By Bill Finley
The main story last week was not a horse but a trainer. Bob Baffert, fresh off a sweep of the Triple Crown, probably doesn't have another American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) in his barn, but he will be well represented in the GI Kentucky Derby. Baffert won both 3-year-old preps last weekend, taking the GII Rebel S. with Cupid (Tapit) and the Sunland Festival of Racing S. with Collected (City Zip). Baffert doesn't have a starter in this weekend's major prep, the GII Louisiana Derby, but there are plenty of top horses from top stables in the race. The contest is a big one for several horses either in the TDN Top 12 or “On The Bubble.”
1. MOHAYMEN (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
Mar. 16 TDN Top 12 Rank: 1
O-Shadwell Stable. B-Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Kiaran McLaughlin.
Sales history: $2,200,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st, GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
1st GII Remsen S., AQU, Nov. 28; 1st GII Nashua S., AQU, Nov. 4
Next Start: GI Florida Derby., GP, Apr. 2
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on sire Tapit
Gulfstream linemaker Jay Stone agrees that Mohaymen will be the favorite over Nyquist (Uncle Mo) when the two clash in the GI Florida Derby. “I am going on the assumption that this will be a six or seven-horse field and Zulu will not be one of them,” Stone said. “I will make Mohaymen either 3-5 or 4-5 and Nyquist will be between even and 6-5, depending on how many others are in the race. This is the race the public wants to see even though they thought it would unfold in Kentucky. 'Mo' has the edge because it is being run over his home track, but Nyquist may be his equal in this race depending on who else shows. Remember, Nyquist is running for an extra million, so he might be slightly more pushed for this, but in the end I believe the public will make Mohaymen a slight favorite. Close call.”
2. NYQUIST (c, Uncle Mo—Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry)
Mar. 16 TDN Top 12 Rank: 2
O-Reddam Racing LLC. B-Summerhill Farm (Ky). T-Doug O'Neill.
Sales history: $400,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $230,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP; $180,000 Wlg '13 KEENOV.
Last Start: 1st, GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 15
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31; 1st, GI FrontRunner S., SA, Sept. 26; 1st, GI Del Mar Futurity, DMR, Sept. 7; 1st GII Best Pal S., DMR, Aug. 8
Next Start: GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
When is the last time an undefeated champion was the second choice in a prep race for the GI Kentucky Derby? Surely, it's never happened before. It's not that Nyquist doesn't get a lot of respect, it's that everyone is so high on Mohaymen (Tapit). Aiming for a $1-million bonus, Nyquist will surely be primed for his best, but don't think for a minute that trainer Kiaran McLaughlin doesn't want to win the showdown badly. He's got an undefeated horse gearing up for the Derby. This is not the time to lose. Who's the better of the two? It will be decided on the racetrack.
3. DANZING CANDY (c, Twirling Candy—Talkin and Singing, by Songandaprayer)
Mar. 16 TDN Top 12 Rank: 3
O-Halo Farms, Jim & Diane Bashor. B-Halo Farms. T-Clifford W. Sise, Jr.
Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Danzing Candy
Just because 'TDN Rising Star' Danzing Candy won the GII San Felipe S. in wire-to-wire fashion doesn't mean that he has to have the lead. At least that is the opinion of his trainer, Cliff Sise Jr. “We didn't want to change anything last time in the San Felipe,” he said. “But [jockey] Mike [Smith] has always said he can rate. Being down in the two hole in the San Felipe, we decided not to change anything and go right for the lead. If somebody wanted to send hard we would have laid second. In the morning, I have already trained him to come off the pace and he's good at it. He's nice and relaxed.” His rematch with Mor Spirit (Eskendereya) in the GI Santa Anita Derby will be a compelling one.
4. MOR SPIRIT (r, Eskendereya–Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union)
Mar. 16 TDN Top 12 Rank: 4
O-Michael Lund Petersen. B-Elkstone Group LLC (PA). T-Bob Baffert.
Sales history: $650,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $85,000 Ylg '14 FTKOCT.
Last Start: 2nd, GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Robert B. Lewis S., Feb. 6, SA; 1st, GI Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 19
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Mor Spirit
Should we put a line through his performance in the GII San Felipe S.? While it was far from a bad race for Mor Spirit, it did knock him down a peg on most rankings since he was second-best behind Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy). Was that the best Mor Spirit has or did a botched workout prior to the San Felipe catch up with him? That question should be answered in the GI Santa Anita Derby. Even with the big effort by Cupid (Tapit) in the GII Rebel S., he remains Bob Baffert's top gun.
