By Bill Finley
Dozens down, two preps to go. Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby looms as the last major prep of the year for the GI Kentucky Derby, and it's an important one. We'll find out more about Cupid (Tapit) and whether or not he's the real deal and, quite possibly, a worthy second choice in the Derby. The GIII Coolmore Lexington also is a final chance to pick up enough Derby points to enter the starting gate May 7, but some quality horses will likely be left out of the coveted top 20.
1. NYQUIST (c, Uncle Mo—Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry)
Apr. 8 TDN Top 12 Rank: 1
O-Reddam Racing LLC. B-Summerhill Farm (Ky). T-Doug O'Neill.
Sales history: $400,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $230,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP; $180,000 Wlg '13 KEENOV.
Last Start: 1st, GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 15, 1st, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31; 1st, GI FrontRunner S., SA, Sept. 26; 1st, GI Del Mar Futurity, DMR, Sept. 7; 1st GII Best Pal S., DMR, Aug. 8
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Nyquist
Nyquist seems to have survived a minor scare after he missed a couple of days of training due to an elevated white blood cell count. He's back on a normal schedule and the Doug O'Neill camp is reporting that all is well with their undefeated champion. It's probably no big deal, but any hiccup on the way to the GI Kentucky Derby is always a cause for worry, as it seems that everything must go perfectly on the way there in order for a horse to win. It will be interesting to see how heavy a favorite he will be in the Run for the Roses–are people actually now ready to jump on the bandwagon?
2. EXAGGERATOR (c, Curlin—Dawn Raid, by Vindication)
Apr. 8 Top 12 Rank: 9
O-Big Chief Racing, Head of Plains Partners LLC, Rocker O Ranch, LLC et al. B-Joseph B. Murphy (Ky). T-Keith Desormeaux.
Sales history: $110,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st, GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot, DED, Nov. 21; 1st, GII Saratoga Special S., SAR, Aug. 16
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Here's what we wrote about Exaggerator prior to his start in the GI Santa Anita Derby: “It's time to put up or shut up.” Did he ever “put up.” His win in the GI Santa Anita Derby was nothing short of sensational, as he thrashed a quality group of horses and a repeat effort very well could be good enough to win the GI Kentucky Derby. The question is whether or not he will run back to that race or return to the form where he failed to deliver in the GII San Felipe S.? He has already lost three times to Nyquist (Uncle Mo), so it's easy to argue that he's simply not as good as the likely Derby favorite.
3. GUN RUNNER (c, Candy Ride {Arg}—Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway)
Apr. 8 TDN Top 12 Rank: 5
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC & Three Chimneys Farm. B-Besilu Stables. T-Steve Asmussen.
Last Start: 1st, GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 20
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Gun Runner
The main question concerning Gun Runner is how do the quality of horses he has been beating in Louisiana measure up with the rest of the 3-year-old class? That's something that won't be answered until the day of the GI Kentucky Derby, but the Louisiana route to the Derby has traditionally been an unproductive one. Considering his lone defeat came in the slop, the connections must be hoping for sunshine May 7. Trainer Steve Asmussen is due to win a Derby and so is the Winchell family.
4. MOHAYMEN (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
Apr. 8 TDN Top 12 Rank: 2
O-Shadwell Stable. B-Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Kiaran McLaughlin.
Sales history: $2,200,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 4th, GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27, 1st, GII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
1st GII Remsen S., AQU, Nov. 28; 1st GII Nashua S., AQU, Nov. 4
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Mohaymen
Andrew Caulfield on sire Tapit
Despite his clunker in the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby we had him at number two last week. But we've dropped him two spots after 'TDN Rising Star' Zulu (Bernardini) performed so poorly in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. That's the same Zulu who finished second behind Mohaymen in the GII Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth S. You never would have thought it at the time, but maybe the Fountain of Youth was a weak race, as both Mohaymen and Zulu have now run poorly afterwards. A horse that once looked so solid now looks like a complete mystery.
5. BRODY'S CAUSE (c, Giant's Causeway—Sweet Breanna, by Sahm)
Apr. 8 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble
O-Albaugh Family Stable. B-Gabriel Duignan, William Arvin Jr & Petaluma (Ky). T-Dale Romans.
Sales: $350,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 1st GI Blue Grass, KEE, Apr. 9
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equine Line PPs
Andrew Caulfield on sire Giant's Causeway
Let's just call him the enigmatic Brody's Cause. How can a horse that looked so bad in the GII Lambholm SouthTampa Bay Derby look so good in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S.? The Brody's Cause camp will be happy to draw a line through the former performance and, if you can, this one is a serious threat in the GI Kentucky Derby. He's talented and classy and is bred to go the mile-and-a-quarter. With his horse having had just two starts this year and none before Mar. 12, trainer Dale Romans has clearly brought him along to peak on Derby Day.
6. CUPID (c, Tapit—Pretty 'n Smart, by Beau Genius)
Apr. 8 TDN Top 12 Rank: 6
O-Michael B. Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier & Derrick Smith. B-JKG Thoroughbreds. T-Bob Baffert
Sales history: $900,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP
Last Start: 1st, GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 19
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 16
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on sire Tapit
Hard to believe he was still a maiden Feb. 7. Now, he's the GI Arkansas Derby favorite and, with a win at Oaklawn Park, may just be the second choice in the GI Kentucky Derby May 7. “He's come around since January and really matured a lot,” trainer Bob Baffert said. “He can still be a little bit of a handful. Most horses by Tapit can get a little bit excited, so we've put a lot of work into to him to help him focus and to get him relaxed.” Baffert sometimes works his horses fast, but not this one. His last three works were in :48 1/5, 1:24 3/5 and in :50 flat.
