By Alan Carasso
Try as they might, some classy horses have come to Sha Tin Racecourse over the past several years to tackle the locals in the Longines Hong Kong International Races, but have found the sledding to be increasingly tough. Over the last 10 years, Hong Kong-based runners have won more than half of the races and that percentage looks even better if filtering out the results of the G1 Longines Hong Kong Vase, which has gone to European representatives in nine of the last 10 years, including Flintshire (GB) (Dansili {GB}) last December. Designs on Rome (Ire) (Holy Roman Emperor {GB}) made it five straight for the home team in the G1 Longines Hong Kong Cup with a stirring, last-jump victory over Military Attack (Ire) (Oratorio {Ire}), while Hong Kong has not lost the G1 Longines Hong Kong Mile since Hat Trick (Jpn) (Sunday Silence) won it for Japan in 2005. Able Friend (Aus) (Shamardal) looks to make it 10 in a row Sunday. Three of the five most recent runnings of the G1 Longines Hong Kong Sprint have been annexed by foreign raiders, but the trophy has remained in Hong Kong seven of the last 10 years overall. A total of 53 horses–24 locals and potentially 29 from America, Australia, England, France, Germany and Japan–will load the stalls this afternoon for four races that should offer the best betting opportunities seen at the meeting in some time.
LONGINES HONG KONG CUP
THE PICK: Japanese-based horses annexed the Cup on two occasions when it was run over 1800 meters from 1988-1998, Fujiyama Kenzan (Jpn) at odds of 37-1 in 1995 and Midnight Bet at 42-1 in 1998. Agnes Digital (Crafty Prospector) was one of a remarkable three Japanese winners at the 2001 International meeting, taking the cup at just under 3-1 and a trio of runners from that country will attempt to add to that total Sunday. Staphanos (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) has touted himself this week at trackwork and can register a mild upset here. The mount of leading rider Keita Tosaki, the attractive bay colt kicked off his 4-year-old season with a good third behind Nuovo Record (Jpn) (Heart's Cry {Jpn}) in the G2 Nakayama Kinen, then came to Hong Kong for the G1 Audemars Piguet Queen Elizabeth II Cup, finishing runner-up to Blazing Speed (GB) (Dylan Thomas {Jpn}) and just ahead of Criterion (NZ) (Sebring {Aus}). He ran on late to be seventh to A Shin Hikari (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) in the G2 Mainichi Okan Oct. 11 and exits a runner-up effort in the G1 Tenno Sho (Autumn), in which he covered ground, but hit the line hard to miss by a half-length. The form of that race has held up, as Shonan Pandora (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}), fourth on that occasion, returned to win the G1 Japan Cup with Tenno Sho victor Lovely Day (Jpn) (King Kamehameha {Jpn}) third.
THE CONTENDERS: Free Eagle (Ire) (High Chaparral {Ire}) arguably has a class advantage on this group as he prepares to face the starter one final time. The G1 Prince of Wales's S. hero first off an eight-month break in June, he will turn back to his preferred trip for the Cup, having finished a troubled sixth to Golden Horn (GB) (Cape Cross {Ire}) in the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Oct. 4. Perhaps no horse as looked as good on track this week as Criterion. Despite a long and long-winded campaign, the chestnut, third in this last year, appears very well within himself and, save for being over the top, looks a top-three chance. If there is a question mark, it is how he will handle the cutback from the 3200 meters of the G1 Melbourne Cup, in which he was third, to the 10 furlongs of this test. Craig Williams has the call. Blazing Speed was forced to give Military Attack five pounds under the conditions of the G2 Jockey Club Cup 22 days ago and led late before the former Hong Kong Horse of the Year worked over the top of him. He can easily turn the tables at set weights.
CAVEAT EMPTOR: Designs on Rome will look to join California Memory (Highest Honor {Fr}) as repeat winners of the Cup, but he is having just his second run off an injury-enforced absence, is drawn wide and is likely to be short of his best.
LOOKING FOR A ROUGHIE?: Nuovo Record will try to join the likes of Alexander Goldrun (Ire), Pride (Fr) and Snow Fairy (Ire), who beat the boys in the Cup. She has form through the Japan Cup winner, having finished second to her in the G2 Sankei Sho All Comers S. two back and exits a near miss in the G1 QE II Cup at Kyoto last start. She's drawn well and Ryan Moore hops in the saddle.
