Bill Oppenheim: Countdown

In my 40-some years of reading form and betting on horses, one of the best angles I’ve ever found has to do with staying 10 furlongs, not nine furlongs, especially at Churchill Downs. I can recall three occasions in which this principle resulted in big payoffs. The first was in the 1993 Breeders’ Cup Classic, which was of course at 10 furlongs, but in this instance at Santa Anita, not at Churchill Downs. I had followed Bertrando his entire career, and though he did win the 
GI Pacific Classic at 10 furlongs, I always believed he didn’t really get the trip. I knew he was a bad favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year, and fortunately I hit the all button in the final leg of the Pick 3. I don’t claim to have picked Arcangues, the 133-1 winner under Jerry Bailey, but I did cash a $10,000 Pick 3 that day. 

In the 2005 GI Kentucky Derby, I remember I had made a bunch of different bets without a lot of conviction–Bellamy Road was the 5-2 favorite, with Afleet Alex at 7-2, and for some reason, with about five minutes to go, I bet a $1 Exacta Box with five longshots I thought had some remote chance to get the trip. I don’t remember who the other three were, but two of them ran one-two, Giacomo at 50-1 and Closing Argument at 71-1. Afleet Alex stayed on for third and won the subsequent two legs of the Triple Crown, and I collected almost $5,000 for my $1 exacta box–because they got the trip. 

My final case is a rare example of a 3-year-old I felt sure would stay 10 furlongs: I’ll Have Another in the 2012 GI Kentucky Derby. Creative Cause had caught Bodemeister to win the GII San Felipe, after which Baffert sent Bodemeister to Oaklawn Park where he led wire-to-wire to win the GI Arkansas Derby by eight lengths. But when I’ll Have Another nailed Creative Cause in the GI Santa Anita Derby, I thought, this horse could win the Kentucky Derby; he will get the trip. On the day, Bodemeister was the 4-1 favorite, Creative Cause was 11-1, and I’ll Have Another, to my astonishment, was 15-1. I had one of my all-time biggest bets that day. I made a few zeroes less than I’ll Have Another’s owner, Paul Reddam, but I was ahead for the year after that day. I bet him back at 3-1 in the Preakness, too, when Bodemeister was made the 8-5 favorite, and I remain convinced he was a certainty to win the Triple Crown when injury intervened and forced his retirement two days before the GI Belmont S. 

American Pharoah’s romp in last Saturday’s GI Arkansas Derby completed the major preps for this year’s Derby, now 17 days away. As we discussed last week, there are eight colts for which one can make a pretty good case, and I’m not even including among those some live 20-1 shots like GII Louisiana Derby winner International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus), GI Wood third El Kabeir (Scat Daddy), and GI Arkansas Derby second Far Right (Notional). All three of them do look likely candidates to stay the trip after their last races, but it is questionable whether they really have the speed to win the race, and more have the profiles of colts who will run on to finish third or fourth. 

The fact there are eight top contenders and no standout means the betting should be wide-open. Included on the accompanying table are my guesses of the odds of the top eight, which I predict will range from 11-2 (really high for a favorite) to 15-1, with the others at 20-1 or higher. I envision the Baffert pair of GI Arkansas Derby winner American Pharoah (Pioneerof The Nile) and unbeaten GI Santa Anita Derby winner Dortmund (Big Brown) disputing favoritism; I’m predicting American Pharoah will start a slight 11-2 favorite over Dortmund at 6-1, but that could easily be reversed. There’s no question both these horses are good enough to win the race, with nine-furlong Beyers of 105 and 106 respectively; but, like all the major contenders, they both race prominently or in front, and we just won’t know if they will stay or not until they do or don’t. American Pharoah might be brilliant enough that he’s a class above, and it’s hard to fault Dortmund for toughness and grit. But neither is guaranteed to stay. 

Materiality (Afleet Alex) has the highest nine-furlong Beyer, when he won the GI Florida Derby with a Beyer 110, with Upstart (Flatter) running 108 in spite of the last three furlongs taking just under :40 seconds and a final time of 1:52:1/5. The track did look very slow that day, but to win, Materiality has to become the first horse since 1882 (that’s 133 years) to win the Derby having not raced at two, while Upstart has now had three hard races in Florida. 

Those are the four colts to have run Beyers of 105 or above. The accompanying table also shows the Racing Post Ratings (RPR), compiled by the Racing Post, of course, as well as the horses’ Equibase figures, calculated by the Equibase Company, which now compiles all official North American racing data. The Equibase figures use more like the 120-126 ‘normal’ top like RPR’s and Timeform, whereas the Beyer scale would be more of a 110 ’normal’ top. Materiality (E115) and Upstart (E113) have the two highest last-race Equibase figs, as they have the two highest Beyers, but the Racing Post rates American Pharoah’s Arkansas Derby win top at RPR 121, with Materiality next at RPR 118. 

Pletcher’s second horse is GI Blue Grass S. winner (Beyer 95) Carpe Diem (Giant’s Causeway), and we will get a definite tip as to which Johnny Velazquez and agent Angel Cordero prefer as “Johnny V.’ has ridden both Materiality and Carpe Diem in all their races. Which of the two he ends up on should definitely affect the betting. We envision GI Wood winner Frosted (Tapit) starting around the 10-1 mark, with California-based Firing Line (Line of David) and Dubai invader Mubtaahij (Ire) (Dubawi) around 15-1. Which of these is really guaranteed to stay 10 furlongs? 

A final twist, though: when so many of the main contenders have strong form at nine furlongs, is it really likely that they all collapse in the final furlong, and something slower up ’til then swoops to conquer? Often when so many of the better horses are on or close to the pace, it will be one or two which surge home and hold off the stayers; so not necessarily a case for the ‘All’ button. It’s one of the most intriguing editions of the Kentucky Derby I can remember. Further study is required. 

NEXT WEEK: A first look at the English Classics, after racing at Newmarket and Newbury this week. 

Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at bopp@erb.com (please cc TDN management at suefinley@thoroughbreddailynews.com). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.