TDN's Chief Correspondent Bill Finley is joined by Senior Contributing Editor Alan Carasso and Senior Racing Editor Steve Sherack to handicap Saturday's GI Belmont Stakes at Saratoga.
FINLEY: Picking Renegade (Into Mischief) to win the Belmont is a no-brainer. After he was knocked silly at the start of the GI Kentucky Derby, he overcame the trouble and ran a big race to finish second, beaten only a neck. Did his problems at the start cost him the race? Probably. Todd Pletcher is a master at having his horses ready for the Belmont after they inevitably skip the GI Preakness S. At 2-1 on the morning line, he looks like an overlay.
Having won nothing more than a maiden, Pletcher's Powershift (Constitution) is taking a huge jump in class, but he looks like the only speed in a race where just about everyone wants to come from well off the pace.
Considering he won the Kentucky Derby, 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Golden Tempo (Curlin) is not getting a lot of respect. A lot of that has to do with the fact that the likely pace scenario should be a problem for him. But he is a quality horse who will be giving his best down the Saratoga stretch.
Golden Tempo | Sarah Andrew
'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Chief Wallabee (Constitution) still has a lot of fans, many of whom are looking for more improvement from the Bill Mott trainee. But he's now had four starts and maybe this is as good as it gets. His trip in the Derby wasn't nearly as bad as some are making it out to be.
Commandment (Into Mischief) was a big disappointment in the Derby, but if he can run back to his win in the GI Curlin Florida Derby he will contend.
CARASSO: After getting sucked into 'TDN Rising Star' presented by Hagyard Further Ado (Gun Runner) in the Derby and after trying to get wayyy too cute in the Preakness with The Hell We Did (Authentic), I am going to try to keep it simpler and more straight-forward on Saturday with Renegade (Into Mischief). Zero points for creativity, right?
The $975,000 Keeneland September yearling has really and truly never taken a misstep in his six-race career, and if his comebacking victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes was perhaps a touch workmanlike, he stripped fitter still for the GI Arkansas Derby and duly delivered what I thought was the most striking piece of form on the Triple Crown trail (no disrespect to Further Ado's Blue Grass). He came away with a four-length victory and covered his final furlong full of run in :11.74. The rail draw has been much-debated–maybe it cost him the race, maybe it didn't, but he showed a new dimension when forced to bridge a double-digit gap and he nearly did it, only to be chinned on the line by Golden Tempo (Curlin). Of the two, the feeling here is that Renegade is the superior athlete and is less reliant on pace than the Derby winner. The price won't be great, but, hey, a win is a win is a win.
I should probably be lamenting the fact I didn't use Golden Tempo more prominently at Churchill, as we take pride in our 'TDN Rising Stars' presented by Hagyard, and there wasn't a compelling reason to jump ship as he stretched out to a distance that stood to work in his favor. Alas. Prior to the Derby, he had lacked a bit of a killer instinct and while he still has plenty of upside going forward, I am going to oppose him in the Belmont.
Commandment (Into Mischief) is another that can give his sire back-to-back winners of the final leg of the Triple Crown and feels the forgotten horse this time around. To be fair, he had two very tough races in the GII Fountain of Youth and GI Curlin Florida Derby and that he wasn't able to produce his best beneath the Twin Spires is perhaps understandable. The son of Grade I winner Sippican Harbor (Orb) didn't have the cleanest of trips in Louisville–many, of course, did not–and he stayed on evenly for seventh while no menace to the winner. He is battle-tested and loves a fight and if he's in it entering the final furlong, he may just outfight them.
Commandment | Sarah Andrew
As I said prior to the Derby, 'TDN Rising Star' presented by Hagyard Chief Wallabee (Constitution) really had no excuse in the Florida Derby and though his fourth last time looks good, have a look at the margins at the points of call. He really ran around there at one pace and wasn't truly dangerous and he's a short-priced play against for mine.
SHERACK: I was high enough on Commandment (Into Mischief) heading into the Kentucky Derby to give him another chance at what has to be a nice number here. Can't say that he exactly had a terrible trip, especially for a race like the Derby, but it also wasn't ideal, either, moving way too early into a hot pace and taking the overland route on the turn for home. We all know that the GI Curlin Florida Derby winner is capable of much better than that seventh-place finish. Let's see if Johnny V in the saddle is the difference maker this time around.
'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Emerging Market (Candy Ride {Arg}) gained valuable racing experience while making just his third career start in the Derby and didn't embarrass himself by any means–beaten just 7 3/4 lengths–after racing on top of a pace that completely collapsed. Will have the jump on his main market rivals if he's good enough.
Renegade (Into Mischief) may be the most talented 3-year-old from this crop–he was terribly unlucky not to wear the roses on the first Saturday in May–but will the Belmont set up as well for him as the Derby did? Will have to come out of his comfort zone a bit as the likely favorite here.
Still waiting for 'Rising Star' Chief Wallabee (Constitution), fourth in the Derby with some trouble in the stretch, to finish off his races like he did on debut. Could this be the day that he takes that step forward with second-time blinkers?
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