Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires.com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets -highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DeROSA: GIII Sunland Derby Result – Two-for-two last week helped vault me on the gold medal pedestal for now, but I have no doubt that the gentlemen behind me aren't playing for profit, they're playing to win, so we're keeping our foot on the gas with our U.A.E. and Florida Derby picks this week. DeROSA BANKROLL: $3720.
GI Florida Derby – In the Florida Derby, I'll bite the chalk, as I just can't make enough of a case for any *one* horse to stake my pick on it, and I do see Audible as the most likely winner based on his Holy Bull performance. Storm Runner and Mississippi— one-two in an allowance earlier in the meeting—are the biggest upset threats, and I'll be using both liberally in exotics, but for the purpose of this exercise I'm happy with Audible's nose. Selection: #8 Audible (9-5).
G2 UAE Derby – In the U.A.E. Derby, I'm going with Reride, who absolutely would have been my pick in the Sunland Derby had he run there after winning the Mine That Derby. Instead I took the runner-up in that race—Runaway Ghost—and even though the Speed Rating for the win came back on the slow side (relative to other 3-year-olds), the win flatters the form enough for me to want to stick with a horse whose connections have performed well in Dubai in the past. Plus, the presence of Gold Town and Mendelssohn should keep the price square. Selection: #3 Reride (12-1).
SHERACK: GIII Sunland Derby Result – Peace never really got going and had to settle for a well-beaten third. With both of my opponents landing on the winner in that one, let's see if we can get a longshot home this weekend. SHERACK BANKROLL: $1910.
GI Florida Derby – Still kicking myself for not cashing on Hofburg last time after adding him to my stable mail following his better- than-it-looked debut fourth at Saratoga last summer, but a big effort from him Saturday can certainly make me forget all about that. The well-bred Juddmonte homebred covered all the ground from his outside draw in his comebacker and earned a solid figure while negotiating two turns for the first time. Hall of Famer Bill Mott heading to a Grade I off a maiden win? That's enough for me to give him a chance at double digits. Selection: #7 Hofburg (20-1).
G2 UAE Derby – Taiki Ferveur (Jpn) is worth a stab, especially at an expected big price in the U.S. pools. After encountering some early trouble last time, the chestnut sliced his way through a huge field while taking plenty of kickback in the stretch to finish a fast-closing second in Tokyo's Hyacinth S. He already has a pair of wins going about nine furlongs on dirt on his resume and he should appreciate the added real estate here if he gets some early pace to close into. Selection: #8 Taiki Ferveur (20-1).
DiDONATO: GIII Sunland Derby Result – Finally got back on track with Runaway Ghost's convincing win (+$790). Too bad Ed had him too and that he got bet down hard late, though. DiDONATO BANKROLL: $3380.
GI Florida Derby – I was a little tempted to swing for the fences with Hofburg, but instead I'll side with the shorter-priced but more likely Catholic Boy. His Remsen was very good and the form of it has held up well. He had an obvious excuse in the Sam Davis when trapped behind a very slow pace and being forced to make a wide move over a track that can be very quirky. Obviously, his past success at this distance is an advantage and he seems poised to produce a career top. Selection: #6 Catholic Boy (7-2).
G2 UAE Derby – He's taking a somewhat unorthodox route to Louisville, but what exactly has Reride done wrong? His only loss came in an oddly run Kentucky Jockey Club that has been extremely productive, and he was obviously flattered by Runaway Ghost's convincing win last week. Selection: #3 Reride (12-1).
Not a subscriber? Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts.
