Caulfield Discusses Avenir Certain

Sunday, Chantilly, France 
PRIX DE DIANE LONGINES-G1, €1,000,000, CHA, 6-15, 3yo, f, 10 1/2fT, 2:05.37, gd. 
1–AVENIR CERTAIN (FR), 126, f, 3, by Le Havre (Ire) 
     1st Dam: Puggy (Ire) (GSP-Eng & Nor & MSP-Swe), by Mark of Esteem (Ire) 
     2nd Dam: Jakarta (Ire), by Machiavellian 
     3rd Dam: Lunda (Ire), by Soviet Star 
(€45,000 yrl '12 ARQOCT). O-Antonio Caro & Gerard 
Augustin-Normand; B-Mme Elisabeth Vidal (FR); 
T-Jean-Claude Rouget; J-Gregory Benoist. €571,400. 
Lifetime Record: 5 starts, 5 wins, €868,030. Werk 
Nick Rating: A+. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. 
Click for the Racing Post result or the free brisnet.com catalogue-style pedigree. Equidia VIDEO. 
For me, mention of Le Havre still sends a shudder down my spine nearly 30 years after I attempted to drive the wrong way up one of the town's one-way streets, soon after disembarking the Newhaven-Le Havre ferry. 
Owner-breeder Gerard Augustin-Normand no doubt has a very different response. Not only is Le Havre his hometown, but he chose the name in 2007 for a yearling colt by Noverre. The equine Le Havre proceeded to become Augustin-Normand's first classic winner, sweeping to victory in the 2009 Prix du Jockey-Club. Unfortunately, the Jockey-Club proved to be Le Havre's final appearance, as tendon problems led to his retirement after only six starts. He won four of them, though, and proved a bargain at the €100,000 paid for him at Deauville by trainer Jean-Claude Rouget. 
I knew little about Augustin-Normand at the time of Le Havre's Classic success. In fact, Le Havre was one of 37 horses which carried the Augustin-Normand colors that year. However, Augustin-Normand is a financial analyst, a former head of asset management firm Richelieu Finance, and his wealth has enabled a rapid expansion of his racing and breeding interests. The 2011 season saw him set a French record of 98 winners, but that record didn't last long, as Augustin-Normand's tally soared to 130 victories in 2012, gained with a total of 175 individual runners. 
Now Augustin-Normand holds second place behind the Aga Khan on France's current owners' list, and he owes this lofty position largely to members of the first crop by Le Havre. Among them are La Hoguette, runner-up in the G2 Prix de Sandringham after a listed race victory, Auvray, a listed winner who finished a creditable fifth in Sunday's G3 Prix du Lys, and Orbec, runner-up in the Listed Derby du Languedoc. However, easily the star of the Augustin-Normand Le Havre show has been his dual Classic-winning daughter Avenir Certain, who is co-owned by Antonio Caro. 
Although Avenir Certain had lined up for the G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches as an unbeaten winner of three races, her starting price of 14-1 reflected the fact that she had yet to tackle stakes company. 
Her line had been cast in quieter waters, as is often the case with Jean-Claude Rouget's horses, which are based in south-west France. Avenir Certain won the Pouliches in style, eventhough her victory was a little tarnished by a long-running inquiry into a bump she dealt to fourth-placed Bawina. 
There was no questioning the impressive acceleration she displayed at Longchamp and that acceleration was again very much in evidence two days ago at Chantilly, when Avenir Certain swooped fast and late to take the G1 Prix de Diane. 
Appropriately, Avenir Certain was bred by Elisabeth Vidal, who, along with her husband Sylvain, owns the Haras La Cauviniere, where Le Havre stands. 
Le Havre's bright start–achieved with runners sired at a fee of only €5,000–raises hopes that the Blushing Groom male line has a new standard-bearer. Roughly 20 years ago, the Blushing Groom line looked poised to become one of the most important in Europe, thanks to a team which featured his outstanding sons Nashwan, Arazi and Rainbow Quest. Although Rainbow Quest did very well, his legacy has centered on his broodmare daughters rather than his stallion sons and the line looked virtually moribund. Now it is being given a further chance of survival through Le Havre's efforts and by the arrival at Lanwades Stud of Blushing Groom's much-travelled grandson Leroidesanimaux. 
Le Havre is a grandson of Rahy, who flew the flag so well for Blushing Groom during his long innings at Three Chimneys. His sire Noverre narrowly came out on top in the 2001 Poule d'Essai des Poulains, only to be disqualified after failing a dope test. He later confirmed his talent when he quickened impressively to take the G1 Sussex S. 
Noverre's prospects as a stallion probably weren't helped by the fact that he was a 3/4-brother to Arazi, whose only notable achievement as a stallion was to sire the multiple Grade I winner Congaree. Consequently Noverre's sale to India at the start of 2008 wasn't widely mourned at the time, as he had sired just a couple of group winners from the 182 foals in his first two crops. However, he sired Le Havre in his third crop and his fourth included a trio of Group 1 winners in Music Show (2010 Falmouth S.), Enora (2010 Preis der Diana) and I'm A Dreamer (2012 Beverly D S.), Just as Noverre was beginning to look a major coup for the Indian breeding industry, he died in 2012. To get back to Avenir Certain, it mustn't be forgotten that two other unbeaten winners of the Prix de Diane–Zarkava and Treve–went on to land the Arc. Fillies have also taken the last three editions of the Arc. 
That said, neither Avenir Cerain's trainer nor jockey seem convinced that she will cope with the extra 300 metres. It is easy to understand their concerns, especially when she is out of Puggy, a sprinter-miler sired by the miler Mark of Esteem. There are a few elements in her pedigree, though, which suggest she is worth trying over the longer distance. 
Avenir Certain is the latest in a long line of good winners descending from the Sweet Solera S. winner Lucayan Princess. This daughter of the stamina-packed High Line proved a real money-spinner as a broodmare, producing three sons which did very well internationally. One, Warrsan, was a dual winner of both the G1 Coronation Cup and the G1 Grosser Preis von Baden over a mile and a half, while another, Luso, was also a four-time Group 1 winner over a mile and a half.
Lucayan Princess' broodmare daughters also enjoyed widespread success, with no fewer than five of them producing a total of six group winners. One of them was Avenir Certain's third dam, Lunda, whose contribution was Darshaan's very smart middle-distance horse Blue Monday. Blue Monday once ran creditably in the Melbourne Cup over two miles. 
Avenir Certain's second dam is Lunda's daughter Jakarta, who visited Darshaan's son Mark of Esteem to produce Avenir Certain's dam Puggy. Avenir Certain is the third classic winner produced by daughters of Mark of Esteem, her predecessors being Treasure Beach (Irish Derby) and Masked Marvel (St Leger). 
One interesting feature of Avenir Certain's pedigree is that Noverre's dam Danseur Fabuleux was a 3/4-sister to Ajdal, the broodmare sire of Mark of Esteem. This creates 4×5 to Northern Dancer and 5×5 to that famous mare Native Partner, and the filly also has two lines of Halo (5×5). 
Although Danseur Fabuleux and Ajdal were bred along similar lines, they were very different in aptitude. Danseur Fabuleux's best effort was her close second in a Group 3 over a mile and a half–a distance which had suited her dam, the Prix Diane third Fabuleux Jane. Ajdal, on the other hand, made his name as a champion sprinter, but only after he had put up a bold show in the Derby. He was beaten less than seven lengths at Epsom, after fading only in the final quarter mile. 
To use the British idiom, it is going to be a case of suck it and see where Avenir Certain's stamina is concerned. But whatever her fate when she returns to action in the fall, she will remain a fine advertisement for Le Havre.