Guineas Contenders

by Bill Oppenheim

Of course you’re familiar with the old saying, “its price got shorter while it was sitting in the barn.” That was pretty much the case after two rounds of Classic trials the last two weekends in Britain, Ireland, and France. In spite of in-and-out results for their ‘sighters’ (War Envoy [War Front], fourth in the G3 Craven at Newmarket, and Dick Whittington [Rip Van Winkle], fourth in the G3 Greenham at Newbury; they did win a valuable Tattersalls sales race as a consolation prize, with Clear Creek Island [Fastnet Rock]), Coolmore’s Gleneagles (Galileo) hardened into around a 5/2 favorite (on Betfair, yesterday) for the G1 English 2000 Guineas on Kentucky Derby Day, May 2; and their top filly, Found(Galileo), also at around 5/2, is a similarly imposing favorite for the following day’s G1 English 1000 Guineas.

The reasons, as usual, are in the form book. Gleneagles, a full brother to 2014 G1 Irish 1000 Guineas winner Marvellous, out of a full sister to Giant’s Causeway, no less, made six starts last year, all at seven furlongs. He was beaten in the first of them and crossed the wire first in the next five, only to be controversially disqualified to third in his final start at two, the G1 Jean-Luc Lagardere. In between he won the G3 Tyros, the G2 Futurity, and the G1 National S., Ireland’s most important 2-year-old race. In the Lagardere, he finished in front of Full Mast (Mizzen Mast), the best French 2-year-old, and Territories (Invincible Spirit), who came back this spring to win the G3 Prix de Fontainebleau two weekends ago. They will be two of the favorites for the G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains– the French 2000 Guineas–on May 10.

When we look at the form of last year’s major European 2-year-old races, we have to take into account that the whole division was in the midst of chaotic scheduling which was an unfortunate side effect of the rise of British Champions Day at Ascot. The major British year-end 2-year-old races were shuffled around to the point nobody could make any sense of them–though hopefully that has now been alleviated with the placement of the 2015 Future Champions Day at Newmarket on October 9-10. The upshot was that last year the G1 Dewhurst and G1 Fillies’ Mile were run on soft ground; the Dewhurst was won by the first-time hooded 10-1 shot Belardo, who instantly propelled his sire, Ballylinch’s Lope de Vega, into orbit as Europe’s 2014 Leading Freshman Sire. But the betting market all along has rated Gleneagles’s Lagardere form higher.
Second in the betting for the 2000 Guineas (the colts’ race) is a horse who has been beaten in his last two races, Sheikh Hamdan’s Estidkhaar. A GBP200,000 yearling bought by Peter and Ross Doyle at Doncaster, by the very upwardly mobile Morristown Lattin sire Dark Angel, and trained by Richard Hannon, Estidkhaar was beaten over six furlongs on soft ground first time out, then won three in a row at seven furlongs, including the G2 Superlative S. at Newmarket in July and the G2 Champagne S. at Doncaster two months later. He was sent off hot favorite for the Dewhurst but evidently confirmed his dislike for soft ground when only fourth behind Belardo. He was 9/2 second favorite behind another Hannon trainee, Ivawood (from Zebedee’s first crop), for last Saturday’s key Guineas trial, the seven-furlong G3 Greenham S. at Newbury. As reviewed by Andrew Caulfield yesterday (click here), Sheikh Hamdan’s third string, the Oasis Dream coltMuhaarar, winner of the G2 Gimcrack but third behind Charming Thought (also by Oasis Dream but sidelined until Ascot) and Ivawood in the G1 Middle Park, upset them all under an inspired Frankie Dettori ride to win the Greenham, with Estidkhaar second and Belardo well down the field on the good-to-firm ground. Both Muharaar and Belardo look to be heading to France. Estidkhaar is now the leading English challenger, in to 7-1 on Betfair yesterday morning.

Another of Coolmore’s Galileo colts, Highland Reel, winner of the G2 Prestige S. at Goodwood last July 30 but not seen since, is third in the betting at 9-1. Saturday’s G3 Greenham third Ivawood won two Group 2s at six furlongs and was beaten a nose in the Middle Park at two; in the absence of any other compelling performances, bettors are sticking with the Hannon team’s big guns, betting that they really will both come on for these prep runs. Ivawood was 16-1 yesterday morning. A real outlier is Qatar Racing’s Elm Park, winner of the G2 Royal Lodge and G1 Racing Post Trophy, both over a mile, and by the obscure Phoenix Reach, who was trained by Elm Park’s trainer, Andrew Balding, to win 12-furlong Group 1 races in Canada, Hong Kong, and Dubai (G1 Sheema Classic, no less). This isn’t the first time the Balding team have pulled something out of the hat by an obscure horse they formerly trained: Side Glance, now an 8-year-old, has earned over GBP1.7-million and has made his last 17 starts in Group 1 races for Pearl Bloodstock, like Qatar Racing a ‘nom du course’ for Sheikh Fahad al-Thani. Just as Elm Park is by the obscure former Balding trainee Phoenix Reach, so Side Glance is by Passing Glance, another former Balding trainee turned obscure stallion. But Elm Park is the concern here, and his Guineas price has drifted to around 18-1 after Balding said he might miss the Guineas if the ground is too fast–and, after all, both his pedigree and his two one-mile wins at two suggest he is more likely to be a Derby horse than a Guineas one. The same could be said of Coolmore’s Ol’ Man River, by Montjeu out of Finsceal Beo, who was 2-for-2 at two, including the G2 Beresford S. He was into 20-1 from 30-1 on Tuesday.