LONGINES HONG KONG MILE
THE PICK: Though he took something of a shock defeat at the hands of Beauty Flame (Ire) (Footstepsinthesand {GB}) in the G2 Jockey Club Mile over this course and distance Nov. 22, Able Friend (Aus) (Shamardal) gives every indication that was a one-off result as he shoots to defend his title in the event he absolutely dominated 12 months ago. Simply brilliant from November 2014 through May of this year, the big chestnut came undone on the undulations at Royal Ascot, but returned to action with an impossible defeat of Gold-Fun (Ire) (Le Vie Dei Colori {GB}) under top weight of 133 pounds in the 1200-meter Premier Bowl H. Oct. 25. While hinting at first that he was a victim of circumstance in the JC Mile last time, trainer John Moore and jockey Joao Moreira came around to the argument that the first-up run had left Able Friend flat–a bounce, if you will. But his work down the riverside Thursday and surrounding gallops have Moore whipping out the 'cherry ripe' analysis and it's all systems go Sunday afternoon.
THE CONTENDERS: While it is true that Able Friend is a deserving favorite, it is also factual to suggest that the group that has assembled to take him on is much deeper than what he faced last year. Maurice (Jpn) (Screen Hero {Jpn})–pronounced 'Morris'–carries a five-length winning skein into this event. The neck winner of the G1 Yasuda Kinen June 7, Kazumi Yoshida's representative was forced to endure a wide trip in the G1 Mile Championship Nov. 22, but nevertheless came with a run in the stretch and went on to defeat Fiero (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) by a cozy 1 1/4 lengths. Ryan Moore only adds to the intrigue. Esoterique (Ire) (Danehill Dancer {Ire}), trained by the legendary Andre Fabre, looks to return to the form which saw her finish a length second to Solow (Ire) (Singspiel {Ire}) in the G1 Queen Anne S. prior to victories in the G1 Jacques le Marois and G1 Sun Chariot S. The ground was likely against her last time when only seventh at 4-1 in the GI Breeders' Cup Mile, but she'll get much sounder conditions underfoot here. Mondialiste (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) can certainly run a place here at monster odds if his long campaign hasn't exacted its toll. The GI Woodbine Mile hero was behind a wall of horses last time at Keeneland, but exploded onto the scene late to finish a clear second.
LOOKING FOR A ROUGHIE?: No 3-year-old has been able to shake up the Mile since Moyglare Stud's Additional Risk (Ire) took the inaugural incantation–the International Bowl–in 1991, but many on-scene observers are very much drawn to Japan's Danon Platina (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}). Last year's champion 2-year-old colt, he was a fish out of water when 11th to Duramente (Jpn) (King Kamehameha {Jpn}) in the 2000-meter G1 Satsuki Sho, but rattled home to best HK Cup aspirant Satono Aladdin (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) by a neck in the G2 Fuji S. Oct. 24. He missed the Mile Championship with a stone bruise, but he's got a turn of foot that can see him shoot past many of his rivals late.
LONGINES HONG KONG SPRINT
THE PICK: After finishing a bang-up second to the currently sidelined Aerovelocity (NZ) (Pins {Aus}) as just a 3-year-old in 2014, Peniaphobia (Ire) (Dandy Man {Ire}) is set to really and truly announce his presence on the worldwide stage as a sprinter of importance. Narrowly second to Sole Power (GB) (Kyllachy {GB}) and just ahead of Green Mask (Mizzen Mast) in the G1 Al Quoz Sprint up Meydan's 1000-meter straight last March, Peniaphobia was likely in need of the effort when an even seventh behind Not Listenin'tome (Aus) (Dylan Thomas {Ire}) under top weight in the National Day Cup H. Oct. 1, but improved for that effort and a stretchout to 1200 meters to be third to Able Friend in the Premier Bowl Oct. 25. Drawn wide last time in the G2 Jockey Club Sprint Nov. 22, he was rousted along to lead on a fast pace, but was out of fuel in the final 100 meters and was overhauled by Gold-Fun (Ire) (Le Vie Dei Colori {GB}). Race tactics will prove key here from the outside draw. With speed underneath him in the form of GI Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint hero Mongolian Saturday (Any Given Saturday) and from Japan's Mikki Isle (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}), there is the argument to be made that he could be best served by taking back and coming with a run. Conversely, if Mongolian Saturday burns away from the stalls and Mikki Isle is left, he could sit a soft trip outside a front-runner who is likely to come back to the field.