5. GUN RUNNER (c, Candy Ride {Arg}—Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway)
Mar. 16 TDN Top 12 Rank: 5
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC & Three Chimneys Farm. B-Besilu Stables. T-Steve Asmussen.
Last Start: 1st, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 20
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Gun Runner
Considering that the GII Louisiana Derby will be only the second start this year for Gun Runner, his connections believe he will improve this Saturday off his win in the GII Risen Star S. “That is what we are hoping,” said David Fiske, the racing manager for Winchell Thoroughbreds, when asked if we will see a better Gun Runner this time out. “The way he has trained between the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby this week he's doing as well as he can do. He fired off a bullet work [five furlongs in 1:00 3/5] last week and a little maintenance work [four furlongs in :50 4/5] Monday and came out of that in great shape.” Gun Runner drew post one and Fiske said that while he would have rather drawn more towards the middle, he hopes Gun Runner will get the same ground-saving trip he got in the Risen Star.
6. CUPID (c, Tapit—Pretty 'n Smart, by Beau Genius)
Mar. 16 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble
O-Michael B. Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier & Derrick Smith. B-JKG Thoroughbreds. T-Bob Baffert
Sales history: $900,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP
Last Start: 1st, GII Rebel S., OP, March 19
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, April 16
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on sire Tapit
Few major Derby contenders in recent years have come so far so fast. Just 46 days ago, Cupid was a maiden. Now he's a Grade II winner and will likely be the favorite in the GI Arkansas Derby. This is not your typical Bob Baffert-trained horse, as he took some time to find himself and needed three starts to break his maiden. It could be that he has yet to peak, a scary thought for his opponents down the road. With his breeding, there's every reason to believe he can develop into a top horse. Baffert's magic at Oaklawn is beyond unbelievable.
7. SHAGAF (c, Bernardini—Muhaawara, by Unbridled's Song)
Mar. 16 TDN Top 12 Rank: 6
O/B-Shadwell Stable. T-Chad Brown
Last Start: 1st, GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 5
Next Start: GI Wood Memorial, AQU, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Training only since 2007, Chad Brown had soared to the top of conditioner pecking order in no time. But, as everyone knows, the one thing he has yet to do is develop a 3-year-old male dirt star. In 'TDN Rising Star' Shagaf, he's got his best chance yet. Brown did win the 2014 GII Remsen S. with Leave the Light On (Horse Greeley), but that colt never panned out. Prior to this year, his best Derby prospect was no doubt Normandy Invasion (Tapit), who was second in the GI Wood Memorial in 2013 before finishing fourth in that year's GI Kentucky Derby.
8. GREENPOINTCRUSADER (c, Bernardini—Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance)
Mar. 16 TDN Top 12 Rank: 7
O-St. Elias Stable, MeB Racing Stables LLC & Brooklyn Boyz Stable. B-Oakbrook Farm (Ky). T-Dominick Schettino.
Sales history: $575,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 2nd, GII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 30
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby is a huge race for Greenpointcrusader, who has flown under the radar for most of the year. He's no doubt a talented horse, but he has not won a race since the GI Champagne at Belmont Oct. 3. If you try hard enough, you can make excuses for his loss in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the GII Holy Bull S., but it's time for him to deliver. Was the Champagne, a tremendous performance, a fluke or is this colt really that good? The Louisiana Derby should answer that question.
9. DESTIN (c, Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer)
Mar. 16 TDN Top 12 Rank: 8
O-Twin Creeks Racing Stables, LLC. B-James C. Weigel & Taylor Made Stallions Inc. T-Todd Pletcher
Sales history: $400,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP
Last Star: 1st, GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis, TAM, Feb. 13
Next Start: Undecided
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Trainer Todd Pletcher, who has been in Dubai this week, still has not plotted out a schedule for Destin or any of his other top-tier 3-year-olds…so we're going to save him the trouble and do it for him. We're sending Destin to the GI Blue Grass S. Outwork (Uncle Mo) goes to the GI Wood Memorial because owner Mike Repole loves to run in New York. That leaves only 'TDN Rising Star' Zulu (Bernardini). Pletcher is on record saying he doesn't want to go against the two-headed monster of Mohaymen (Tapit) and Nyquist (Uncle Mo) in the GI Florida Derby. We say go for it. Nyquist will pick up the $1-million bonus from Fasig-Tipton if he wins, and he's going to have to face those two in the Kentucky Derby anyway. You're welcome, Todd.
