Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires .com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets–highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DeRosa: GIII LeComte S. – Running Mate finished ninth at 4-1. Bankroll: $0.
GII Holy Bull S. – We're still in the 17-point portion of the GI Kentucky Derby points race, but it's impossible not to feel a little change in the air as this week's Kentucky Derby preps approach given champion and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Classic Empire makes his return in the Holy Bull and there are two other races as well.
I'm thankful for big names like Classic Empire and El Areeb showing up, respectively, in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream and Withers at Aqueduct because I need to get on the board after two poor performances to date. We bet to win an place here at Throwdown, but neither of my picks have even hit the board.
When it comes time to actually wager, I'll try to hook Irish War Cry up with the champ in gimmicks, but from a who's going to win standpoint it's awfully tough to oppose Classic Empire who looked so good when defeating the now-retired Not This Time in the aforementioned Juvenile. He doesn't even need to improve to lay over this field–just maintaining that form makes him a winner. Irish War Cry is interesting, though, and if he's not the top choice underneath the champ in exotics then that might be where my money goes. I like his versatility in the first two starts and the Laurel form certainly held well when El Areeb won the Jerome. Selection #3 Classic Empire (3-5).
GIII Withers S. – Speaking of El Areeb, I expect him to start the chalk train in the Withers. Sometimes you go against a big number in the slop, but really that number only vindicated his previous try, and there's no reason to think he won't be able to dictate terms here. Selection: #4 El Areeb (6-5).
GIII Robert B. Lewis S. – As for the Robert Lewis… well, someone is going to earn 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. At 3-1 morning line I'll bet it's the maiden Irap, who has never made the lead, but has numbers that say if Mario wants to get aggressive then a front-end theft is possible given the short field. I.e., based on the Brisnet.com pace ratings, Irap is actually faster early than Royal Mo, who won gate-to-wire last time. Selection: #2 Irap (3-1).
DiDonato: GIII LeComte S. – Or is it Lecomte? I still don't know… Totality seemed to hate the slop and was very rank–never a factor. Bankroll: $0.
GII Holy Bull S. – Classic Empire obviously stands out among this field on resume and form up to this point, but maybe he'll need one off the bench. Irish War Cry unleashed a powerful, sweeping move (and earned a solid Thoro-Graph number) when scoring first out at Laurel. Maybe he should've won by more than a nose last time, but he was forced to attend the pace since there was absolutely no speed signed on. He wants to make a run from out of it, and he should get the opportunity to do that this time while stretching out to a trip that figures to be to his liking. Selection: #5 Irish War Cry (15-1).
GIII Withers S. – El Areeb really seems to have this field in trouble, but there are a few up-and-comers who could give him a test this time. I'll take a shot with J Boys Echo, who was very impressive overcoming tons of traffic trouble to be named a 'TDN Rising Star' when breaking his maiden two back at Keeneland. He was a total wise guy horse in the Delta Jackpot, and just ran a weird race to be fourth. It seemed like he might've really hated the tight turns as he was under a very hard ride on the final bend and had trouble entering the stretch. The Romans trainee has reportedly been working well down in Florida in the interim, and I expect for him to run to the promise he showed back in Lexington. Selection: #10 J Boys Echo (4-1).
GIII Robert B. Lewis S. – Royal Mo reminds me of his Grade I-winning stablemate Gormley in that he's come out running early in his career despite trainer John Shirreffs being famously patient with young horses. He did well on the engine last time, and hopefully he'll be sent from the rail here and never look back. Selection: #1 Royal Mo (5-2).
Sherack: GIII LeComte S. – The maiden Arklow ran well in defeat to finish a close fourth at 6-1 with some traffic trouble in the stretch. Can certainly see myself playing him back next time. Bankroll: $170.
GII Holy Bull S. – With the overwhelming presence of last year's returning champion 2-year-old Classic Empire, the unbeaten Fact Finding will hopefully sneak in a bit under the radar. Stretching to two turns for the first time here, the speedy Smooth Air S. winner's best chance to upset the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile hero will come if sent aggressively to the front end. Selection: #6 Fact Finding (6-1).
GIII Withers S. – While the streaking El Areeb is the clear-cut horse to beat and certainly deserves to be heavily favored, Fillet of Sole isn't impossible at a price here. The chestnut ran like one that would appreciate more distance and racing experience while closing from far back to finish third in his first two career trips to the post sprinting last summer for his former trainer Dominick Schettino. Subsequently transferred to Todd Pletcher, Fillet of Sole has caught off tracks in two starts since, including a narrow maiden win over a loose-on-the-lead front-runner as the 1-5 chalk while making his two-turn debut at Parx last out. Let's see if a fast track and longer trip can take this son of Union Rags to the next level. Selection: #6 Fillet of Sole (10-1).
GIII Robert B. Lewis S. – Royal Mo, a solid debut second after dueling through hot early fractions, really caught the eye with a visually impressive rallying second-place finish behind the promising Beach Bum after badly missing the break at second asking at Santa Anita Nov. 6. He took care of business with a front-running tally at 4-5 when stretched to two turns at Del Mar three weeks later and has posted six workouts in Arcadia since for trainer John Shirreffs. With a rail draw, Royal Mo could be controlling speed in this five-horse affair, but if someone else tries to outfoot him early (Irap, one of three Doug O'Neill trainees, also has speed and adds blinkers), he's already proven that he has no problem passing horses, either. Selection: #1 Royal Mo (5-2).
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