Sheikh Hamdan has some nice 3-year-old colts this year: besides Estidkhaar and Muhaarat, there is G3 Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial winner Zawraq (Shamardal), but word seems to be he will be going up in trip. Another of his colts,Nafaqa (Sir Percy), trained by Barry Hills in what he says is absolutely his last season, ran second in last week’s G3 Craven S. at Newmarket. However, that did not look a strong renewal: the winner, Kool Kompany (Jeremy), is rated a good colt but not one of trainer Richard Hannon’s very best 3-year-olds. In fact, the first three from the Craven–Kool Kompany, Nafaqa, and Craven third Moheet (High Chaparral)–are all priced between 50-1 and 70-1 for the Guineas.

Two longshots worth a second look: Dutch Connection (Dutch Art), winner of the G3 Acomb S. and third to Gleneagles in the G1 National S., is trading around the 25-1 mark; and Al Shaqab Racing’s The Wow Signal, from Starspangledbanner’s first small crop, won the G2 Coventry S. at Royal Ascot, followed up by defeating subsequent GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Hootenany (Quality Road) in the G1 Prix Morny, but then flopped miserably when trailing home last of nine as the 7-4 favorite in Gleneagles’s (later Full Mast’s) Lagardere. He ran that day like a horse who was simply ‘over the top,’ and the rider, Dettori, got off him and said he was over the top. So the race just might have been a throw-out. He’s currently around 30-1 for the Newmarket race, and on his previous form he could be a threat to all if he runs either in Newmarket or in France.

FOUND MONEY
Now, back to the form book and, just as with the colts, the key season-ending race was in France on G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe day, in this case the one-mile G1 Prix Marcel Boussac, won by Coolmore’s Found (by–you guessed it–Galileo). But actually, Found is not the key horse in the English 1000 Guineas form: that is Cursory Glance, a homebred filly by Distorted Humor trained by Roger Varian for Craig Bennett’s Merry Fox Farm, which also–with the assistance of Merry Fox pedigree guru Gary Hadden–bred last year’s G1 Middle Park winner, Charming Thought. Cursory Glance announced herself by beating Sunset Glow (Exchange Rate), who has turned out to be an excellent yardstick (consider last two defeats by Lady Eli) in the G3 Albany S. at Royal Ascot. She then ran second to sprinting sensation Tiggy Wiggy (Kodiac) in the G2 Lowther at six furlongs, but stepped up to seven furlongs in Ireland’s G1 Moyglare S. and defeatedLucida (Shamardal), with Found third, Malabar (Raven’s Pass) fourth, and Osaila (Danehill Dancer) fifth.

Here’s what happened next. Lucida, trained by Jim Bolger for Godolphin, shipped to Newmarket and won the G2 Rockfel S., but then flopped as the 6/5 favorite in soft ground in the G1 Fillies’ Mile. That race was won by Together Forever(by–let’s see–Galileo), trained by Aidan O’Brien, and who is now second favorite (10-1) for the English 1000, with Lucida co-third favorite (12-1), along with Sheikh Hamdan’s (yes) Fadhayyil (Tamayuz), who was second to Lucida in the Rockfel. Fifth favorite (16-1) is Osaila (Danehill Dancer); this Al Shaqab filly, trained by Richard Hannon, was fifth to Cursory Glance in the Moyglare. She then won a Tattersalls sales race at Newmarket, followed by a trip to Santa Anita, where she ran a good third to Lady Eli (Divine Park) and Sunset Glow in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf. She made her first start this year last week, and won the G3 Nell Gwyn at Newmarket. So all this form ties together.

Unfortunately, Cursory Glance is sidelined and misses the Guineas, but hopefully will be back for the G1 Coronation S. at Royal Ascot. Her absence helps explain why Found is so short in the English 1000 Guineas betting. Found has only made three starts. She won her first start, at a mile, in which subsequent Group 1 winner Together Forever was second. She then dropped back to seven for the Moyglare, when she was third behind Cursory Glance and Lucida, before going back up to a mile for the Boussac. She won that decisively, from the Aga Khan’s Ervedya, from the very successful first crop by Siyouni, and Ervedya came back and aired in the G3 Prix Imprudence earlier this month. Ervedya is currently one of four fillies trading at around 20-1 for the Newmarket race. Saturday’s G3 Fred Darling one-two, Restart (Cockney Rebel)–the fourth winner of the Fred Darling in the last seven years for trainer Ralph Beckett–and the Lloyd-Webbers’ unusual yearling purchase, Jellicle Ball (Invincible Spirit), who was making just her second start at Newbury, are also around 20-1, along with Godolphin’s Beautiful Romance (New Approach), third in the G3 Nell Gwyn last week in just her second start. The only other two under 30-1 are Malabar, a Group 3 winner who was fourth in both the Moyglare and the Boussac; and Tiggy Wiggy (by Kodiac out of a Kheleyf mare, so inbred 3×4 to Danzig speed top and bottom), winner of the G2 Lowther (defeating Cursory Glance) and G1 Cheveley Park, both over six furlongs last year, but only third as the even-money favorite in the seven-furlong Fred Darling.