The Week in Review: Revamped Triple Crown Can Work, Even with Quirks

With a healthy GI Kentucky Derby winner bypassing the GI Preakness Stakes for the second straight year and only two starters out of the 18-horse Derby likely to be entered on Monday, the long-debated realignment of the Triple Crown race spacing is edging more toward “when” than “if.”

It could happen as soon as 2027, which would be appropriate in the sense that the Triple Crown is already set for a major reset by reverting to established venues and distances after being in flux since 2024 because of the overlapping rebuilds of Belmont Park and Pimlico Race Course.

The 2027 Preakness is scheduled to be the unveiling of the modernized Pimlico Plus (likely under a “festival” setup with full construction not expected to be finished) after one temporary running at Laurel Park. The GI Belmont Stakes will be back home at the new Belmont Park, restored to its rightful “Test of a Champion” distance of 1 1/2 miles after being contested at Saratoga Race Course for three years at 1 1/4 miles.

The scheduling idea with the most traction seems to be re-establishing the series on the first Saturdays in May, June and July.

But traditionalists who are open to the concept of changing the Triple Crown–yet want the series to feature the exact same race spacing every year–are going to be out of luck with that methodology.

Right now there are always two weeks between the Derby and Preakness, and another three weeks until the Belmont, making for five weeks of spacing (not counting Derby day itself in the total of weeks).

But under the first-Saturday monthly scenario, the total number of weeks between the first and third legs of the entire Triple Crown would be either eight or nine depending on how the calendar falls in any given year.

In addition, the gaps between the first Saturdays in May, June, and July will always fluctuate between either four or five weeks.

So in some years there would be one additional week between the Derby and Preakness, and in other years the extra week would be between the Preakness and the Belmont.

In yet a third scenario (but not as frequently) there would be some years with just four weeks between each leg of the Triple Crown.

In 2027, for example, the Derby will be run on May 1. Under the first-Saturday template, that puts the Preakness five weeks later on June 5 and the Belmont four weeks after that, on July 3–nine weeks from first to third leg.

For 2028, the Derby would be on May 6, the Preakness four weeks later on June 3, then another four weeks to a July 1 Belmont. That's a cutback to eight weeks from first to third leg (over the next decade this would repeat twice, in 2033 and 2034).

The 2029 Triple Crown on a first-Saturday monthly schedule would essentially be a flip of the 2027 spacing: The Derby on May 5, the Preakness on June 2, and the Belmont on July 7. So  back to nine weeks in total, but this time just four weeks from Derby to Preakness, then five from Preakness to Belmont.

Some might argue that it's imperative for there to be no such fluctuations in the total number of weeks or in the spacing between the races so that the feat of trying to win the Triple Crown can be held to the same standard every year.

I see the point, but that might not be practical or possible.

For our sport, the important thing is that even though the proposed new first-Saturday Triple Crown gaps might fluctuate in a small ways from year to year, the challenge will be the same for every Triple Crown aspirant within any given year.

In the championships of almost every other American sport, the playoff structure has recently (and continues to be) altered and modified. First it was extra games in quarter- and semi-final series. Then the addition of wild-card qualifiers. More recently, the introduction of play-in elimination games.

Have all of those changes been widely embraced by purists? Certainly not. But it's hard to find naysayers who convincingly claim that those evolving concepts haven't added excitement and interest (plus more wagering opportunities) to the Super Bowl, World Series, Stanley Cup and NBA championships.

By retooling the Triple Crown–unlike in the aforementioned sports–the goal would be to achieve increased participation (particularly in the Preakness), while adding an equine safety buffer of time between races.

And it wouldn't be just the Preakness and the Belmont that would benefit. The supporting stakes on the Fridays before and on the day of the final two Triple Crown events would also improve, because the horses that compete in other divisions on roughly the same schedule will also be benefitting from extra time between starts.

Another schedule option being floated is the Derby on the first Saturday in May, the Preakness on the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend, and the Belmont on the Saturday nearest Independence Day.

Or why not just set the series at four-week spacing between the Derby, Preakness and Belmont and leave it at that?

In my opinion, the unappealing point of all these ideas is that they all involve at least some  coupling of either the Preakness and/or the Belmont to federal holidays.

Memorial Day weekend already has a strong association with a race–the Indy 500. Plus, it's a big holiday for travel and people are outdoors or on the move for the unofficial start of summer.

Independence Day is also a huge travel weekend, with people celebrating at cookouts and fireworks shows.

In the first-Saturday scenario, the Preakness would never get stuck on Memorial Day, because that holiday's last-Monday-in-May placement keeps it at least five days away from the first Saturday in June.

But a first-Saturday Belmont would almost always occur around or on July 4, because that holiday annually cleaves itself to the closest weekend.

The second plan mentioned above–Preakness and the Belmont both on Memorial Day and Independence Day weekends–puts two of the three legs of the Triple Crown directly against federal holidays while also in some years (like 2028) creating the additional quirk of the Preakness being three weeks after the Derby, then five weeks until the Belmont.

The third idea–just slotting the races every four weeks apart–creates the least conflict with federal holidays.

But in this case, it would always be the Preakness that got saddled with Memorial Day weekend, while the Belmont would never hit Independence Day weekend. Over the next decade, that would happen in 2027, 2030, 2032 and 2033.

I still favor the idea of the first Saturday of the month for each race. Major prep stakes from February through April are clustered on the first Saturday of the month, and that's when we run the Breeders' Cup. There can be value in establishing the first Saturday of the month as a time  when big things happen in horse racing.

Extending the series into July has another advantage. Beyond baseball, Independence Day weekend is traditionally light on the American sporting scene. If a Triple Crown were on the line, the Belmont Stakes would not have to face direct competition from basketball and hockey playoffs (which can go as late as June 20), like the Belmont does every year when those games are going full-blast in June.

Whatever tweaks might be implemented, here's another wrinkle–you might even call it an opportunity for racing–that will be unique to 2027. Right now it looks like there is a good chance there will be some sort of lockout, strike or labor stoppage that affects a portion or all of next year's Major League Baseball season. A revised Triple Crown could end up being conducted in a sports betting landscape that is devoid of baseball next spring.