10. MO TOM (c, Uncle Mo—Caroni, by Rubiano)
Mar. 16 TDN Top 12 Rank: 9
O-GMB Racing. B-Hargus & Sandra Sexton & Silver Fern Farm. T-Tom Amoss.
Sales history: $150,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 3rd, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII LeComte S., FG, Jan. 16; 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Nov. 1
Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Everyone still wants to know if the offspring of Uncle Mo will succeed at the demanding distance of a mile-and-quarter. Trainer Tom Amoss has a good one in his barn in Mo Tom, who will compete in the GII Louisiana Derby Saturday, and he believes 10 furlongs won't be a problems for the Uncle Mos.
“Uncle Mo gets an A as to whether his offspring can get a distance,” Amoss offered. “I think Uncle Mo is going to be one of those sires that we're going to talk about like we've talked about with Storm Cat and Tapit. He's brilliant. This is his first season of 3-year-olds and I think they're going to excel. The distance question is one we're going to put to bed on the first Saturday in May.”
11. EXAGGERATOR (c, Curlin—Dawn Raid, by Vindication)
Mar. 16 TDN Top 12 Rank: 10
O-Big Chief Racing, Head of Plains Partners LLC, Rocker O Ranch, LLC et al. B-Joseph B. Murphy (Ky). T-Keith Desormeaux.
Sales history: $110,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 3rd, GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot, DED, Nov. 21; 1st, GII Saratoga Special S., SAR, Aug. 16
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
There are still plenty of reasons to be high on this horse, but it's time for him to deliver. Second in the GII San Vicente S. and third in the GII San Felipe S., Exaggerator keeps putting in decent efforts, but it takes a lot more than a decent effort to win the GI Kentucky Derby. Keith Desormeaux is an underrated trainer and might be bringing this horse along to peak in May and not in March, but Exaggerator needs to step it up in the GI Santa Anita Derby.
12. ZULU (c, Bernardini–Temporada, by Summer Squall)
Mar. 16 TDN Top 12 Rank: 12
O-Stonestreet Stables LLC, Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith. B-Ron Magers & Robert Marcocchio. T-Todd Pletcher
Sales history: $900,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $400,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP
Last Start: 2nd, GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Next Start: Undecided
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Ron Magers, the co-breeder of Zulu, is a legendary figure in Chicago. He is the weeknight news anchor for WLS-TV, the ABC-owned affiliate there. The 71-year-old newsman began his career in 1965 at a TV station in Eugene, Oregon. Along with partner Robert Marcocchio, he sold Temporada. The pair thought her daughter, Azedo (Mr. Greeley), had the ability to replace her in their broodmare band. But she subsequently died in a barn fire. Their luck turned for the better when they discovered that Temporada was in the 2007 Keeneland November sale in foal to Kafwain and they bought her back for a mere $19,000.
Click sire's name for Progeny PPs; dam name for Stakes-Winning Pedigrees; last race for video replay.
ON THE BUBBLE:
Airoforce (Colonel John): Worked five furlongs over the synthetic surface at the Ocala Training Center in :58 4/5. The comeback kid?
Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway): Will need to be the Comeback Kid II after his poor showing in the GII Tampa Bay Derby.
Collected (City Zip): Bounced back with win in the $415,000 Sunland Park Festival of Racing S., but the race did not have any Derby points. He has just 11, may not be enough.
Creator (Tapit): Third in GII Rebel S., he's on the improve, but still has a way to go.
Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat): Is training in New York for Chad Brown. GI Wood Memorial could be next.
Frank Conversation (Quality Road): Drew the one post for Saturday's $2-million GII UAE Derby. Only seven in the field. Huge purse. Very smart to run him there.
Forevamo (Uncle Mo): Finished second in the GII Risen Star S. at 47-1. Is he for real? We'll find out in the GII Louisiana Derby.
Malibu Sunset (Bernardini): Drops out of the TDN Top 12 for the simple reason that trainer Bob Baffert is obviously in no hurry with him and time is running out.
Outwork (Uncle Mo): Runner-up in GII Tampa Bay Derby is another on growing list of Pletcher late-bloomers.
Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft): Didn't run back to his win in GIII Southwest Stakes when fifth in GII Rebel S. Deserves another shot in the GI Arkansas Derby.
Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect): Second in the GIII Southwest S. and the GII Rebel S., he keeps knocking on door, but needs to do better.
Click here to visit the Derby Top 12 section of our website, complete with video past performances, Equibase PPs, and Thoro-Graph sheets.
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