Belmont 148: A 'Closer' Look

The Triple Crown will go unclaimed for the 37th time in the last 38 years after Exaggerator (Curlin) pulled away in the final eighth of a mile to best 'TDN Rising Star' Cherry Wine (Paddy O'Prado) and the theretofore undefeated GI Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist (Uncle Mo) in the GI Preakness S. at Pimlico Race Course three weekends ago. Nevertheless, this Saturday's GI Belmont S. does not lack for intrigue. It has attracted an eclectic field of 13, nine of whom contested at least one of the previous two legs in the series and just two–Exaggerator and Lani (Tapit)–that will have participated in all three races. As is often the case, the 'Test of the Champion' presents a supreme challenge to handicappers from a race-shape standpoint, particularly since many of the chief protagonists possess–or at least have possessed to date–deep-closing tactics.

Given a pace scenario that is murky at best, there is an argument that horses like Exaggerator, Cherry Wine, the latter's stablemate Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway) and GI Arkansas Derby hero Creator (Tapit) could be up against it if they drop too far out of it. In fact, in the eight most recent runnings of the Belmont, two horses led throughout (American Pharoah {Pioneerof the Nile}, 2015; and Da' Tara {Tiznow}, 2008) while the other six winners rallied from no worse than midfield. It should be noted that Summer Bird (Birdstone), who gave jockey Kent Desormeaux his only Belmont victory, was shuffled back to ninth with a half-mile to race after settling centerfield early in the 2009 renewal, but switched out wide into the stretch and managed to outfinish the pacesetting Dunkirk.

But if you want to back one of the aforementioned come-from-behinders, there are reasons to take heart. In 2007, Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy) had just one or two of her male rivals in the rear view for the opening mile before outslugging Exaggerator's sire in one of the more enervating renewals of the Belmont in recent memory. Jazil (Seeking the Gold) raced 12th and last for the opening four furlongs in 2006 before commencing a steady advance to decision Bluegrass Cat (Storm Cat), who raced much handier to the average pace that year. Afleet Alex (Northern Afleet) was still in eighth position a half-mile from home in 2005 before leaving his rivals in the dust, while Birdstone (Grindstone) raced two from the tail in 2004 before grinding out that dramatic defeat of would-be Triple Crown winner Smarty Jones (Elusive Quality).

So with those facts in mind, is it possible that the Belmont is a race the bettors overthink? It most certainly is, and perhaps the best strategy is to handicap intuitively. If that is the approach, Exaggerator is certainly the one to beat off his consistent body of work. He demonstrated that he was not just an off-track freak with a solid runner-up effort from well back in the Derby and was the recipient of a heady ride from Desormeaux in the Preakness, who let his mount slide up into contention through the middle stages, crucially not leaving him too much to do in the final quarter-mile. At the core, he is the best horse in the race and is in line to become the first horse in over six decades to finish runner-up in the Derby before winning the final two legs.

Cherry Wine was also given an outstanding ride by Corey Lanerie at Old Hilltop and the way he was finding the wire that afternoon suggests that he will be one to relish the stretch out to 12 furlongs at Big Sandy.

Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft) turned in his typically honest effort beneath the Twin Spires five weeks ago, rallying from well behind to just miss fourth. Luis Quinonez had done nothing wrong aboard the Donnie Von Hemel trainee, but the conditioner could not be faulted for reaching out to Hall of Famer Mike Smith, himself a two-time Belmont winner (Drosselmeyer {Distorted Humor}, 2010; Palace Malice {Curlin}, 2013). Connections have already expressed their intent to ride Suddenbreakingnews somewhat closer to the pace Saturday, and if able to produce the same finishing kick that saw him win the GIII Southwest S. in February, he could make some noise in the lane.

In 1997, an upstart named Touch Gold (Deputy Minister) came to the Belmont off a fourth-place finish in the Preakness and snuck home on the outside to derail the Triple Crown dreams of Silver Charm by 3/4 of a length. 'TDN Rising Star' Stradivari (Medaglia d'Oro) is less seasoned than Touch Gold was at the corresponding stage in their careers, but the dark bay could prove to be on par with that one in terms of talent. A romping Keeneland allowance winner Apr. 17, Stradivari loomed up into third entering the final furlong and settled for a creditable fourth in the Preakness. He will be the best-backed runner to race closest to the likely pacesetter Gettysburg (Pioneerof the Nile) and should be in a position to get first run before trying to hold off the barnstormers. Stradivari will try to go one better than his sire, who was a 16-1 chance when second to 70-1 Sarava (Wild Again) back in 2002.