THE CONTENDERS: The job that trainer Richard Gibson has done with Gold-Fun has been remarkable, as he has rebranded him as one of the best short-trackers locally after finishing runner-up in the last two renewals of the Hong Kong Mile. Victimized by the stunning performance from old foe Able Friend in the Premier Bowl, the chestnut took advantage of the hot pace in the JC Sprint and charged home to best Peniaphobia as the even-money choice. Not Listenin'tome is drawn well and, if he can deliver one of his 'A' efforts, would not be a total surprise. He won the National Day Cup down the straight, but was a wide-trip sixth in the Premier Bowl. He attended that quick tempo last time in the JC Sprint before hanging on for third and could get the box seat this time around. Straight Girl (Jpn) (Fuji Kiseki {Jpn}) bids farewell to the races as she tries to improve off her third last year at 54-1. The race should be run to suit her off-pace style.
CAVEAT EMPTOR: There is much buzz about Strathmore (Aus) (Fastnet Rock {Aus}), as he struck some trouble in the Jockey Club Sprint, then rattled home to finish sixth, just over two lengths behind Gold-Fun. He could be the one in 2016, but at potentially single digits, he's under the odds.
LOOKING FOR A ROUGHIE: At the time of this writing, Green Mask was better than 80-1. There are enough red flags, to be sure: the right-handed bend, the foot bruise, a question about his class. He did go very close to Sole Power and Peniaphobia in the Al Quoz and may have been second with a better trip in the Breeders' Cup. He may flounder around there Sunday, but he seems useable, especially on the bottom of gimmicks.
LONGINES HONG KONG VASE
THE PICK: Similar to the Mile, Flintshire (GB) (Dansili {GB}) will have to deal with a field that is deeper and more talented than the one that he squared off with last year. Remarkably, the homebred was winning his first Group 1 when defeating the now-retired Willie Cazals (Ire) (Aussie Rules) last season, but he has since added to the total, as Vincent Cheminaud partnered with him to win the GI Sword Dancer Invitational S. in handy fashion at Saratoga Aug. 29. Runner-up to Golden Horn (GB) (Cape Cross {Ire}) in the Arc, connections decided a run in the GI Breeders' Cup Turf was risky owing to the ground and were originally pointing for the G1 Japan Cup. He later was withdrawn from consideration for the Tokyo feature and should be the one they have to beat, albeit at perhaps fatter odds than 12 months back.
THE CONTENDERS: Cannock Chase (Lemon Drop Kid) was seventh behind Free Eagle (Ire) (High Chaparral {Ire}) in the G1 Prince of Wales's S. at Royal Ascot, but was runner-up in the G3 Winter Hill S. Aug. 29 prior to an impressive victory in the Listed Godolphin S. Sept. 25. Sent off the 15-4 favorite in the GI Canadian International S. Oct. 25, he weaved his way between rivals to score by 1 1/2 lengths, and a repeat of that effort would make him competitive. On the negative side, Ryan Moore, who was in the irons that day, elects to stick with Highland Reel (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) in the Vase. One of three sophomore colts in the race along with Ming Dynasty (Fr) (King's Best) and Dariyan (Fr) (Shamardal), the bay won the G3 Gordon S. over this distance before cutting back to a mile and a quarter and making all the running in a driving rainstorm in the GI Secretariat S. Aug. 15. Fifth to Golden Horn in the Irish Champion S., he was a decent third in G1 Cox Plate Oct. 24. Preferment (NZ) (Zabeel {NZ}) becomes the first Hong Kong runner for Sydney's leading trainer Chris Waller. The 4-year-old, winner of last year's G1 Victoria Derby, came from well back to win the G1 Turnbull S. over 2000 meters Oct. 4. He's been well beaten in the Cox Plate and in the Melbourne Cup in his last two runs, but rates a look on the cutback to the metric mile and a half. Helene Happy Star (Ire) (Zamindar), the former Barley Mow, is the ride of Joao Moreira and merits a chance off his form over ths distance. Winner of the Queen Mother Memorial Cup May 9, he charged home but just failed to catch loose-on-the-lead Helene Super Star (War Front) in the G1 Champions and Chater Cup three weeks later. The bay was most recently fourth as the somewhat surprising favorite in the Jockey Club Cup, and the added real estate works in his favor here.
LOOKING FOR A ROUGHIE?: Hard to believe that a former winner of this could be the right longshot, but 2013 hero Dominant (Ire) (Cacique {Ire}) has that look. A horse that improves with his racing, the 7-year-old was down the field at any price in his first two runs this preparation over 1400 and 1600 meters, respectively, but he perked up in the Jockey Club Cup going the 2000 meters, covering his final half-mile in :45.17. Zac Purton, who was in the saddle two years ago, returns at the controls here.
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