Oppenheim on 2014 ABC Runners

Finding a racehorse that makes money is a challenge. By our calculations, only 8% of all the runners in North America in 2013 earned $53,500 or more ($53,492, to be precise). Recent studies show that it takes about $50,000, if not more, to have a horse in training at the major tracks for a year. So we have a rule of thumb, which is that a horse has to qualify as an ABC Runner–to be among the top 8% of runners–in order to for us to call it a “break-even or better” racehorse. Of course, if they do achieve “break-even or better” status, the sky’s the limit. But even once you get one in training, the odds are roughly 11 to 1 that, in any given year, it will become an ABC Runner. 
APEX ratings take snapshots, twice a year, of what the stallion picture looked like at that moment. We took that picture on July 8, a tick over halfway through the 2014 season. At that moment, the top 8% of North American earners had made $41,668. So, as we explained with A Runners, a horse can be an ABC Runner now, but might not qualify as one at the end of the year if they don’t achieve what will then be the year-end 8% threshold. 
Given that caveat, Coolmore’s Galileo was the number one NA/EU sire of 2014 ABC Runners through July 8, with 39. This wouldn’t be a huge surprise, since yesterday’s TDN Year-to-Date General Sire List (click here) tells us that he has 29 black-type winners (BTW), 49 black-type horses (BTH), of which 20 of the BTW are graded/group stakes winners (GSW) and 37 are graded/group stakes horses (GSH) in 2014. But WinStar’s Speightstown was running him close in number of 2014 ABC Runners, with 38. Speightstown has always scored very high on the APEX scales and, as a son of Gone West who has always done well in Europe (2.07 European A Index), his popularity is likely to continue to grow. He’s proven an extremely consistent sire of money-making “Break-Even Or Better” horses. 
WinStar doubles up in the top three by 2014 ABC Runners through July 8 with Tiznow (35), while Coolmore doubles up in the top five with Giant’s Causeway, tied with Gainesway’s Tapit, number one on the North American General Sire List; they each had 34 ABC Runners. Lane’s End claims the next two spots with City Zip (31) and Smart Strike (30), followed by WinStar’s Distorted Humor (28). Ramsey Farm’s Kitten’s Joy (27) and the Irish National Stud’s Invincible Spirit (26) round out the top 10. 
Four farms actually account for 20 of the 36 NA/EU sires with 20+ ABC Runners. Coolmore and its American satellite farm, Ashford, stand Galileo, Giant’s Causeway, and Tale of the Cat (21); and WinStar, as noted, stands three of the top eight. Lane’s End and Darley Jonabell each stand six stallions with 20+; besides City Zip and Smart Strike, Lane’s End also stands Candy Ride, top third-crop sire Curlin, and Lemon Drop Kid, with 24 each, and stood F2009 English Channel (20), whose first foals are 5-year-olds this year, before his recent transfer over to Calumet. Darley Jonabell stands Bernardini (23), Elusive Quality (21), Hard Spun (23), Medaglia d’Oro (25), Street Cry (22), and his son, Street Sense (20). Darley also stands Shamardal (25) and Teofilo (22) at Kildangan Stud in Ireland so Darley wins the overall title with eight of the 36 sires with 20+ ABC Runners this year. 
These numbers, however, pale in comparison to those achieved by the stallions at the Yoshida family’s Shadai Stallion Station in Japan. Nine sires in Japan have 30 or more 2014 ABC Runners, and all nine are Shadai stallions. Deep Impacthad just 83 ABC Runners, followed by King Kamehameha with 69. Symboli Kris S. (43), Heart’s Cry (38), Daiwa Major (37), Manhattan Cafe (36), Neo Universe (36), Gold Allure (33), and Zenno Rob Roy (30) complete the Shadai clean sweep. Oh, and all except King Kamehameha (Kingmambo) and Symboli Kris S. (Kris S.) are by Sunday Silence. 
