bath instead of a shower. As many horseplayers understand, superstitions simply cannot be ignored

Last year in his debut at the National Handicapping Championship, Kinchen had great success, finishing an impressive seventh and 11th with his two entries. This week in Las Vegas, the potential reward is much higher for the 33-year-old Austin, Tex. resident. By capturing the season-long NHC Tour, he is eligible to collect a $2-million bonus for winning the championship tournament, Jan. 28-30.

Kinchen has the maximum of two of the over 600 entries for the tourney with the oh-so long name: Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship Presented by Racetrack Television Network and Treasure Island Las Vegas. First prize in the 17th NHC is worth $800,000 and that NHC Tour bonus could give Kinchen a life-changing return on his handicapping investment. An added bonus is being named Handicapper of the Year at the Eclipse Awards Dinner.

The bathing angle developed quite by accident last year when Kinchen discovered that the shower in his hotel room was broken.

“So I just hopped in the bath,” he said, “Then I did well on Day 1. Obviously, on Day 2, the shower was fixed, but I was still in the bath. I brought it out once this year–I didn't want to waste it, I figured I'd save it for the NHC–but for sure I'll bring it out starting Thursday.”

Kinchen grew up in the Dallas area and was introduced to racing by his father, a longtime fan. A $5 across the board bet on Giacomo at 50-1 in the 2005 Kentucky Derby was the turning point and helped Kinchen develop a keener interest in handicapping. In addition to his success on the 2015 NHC Tour, where he won four tournaments and earned $75,000 as the tour champ, Kinchen had the best day of his betting life on Derby Day when he cashed wagers for about $150,000.

“I hit the Pick 6, I hit the super in the Derby, the Oaks-Derby double,” he said. “I hit the first leg of the Pick 6 and I bet like another $500 on the Pick 5. I felt like I couldn't miss, kind of like that movie “Let It Ride.”

While the 2015 Derby provided the biggest financial reward, Kinchen said he had the most fun at the 2014 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita, when Bobby's Kitten won the GI Turf Sprint on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita Park at odds of just over 7-1.

“I'd brought about 10 friends with me and I'd been telling everyone all week how much I loved Bobby's Kitten, and that love went back into the summer,” he said. “I literally got on Facebook to find Chad Brown's account to message him that 'You have to run Bobby's Kitten down the hill because he'll love it based on the fact he's a horse that pulls, and horses who pull tend to do really well down the hill because they relax a little bit.' Of course, I couldn't find his account. So it was one of those things where I wanted that horse there before he showed up. When he won that race from last to first in the most dramatic fashion that was probably the most excited I've been at the racetrack.”

Kinchen and his business partner and friend Robert Chow, who also qualified for the NHC, run an Austin real estate company that specializes in multi-family properties.

Texas's ban on Advance-Deposit Wagering accounts pushed Kinchen toward tournament play a couple of years ago. He said he was very active in 2015 tournaments, both on-line and in-person, and NHC records show he picked up points in 11 events. Despite his success last year with two entries at the Final Table of the NHC, Kinchen modified his approach in 2015, making four or five changes that contributed to a championship season. Among them was to move away from using a computer and return to his roots of handicapping on paper. Rather than swing for the fences, Kinchen has found success with consistency.

“I have two things that are important and the rest of it I don't let myself get too strategic–work really hard to be prepared and pick winners,” he said. “Focusing your attention on anything other than those two things I believe will result in a lot of bad days. A lot of guys say you have to get a 'cap' horse, or 20-1 shot, or you only need to have two winners on the day and they have to be good prices. I really believe part of the reason I've had success this year is I've had no rules for myself. I prepare and I pick winners.”

Kinchen said he does not subscribe that to the maxim that a bettor cannot possibly be successful over the long haul.

“Obviously discipline comes into play and consistency,” he said. “I think that's probably what affects most horseplayers or just gamblers in general who are trying to make money at this. It can be a challenge. It can kind of get the best of you if you don't have discipline. Obviously, with some of the things that have happened, I'm up in life. I think it's definitely a beatable game, although it's not easy.”

As he approaches the tournament, Kinchen is determined not to get caught up in the pressure of trying to win nearly $3 million.

“I don't think of it that way,” he said. “Last year I was so scared to fail because I was new to the tournament thing. I was afraid to not do well and not validate myself that I fit in this arena of really good horseplayers. I was so scared and that motivated me into working really hard. Now when I look at why I'm motivated to do well, it's not really the money. It's the exact same motivation as last year. I just want to validate my place in this game amongst all these other handicappers. If I can just focus on that, everything else will fall in place. Focusing on the money, I think, is kind of a mistake.”