The Arc: Can Anyone Beat Postponed

By Mark Cramer
Winner of six straight, five of six at the Arc distance of 2400m, including three Group 1 races, Roger Varian's Postponed (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) is a heavy favorite in the race books, now trending below 2/1. He defeated Found (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) by 4 ½ lengths at Epson in the G1 Investec Coronation Cup and Found came back to finish a near-up second in the G1 QIPCO Irish Champion S., the best field of Group 1 horses to race this summer. Nevertheless, none of the horses that took second place behind him, except Found, have left a significant imprint during the summer racing season. Furthermore, collectively the horses that finished third behind Postponed during this six-race binge show not a single win following that race. Either Postponed is like a Eucalyptus, killing all vegetation that comes near it, or he has managed to duck the best horses on the continent. Given the weight-for-age rules, Postponed must carry 7.7 pounds more than his 3-year-old rivals and historically 3-year-olds have outperformed older horses in this race. Faced with low odds, red-blooded horseplayers might try to beat this legitimate favorite.

Let's look at the competition. Makahiki (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) is this year's Japanese hope. Winner of the G1 Japanese Derby, he's been acculturating here since mid-August. He won a walk in the park in the low-rated G2 Prix Niel, the slowest of the three races on Arc prep day three weeks ago, following a long layoff. Since then he's had three weeks to get cranked up. He's second favorite in the books with a max of 5/1, hardly generous odds given that 18 Japanese horses have tried to win the Arc, with three seconds to show for it. Trainer Yasuo Tomomichi remains upbeat. The French rider, Christophe Lemaire, who knows Chantilly, could make the difference. Another plus; the second and third finishers in the Japanese Derby both came back to win Group 2 races. Watch the finishing burst of Makahiki in that race here. Two obstacles for Makahiki are post 14 and the fact that no Prix Niel horse has won the Arc since 2006.
Aidan O'Brien's Found (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) has finished 2nd in five straight events, with her last win coming in a Group 3 at the Curragh. She's already been roundly defeated by Postponed. Unlikely to win, she fires every time and has a good chance to improve on her better-than-looked 9th place finish in last year's Arc. Her come-from-behind second in the Irish Champion Stakes is a sight to see but all the early pace horses were backing up. One can make a good argument for Dermot Weld's Harzand (Ire) (Sea The Stars {Ire}), that is, if his Irish Champion Stakes injury when “struck into” is the reason for his eighth-place finish as the favorite. It's believable when you consider that Harzand won both the G1 Investec Epsom Derby and G1 Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby. His winning time in the Epsom Derby was 2:40.09s compared to the 2:43.54s of Postponed, the same afternoon, in the Coronation Cup. In both Derbies, Harzand finished ahead of Idaho (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) who came back to win the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes. Certainly we have enough evidence here to give Harzand, now at 7/1, a chance to defeat Postponed.
Third in last year's Arc, André Fabre's New Bay (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}) has struggled to reach the same level in 2016. But watch out; he ran much better than his current 14/1 odds in the contentious Irish Champion S., where he was the only one of the early-pace brigade to hang in there at the end, finishing fourth. Left Hand (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}), second to La Cressonniere (Fr) (Le Havre {Ire}) in the G1 Prix de Diane, won the G1 Prix Vermeille on Arc prep day, finishing ahead of legitimate Group 2 fillies, a notch below the top echelon but on the improve for trainer Carlos Laffon Parias. The angle on Silverwave (Fr) (Silver Frost {Ire}), who finished 10th in last year's Arc, is that in 2016 he joined the stable of trainer Pascal Bary! Silverwave has defeated two stakes horses that he lost to in 2015 while winning his first Group 1, the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. He followed up by winning the G2 Prix Foy in the quickest of the three Arc prep races, 3 ½ seconds faster than Makahiki in the Prix Niel. Silverwave (25/1 in the books) projects to improve and threaten.
Highland Reel (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), 7th in the Irish Champion S. had won the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. at Ascot, but the six horses from that field that came back to race, all underachieved. Order Of St George (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), looks more like a G1 Melbourne Cup horse with Group 1 wins from 14 to 20 furlongs, but the owners have made the Arc their priority. Classy St Leger competitors have a poor record in “shortening up” for the Arc. Savoir Vivre (Ire) (Adlerflug {Ger}) won the G2 Grand Prix de Deauville (4-horse field), when benefitting from a soft lead on a crawling pace. After the win, trainer Jean-Pierre Carvalho noted in TDN, “I think he is still a little tender for the Arc, which might come too early in his career even though he has a lot of class.”
Talismanic (GB) (Medaglia d'Oro) has won two Listed races, both poor fields and his best effort seems to have been as part of a pace duel in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club, in which he gave way grudgingly to finish fourth. However, none of the horses that finished behind him have raced with any distinction since then. The best Fabre magic will not protect this colt from the onrush of stronger horses. The Grey Gatsby (Ire) (Mastercraftsman {Ire}) needs a firm or good surface but even then regularly comes up short against the top stakes horses. He needs to remember his love for the Chantilly race course. Watch him win the 2014 Prix du Jockey Club here when battling for racing room from the inside. More recently this beautiful grey had the firm surface and shorter distance he prefers but still lost to Postponed by 10 lengths. Once a Group 2 winner, One Foot In Heaven (Ire) (Fastnet Rock {Aus}) seems outclassed, having been trounced in his most recent races by Silverwave. 6-year-old Siljan's Saga (Fr) (Sagamix {Fr}) was third to Silverwave in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, and continues to pick up checks, but in lesser fields.
The nearest Migwar (Ire) (Sea The Stars {Ire}) has come to group race credentials was a third in last year's G2 Prix Niel, 4 lengths behind New Bay. In 2016 he won a conditions race as the 7/10 favorite. None of the five horses behind him have won a race in 2016, and three of them are still maidens. The longest shot on the board will be Vedevani (Fr), he won a single race in a field of first-time starters at 7 ½ furlongs and then lost six straight, the most recent of which was a third in a Listed race, 3 ¾ lengths behind Talismanic.

Handicapping the Arc involves projecting improvement. Virtually every Arc winner in the past two decades has reached a new peak on the first Sunday in October. Here are the horses I will be considering. The 3-year-olds have more room for improvement. If Harzand has fully recovered from his injury, he can win. He had an impressive workout and gets a middle post. He's the most likely to defeat Postponed. If Makahiki has put in some hard training since his slow prep win, he too will have a reasonable chance to defeat Postponed. The filly Left Hand gets an extra weight advantage, carrying 11 pounds less than Postponed, but that edge might be burnt away with the extra effort from post 15. Among the older horses, the longshot Silverwave may have the most room for improvement, since he's been on the up escalator thanks to Bary. New Bay is another horse on the rise and his early pace style serves to keep him out of trouble. Postponed can defeat all these horses, but the odds differential is such that it's worth trying to beat him.