Among F2011 NA/EU sires with their first 3-year-olds this year, Gilltown Stud’s Sea the Stars, Galileo’s half-brother and the sire of two 2014 Classic winners, leads the list with 14 ABC Runners this year. Maybe a surprising second is France’s Haras de la Cauviniere’s Le Havre, sire of dual French Classic winner Avenir Certain, who remained unbeaten when leading home a Le Havre one-two in yesterday’s G2 Prix de la Nonette at Deauville. I wouldn’t necessarily have predicted a revival of the Blushing Groom sire line through a son of Noverre, but Le Havre had 12 ABC Runners this year through July 8. After yesterday’s race Avenir Certain is 14-1 equal fifth choice for the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Betfair–not a bad ‘each-way’ (Win & Show) bet. She definitely won with her head in her chest yesterday and she is unbeaten. WinStar’s Pioneerof the Nile (11) was the leading North American F2011 sire by 2014 ABC Runners, while the NA/EU top five was rounded out by Banstead Manor’s Champs Elysees, a full brother to Dansili, and Taylor Made’s Old Fashioned, with eight 2014 ABC Runners each. 

F2009 SIRES: THE RETURN OF HARD SPUN 
In 2007, Street Sense became the first horse to complete the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile–GI Kentucky Derby double, thus putting his sire, Street Cry, firmly on the map. Then Curlin upstaged him in the GI Preakness, but the filly Rags To Riches beat Curlin in the GI Belmont S. Hard Spun, owned by Rick Porter’s Fox Hill Farm and trained by Larry Jones, ran in all three, finishing second in the Derby (set the pace, Curlin third), third in the Preakness (made the lead), and fourth in the Belmont. He came back after a short break to finish second to Any Given Saturday in the GI Haskell; finally got his Grade I win when dropping back to seven furlongs for the GI King’s Bishop; then finished off his 10-race 3-year-old campaign with a bloodless all-the-way win in the GII Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway, and set the pace and ran second to Curlin in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic at Monmouth Park. 
Darley swooped for most of the top 3-year-olds they could get that year. In 2008 Street Sense, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, along with Discreet Cat (a 4-year-old in 2007) retired to Darley Jonabell. In Europe they retired Teofilo,Authorized, and Manduro. At the time, Hard Spun looked like the last top-class son of the great Danzig to retire–though we didn’t know then about War Front, whose first foals were being born in 2008. 
Coolmore’s Scat Daddy had won the 2007 GII Fountain of Youth and GI Florida Derby but never ran again after finishing down the field behind Street Sense in the Derby. However, he edged out Hard Spun by $11,000 as leading freshman sire in 2011, though in 2012 Hard Spun was leading second-crop sire by $125,000 over Scat Daddy. In 2013 Darley scooped the first four placings on the third-crop sire list, with Street Sense, then standing a season in Japan, the leading third-crop sire, followed by Teofilo, Hard Spun, and Discreet Cat. Scat Daddy was fifth, with English Channel sixth. Cue Street Sense to return from Japan, Hard Spun to ship out for the 2014 season. 
It worked again: Hardest Core’s upset win in the GI Arlington Million last weekend was Hard Spun’s third Grade I winner of 2014, following Wicked Strong’s win in the GI Wood Memorial and Hard Not To Like’s upset win in the GI Jenny Wiley S. at Keeneland, both in April. Wicked Strong has of course since beaten GI Belmont S. winner Tonalist in the GII Jim Dandy, with a rematch due in this weekend’s GI Travers. It’s no wonder Hard Spun is on his way back from Japan. Now Darley just has to decide who to send next so it can make its stallion career. As you can see from the table, Hard Spun is a wide-margin leader among F2009 sires by number of ABC Runners, with 92. Street Sense and Teofilo run second and third, with 71 and 68, respectively. 
Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at bopp@erb.com (please cc TDN management at suefinley@thoroughbreddailynews.com). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.