2017 Graded Stakes: A Little Off the Top, but No Real Haircut

Despite a forewarning earlier in the year that the American Graded Stakes Committee (AGSC) might start reducing graded stakes designations to bring the amount of elite-ranked races better in line with the continent's downward-trending foal crops and declining number of overall races, there was no change in the total number of graded stakes when the 11-member AGSC released its 2017 slate Dec. 2. Graded status was awarded to 464 stakes for next year, the exact same number as the committee designated in 2016.

And although two well-established stakes on the Triple Crown prep-race trail got downgraded for 2017—both the Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Race Course and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct were dropped from Grade I status to Grade II—the overall number of Grade I races barely budged, dipping to 107 from 109.

“It's one thing to talk in the abstract about what you'd like. It's another when you're trying to reexamine everything and be fair,” explained AGSC chairman J. David Richardson in a Friday phone interview.

“If you look at foal crop size, we've gone from 37,000-38,000 down to 20,000-22,000, or in that range,” Richardson said. “The number of races has decreased markedly over time. Yet the number of graded stakes races hasn't really changed. I think it's a general thought of the committee over the last couple of years that we perhaps have too many graded races given the declining number of races and the declining foal crop. That's a world-wide view. The pattern committees in Europe worry about the same thing.”

But when asked if coming up with a balanced number of graded stakes was easier in practice than in theory, Richardson replied, “You bet.”

Andrew Schweigardt, who is both the AGSC executive secretary and the director of industry relations and development for AGSC's parent organization, the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association, concurred with Richardson, adding that the slight changes to the 2017 slate should be viewed as small steps toward achieving a longer-term goal.

“The [overall] number didn't change,” Schweigardt said. “The committee expressed a desire to work from the top down, and I think that's what they did in this session. It's a step in the direction that they plan on going. [Rather than] just hack off a bunch of Grade IIIs, it's going to be a multi-year process. The committee didn't feel it needed to or should be done all in one fell swoop in one year. So that's what you're seeing, the beginning of that process. If you don't have to vote, and make that call, and hear it from your peers, it's much easier to do in theory than in practice.”

Overall, the committee reviewed 790 unrestricted United States stakes with a purse of at least $75,000. Five existing graded races were upgraded and eight new Grade III races were upped from “listed” status. Fourteen races that carried graded or listed status from 2016 were considered no longer eligible for grading.

Only one race was upgraded to Grade I status for 2017: the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx, which in the recent seasons lured

GI Kentucky Derby winners Nyquist (Uncle Mo) and California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) and was won in 2016 by last week's GI Cigar Mile H. winner Connect (Curlin).

Parx director of racing Sam Elliott said he attended the AGSC meeting in Lexington Nov. 30, and had a “wow moment” when observing how the committee makes its decisions.

“There's no acrimony in those meetings,” Elliott said. “Sometimes there's some spirited exchange, but it's usually pretty collegial. But that was a momentous meeting to be at, I can assure you. Without naming any names, there were some people on that committee that showed incredible leadership in my opinion, and not because we got upgraded to a Grade I. They made two really, really difficult decisions that affected members that were on that board, and I came away very impressed. I think that board's going to get picked on a little bit for the things they did, but I just wish people in the industry understood they don't do this stuff light-handed. They realize the gravity of their decisions.”

Besides the downgraded Wood and Blue Grass, the only other Grade I race to get demoted to Grade II was the Mother Goose S. at Belmont Park.

Neither Martin Panza, the New York Racing Association's senior vice president of racing operations, nor Ben Huffman, Keeneland's racing secretary, responded to TDN requests for comment on the status of their races prior to deadline for this story. Both served on the AGSC this year.

Schweigardt underscored that the significant changes having to do with 3-year-old top-tier races were not premeditated.

“Was it determined going in that the 3-year-old route division had a target on it and that's where we were going to start cutting? The answer is no,” Schweigardt said. “The [subcommittee] discussions back in August [about cutting graded stakes] were just in general. There was no specific division or divisions that they decided they were going to come in and work on. It just sort of happened as they ended up talking about the 3-year-old route division. They spent a considerable amount of time reviewing that division, and you saw the results: Six downgrades, two at the Grade I level, and four at the Grade II level. I wouldn't be surprised if another division or two come under that type of scrutiny next year. Which ones they would be, I don't know.”

For 2017, there will be 107 Grade Is (representing 23.1% of all graded races), 128 Grade IIs (27.6%), and 229 Grade IIIs (49.4%)

“I think there was a general thought at higher levels that ideally, we'd like a wider base of listed races, [followed in order by] Grade IIIs, Grade IIs, and Grade Is,” Richardson said. “But we're not aiming for a 'pyramid' so to speak. What we're trying to do, I think, is make sure we don't have too many Grade Is.”

To accomplish that, Richardson said, “you try to balance history, you try to balance the importance of the races. Generally the time window that we look at is five years in terms of statistics and data. It's a balancing act, trying to get all of those factors right. One can always argue whether the committee did it right or not. To some degree you have to reward currency, otherwise the same [gradings] would continue in perpetuity.”

Richardson continued: “I think the goal would have been to decrease the [overall] number.But the hard lifting is at the high end if you're really going to make changes. There is no target, saying we're going to try to hit this or that number. But I think the notion is to take a more critical look at the races we have. I think it would not be appropriate to say we're going to do downgrades just based on the number of races, [yet] I'm not sure how you make that work through our system.”

Four races were upgraded from Grade III to Grade II for 2017: the Knickerbocker S. and Belmont Sprint Championship S. at Belmont; Woodford S. at Keeneland, and Penn Mile at Penn National.

Ten races were downgraded from Grade II to Grade III in 2017: the Peter Pan S. at Belmont; Smile Sprint S. at Gulfstream Park; Indiana Derby and Indiana Oaks at Indiana Grand; Commonwealth Derby at Laurel Park; Los Alamitos Derby at Los Alamitos Race Course; Monmouth Cup S. at Monmouth Park; West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer Park; and Lake George S. and With Anticipation S. at Saratoga Race Course.

Eight races were upgraded to Grade III status for 2017: The Belmont Gold Cup Invitational S., Intercontinental S. and Wonder Again S. at Belmont; Lukas Classic S. at Churchill Downs; Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf S. and Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint S. at Kentucky Downs; Desert Stormer II S. at Santa Anita Park; and Ohio Derby at JACK Thistledown Racino.

Four races were downgraded from Grade III to listed status, and 10 races were downgraded from listed to non-listed black-type status for 2017.