The Numbers Game

By Bill Oppenheim
    It’s no big secret that the Coolmore policy is that bigger numbers equal more chances to have a Household Name equals more seasons sold. Sadler’s Wells, 14-time champion sire in Britain and Ireland, averaged 100 foals per crop. His sonGalileo’s recent crops have averaged 160, so for him to be running second to War Front by 2008-2014 A Runner Index, and with a 4.17 Index (8.34% of runners), is probably nothing short of phenomenal. He’s had four times the number of year-starters as War Front (who has only had runners since 2010). (click here for 2008-2013 APEX earnings thresholds). 
    When we look at the lists by the number of A Runners credited to the sires in 2008-2014 (in these calculations, a horse is counted as a ‘year-starter’ every year it starts, and an A Runner every year its earnings reach that year’s A Runner earnings threshold), Galileo’s stature is evident. He has sired 144 A Runners since the beginning of 2008. Coolmore’s top U.S. sire, Ashford Farm’s Giant’s Causeway, is a distant second, with 108 A Runners. Ten other sires have between 70-90 A Runners. Lane’s End’s Smart Strike (89) ranks third (these files all taken from data for 712 North American and European sires), followed by Juddmonte’s Dansili (87). WinStar’s Speightstown (85) rounds out the top five. 
    Coolmore also stood Montjeu (81), ranked sixth, and Danehill Dancer (75), tied for eighth. Juddmonte’s Oasis Dream (76) ranks seventh, with Darley’s Medaglia d’Oro (75), Spendthrift’s Malibu Moon (71), Hill ’n’ Dale’s Stormy Atlantic (71), and Gainesway’s Tapit (70) also among the 12 sires with 70 or more 2008-2014 A Runners. Keep in mind that sires with first foals 2006 (first runners 2008) and earlier will be the only ones to have had runners every year beginning in 2008. Sires with first foals 2007-2011 will have had relatively less opportunity, so are more likely to appear on Index lists rather than lists sorted by number of high-class, or good-class, performers. 
    Giant’s Causeway, with nearly 300 more year-starters even than Galileo, made up ground in the list of leading sires by number of ABC Runners (top 8% earners). Galileo has had 328 ABC Runners since the beginning of 2008 (roughly 50 a year for 6 1/2 years); Giant’s Causeway has 321. WinStar’s Distorted Humor is in a clear third, with 278 ABC Runners 2008-2014. A total of 14 sires have more than 200 ABC Runners. Speightstown (244), Smart Strike (239), Malibu Moon (232), Oasis Dream (229), and Danehill Dancer (223) fill the next five places, followed by Cheveley Park’s Pivotal (216); Dansili (211); Stormy Atlantic (210); Tapit (208); Lane’s End’s Lemon Drop Kid (205); and Montjeu (203). 
    Consistency is the watchword for high ranking in the ABC Runner Index. In this measurement, 8.00% ABC Runners from year-starters equals an ABC Runner index of 1.00. Of 436 sires with 200 or more year-starters since 2008, Speightstown is now the number one sire by ABC Runner Index with a 2.47 ABC Index, which translates to 19.76% ABC Runners from year-starters–just a hair under 20%, in other words. A.P. Indy and Adena Springs’ Ghostzapper are tied for second with 2.40 ABC indexes (19.20% of year-starters). The top five is completed by perennial California leading sire Unusual Heat (2.39) and Galileo, whose 2.38 ABC Index for 328 ABC Runners from 1,725 year-starters translates to 19.04% ABC Runners. A total of 14 sires have indexes of 2.00 (16.00% ABC Runners) or higher. Canadian sire Niigon, a son of Unbridled who died in 2012, is the outlier with a 2.33 ABC Index. Otherwise they’re all well known: War Front (2.32); Distorted Humor (2.22); Darley’s Hard Spun (2.11) and Dubawi (2.03); the leading third-crop sire, Lane’s End’s Curlin (2.03); Empire Maker (2.02); Medaglia d’Oro (2.01); and Lemon Drop Kid (2.01). Germany’s multiple champion sire Monsun, whose last yearlings are selling this year, and Giant’s Causeway each have 1.99 ABC Indexes. 
Younger Stallions 
    The deep recession hit the stallion market when the time came for 2010 retirements, sires with first foals 2011. There are 87 F2010 sires (retired in 2009) which qualify for APEX ratings, but that number dropped by almost a third, to a record low 59 APEX sires with first foals 2011. The numbers appear to have recovered for the sires with first foals 2012 (2-year-olds of 2014), but that we will have to wait and see about. 
    Of the top 30 F2010 sires–meaning their first crops are halfway through their 4-year-old seasons–by ABC Runner Index, only six actually qualified for the ‘big list’ of 436 sires with 200 or more year-starters. So, though it is inconvenient for the commercial market that so few sires actually have had enough runners for us to form a strong opinion, one statement which looks very likely to be verified is that Spendthrift’s Into Mischief is a bit of a freak, with 12 A Runners from 115 year-starters for a 5.22 A Runner Index. Goldencents, Vyjack, and Vicar In Trouble have all won Grade I or Grade II races, from his first two crops of just 67 named foals total. If he can sustain anything like those numbers, he could be really big news. New York sire Frost Giant (3.53) is making some big noise in his region, while French sire Literato (3.03) is the sire of 2013 Grade I winner Alterite, and Claiborne’s super-cheapie Horse Greeley (2.78) is the sire of recent GIII Belmont Sprint Championship S. winner Clearly Now. Hill ’n’ Dale’s Midnight Lute (2.63) is tops of the six F2010 sires with 200+ year-starters. 
    Runners by F2011 sires are only halfway through their 3-year-old years, so none have 200 year-starters as yet, although Coolmore’s Mastercraftsman (1.25) has 160 year-starters already, while Gilltown’s Sea the Stars (2.56) has 117 year-starters. WinStar’s Pioneerof the Nile is the runaway leader on this list, with a 4.94 A Runner Index so far. Adena Springs’ Canadian sire Giant Gizmo (2.88) ranks second, though with many of these sires as yet having fewer than 50 year-starters, of course this list is liable to change a good deal by year’s end. 
Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at bopp@erb.com (please cc TDN management at suefinley@thoroughbreddailynews.com). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.