Juvenile Winner ‘Red’-dy for Return

You have to go all the way back to 1997 and Silver Charm to find the last winner of the GII San Vicente S. to have any impact in the GI Kentucky Derby. Today’s Super Bowl Sunday renewal of the seven-furlong event marks the return of GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile hero Texas Red (Afleet Alex), though horseplayers will–and probably should–build a case against him in a race that is clearly a means to an end. 

Runner-up as a 9-1 shot against Arlington maidens July 3, finished decently to be fourth in a Del Mar test July 26 before coming from well back to graduate in his first trip around two turns at the seaside oval Aug. 20. A perfect-trip third behind eventual Eclipse Award winner American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) in the GI FrontRunner S. when trying dirt for the first time Sept. 27, he took advantage of a pace meltdown in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, catapulting past rivals on the turn and into the stretch before powering home 6 1/2 lengths clear of Carpe Diem (Giant’s Causeway) and recent GII Holy Bull S. victor Upstart (Flatter). His work into this comeback has been steadier than it has been brilliant and he figures an overbet favorite as a suspect trip. 

The $200,000 question is: which direction to turn? 

Arnold Zetcher’s Punctuate (Distorted Humor) is one of two in the field who will attempt to give trainer Bob Baffert his ninth win in the race and fourth in the last five years (The Factor, 2011; Drill, 2012; Shakin It Up, 2013). He, too, was a 9-1 chance on the FrontRunner undercard and drew out in the parking lot, but he kicked it into gear in the stretch and passed half his 12 rivals in the final furlong to score by a widening 1 3/4 lengths and become a J “TDN Rising Star” J. The shape of this test could play right into his hands. 

Peachtree Stable’s Lord Nelson (Pulpit) looks to regroup here off a fifth-place effort to El Kabeir (Scat Daddy) in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill Nov. 29. The 7-5 chalk in that event off a 6 3/4-length runaway in the Oct. 13 Speakeasy S. going 6 1/2 furlongs. The chestnut is perfect around one turn, having beaten recent Oaklawn maiden winner Kantune (Kantharos) and GIII Sham S. hero on his Del Mar debut July 19.