Dr. William Gray

California-breds have long been the backbone of California racing. Since 2014, they've represented between 45% and 50% of all starters at Thoroughbred race meets in the state. Over half of all horses currently stabled in Southern California tracks are understood to be Cal-breds. A shrinking foal crop in the state, however, means that racing secretaries will have to rely on fewer of them than is currently the case over the next few years. Modeling performed for the TDN suggests there will be a combined 290 fewer Cal-bred runners competing in California...

The news has arrived thick and fast for the Northern California industry over the last couple of months, as racing operations have consolidated in the Southern half of the state. Few state industry stakeholders remain unaffected by these developments, certainly not the breeders, whose commercial decisions today ripple years into the future. The breeding sheds don't open for another couple of weeks. During that time, many currently undecided minds will be resolved. Among those California breeders currently canvassed, however, their outlooks for 2025 are a mixed bag. On the one...