Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires .com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets–highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DeRosa: GIII Sam F. Davis S. – For the sake of my ego, we're going to call Fact Finding an “alternative pick” in the Sam F. Davis, as the only move he made in the race won by McCraken was to back gamely through the field. Bankroll remains $490 on a dreadful 6-1-1-0 line.
GIII El Camino Real Derby – Hoping the morning line is accurate because I would absolutely bet Ann Arbor Eddie to win this race a third of the time (i.e. at 2-1). I expect Kona Dreams and Sheer Flattery to be in front of him on the far turn, but not turning for home, as his ability to finish while chasing speed in Southern California portends well for this trip. Selection: #3 Ann Arbor Eddie (2-1).
DiDonato: GIII Sam F. Davis S. – No Dozing didn't run a step… Maybe he was the one who didn't take to the track? Bankroll: $1160.
GIII El Camino Real Derby – I really hate to chalk out, but Sheer Flattery looked to me like a pretty legitimate favorite and hey, I've got a lead to protect here. He's faced some good horses in his previous outings, and was unnecessarily wide on the first turn and pace compromised last time in the five-horse GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Synthetic's a question mark, but I didn't at all mind his :10 1/5 breeze over the OBS Safetrack last March. Selection: #5 Sheer Flattery (7-5).
Sherack: GIII Sam F. Davis S. – Still can't believe how quickly Fact Finding backed out of it after sitting a perfect stalking trip… Bankroll: $590.
GIII El Camino Real Derby – Granted, if either of the two favorites take their dirt form to the synthetic, they'll be awfully difficult to top. That being said, Tribal Storm looks sneaky enough to take a shot with at a nice price in this compact field. His Oct. 23 Golden Gate debut sprinting on grass was about as visually impressive as it gets (came flying home in :11.94 after racing very far back after some early trouble) and, following a game optional claiming tally over the Del Mar dirt, he kicked off his sophomore season off a two-month break with a respectable third-place finish behind Ann Arbor Eddie when stretched to two turns for the first time. Tribal Storm has some foundation under him now, and if his grass form that he showcased on debut was any indication, this switch to the all-weather may exactly what he's looking for. Selection: #4 Tribal Storm (8-1).
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