7. DESTIN (c, Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer)
Apr. 8 TDN Top 12 Rank: 8
O-Twin Creeks Racing Stables, LLC. B-James C. Weigel & Taylor Made Stallions Inc. T-Todd Pletcher
Sales history: $400,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP
Last Start: 1st, GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis, TAM, Feb. 13
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
He looks even better now that Outwork (Uncle Mo) has come back to win the GI Wood Memorial S. Outwork was second best behind Destin in the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. He's clearly getting better with each start and looks, on paper, like Todd Pletcher's best Derby hope. Should he not fire, connections may be criticized for taking two months off between Tampa and the Derby.
8. OUTWORK (c, Uncle Mo—Nonna Mia, by Empire Maker)
Apr. 8 TDN Top 12 Rank: On the Bubble
O/B-Repole Stable. T-Todd Pletcher
Last Start: 1st, GI Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
The biggest knock on Outwork after his win in last Saturday's GI Wood Memorial is that he beat a maiden. Trojan Nation (Street Cry {Ire}) was a close second in his sixth lifetime start. So did Outwork beat a mediocre horse or did Trojan Nation come out of nowhere with a vastly improved effort? Outwork appears to be getting better with each race, but it looks like he's going to have to do even better than he did in the Wood in order to win the Derby.
9. MOR SPIRIT (r, Eskendereya–Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union)
Apr. 8 TDN Top 12 Rank: 4
O-Michael Lund Petersen. B-Elkstone Group LLC (PA). T-Bob Baffert.
Sales history: $650,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $85,000 Ylg '14 FTKOCT.
Last Start: 2nd, GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Robert B. Lewis S., Feb. 6, SA; 1st, GI Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 19
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Mor Spirit
Even though he was second in the GI Santa Anita Derby, it was a disappointing effort for Mor Spirit, who will go into the GI Kentucky Derby off successive losses. And the Santa Anita Derby wasn't even close as Exaggerator (Curlin) pummeled the competition in the slop. “He didn't run his race,” trainer Bob Baffert said of Mor Spirit. “It was the [sloppy] track surface. It threw the race upside down. But Baffert admitted, “The winner freaked. No one was going to beat him that day.”
10. MO TOM (c, Uncle Mo—Caroni, by Rubiano)
Apr. 8 TDN Top 12 Rank: 11
O-GMB Racing. B-Hargus & Sandra Sexton & Silver Fern Farm. T-Tom Amoss.
Sales history: $150,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 4th, GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII LeComte S., FG, Jan. 16; 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Nov. 1
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph Sheet, Equineline PPs
With 32 points, he's not guaranteed to get into the Derby as he's currently 18th on the list and could, depending on the results of the GI Arkansas Derby, drop below the 20th spot. If he were 21st on the list would owners Tom and Gayle Benson perhaps consider scratching Tom's Ready (More Than Ready)? Though he has more Derby points than Mo Tom, he's clearly not as talented.
11. MY MAN SAM (c, Trappe Shot–Lauren Byrd, by Arch)
Apr. 8 TDN Top 12 Rank: Unlisted
O-Sheep Pond Partners, Newport Stables LLC & Jay W. Bligh. B-Jay W. Bligh. T-Chad Brown
Last Start: 2nd, GI Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph Sheet, Equineline PPs
On what was an otherwise bad day for trainer Chad Brown, at least with his 3-year-old colts, there was one bright spot. In his stakes debut, 'TDN Rising Star' My Man Sam overcame the 14 post to finish a fast-closing second in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. A grandson of Tapit, My Man Sam appears to be going in the right direction, but a win by him in the Derby would be a surprise. My Man Sam is the only horse currently racing for breeder and co-owner Jay Bligh.
12.CHERRY WINE (c, Paddy O'Prado–C.S. Royce, by Unbridled's Song)
Apr. 8 TDN Top 12 Rank: Unlisted
O/B-Pacella Racing, Frank L. Jones Jr., Frank Shoop. T-Dale Romans
Last Start: 3rd, GI Blue Grass S., KEE, April 9
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph Sheet, Equineline PPs
He may go down in history as perhaps the most talented horse not to get into the GI Kentucky Derby. With 25 points, he's currently 22nd on the list and could fall further after more points are handed out in the GI Arkansas Derby Saturday. He may not be the best 3-year-old in training, but he's certainly not the 22nd best. That was proven when he ran a solid third last week in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. He missed running second by merely a head in that affair, a head that might have cost him a spot in the Derby starting gate.
Click sire's name for Progeny PPs; dam name for Stakes-Winning Pedigrees; last race for video replay.
ON THE BUBBLE:
Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy): The 'TDN Rising Star' took a huge fall in our rankings (was 3rd) after finishing a distant fourth in the GI Santa Anita Derby. Certainly doesn't look like a
10-furlong horse.
Fellowship (Awesome of Course): Derby longshot has joined the Mark Casse barn.
Lani (Tapit): With Derby points a major issue this year, the powers that be might want to rethink giving the GII UAE Derby winner 100 points. This horse is ahead of Mohaymen (Tapit) on the points list.
Majesto (Tiznow): Runner-up in GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby, figures to be overshadowed Derby Week.
Oscar Nominated (Kitten's Joy): $200,000 is a lot of money to pay to get a horse–who has never won on the dirt–into the Derby.
Andrew Caulfield on Oscar Nominated
Shagaf (Bernardini): Fifth in the GI Wood Memorial, hard to imagine the 'TDN Rising Star' can improve enough off that race to have a legit chance in the Derby.
Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft): Needs a big effort in the
GI Arkansas Derby to have the points to get into the big dance May 7. He has just 10 points currently.
Tom's Ready (More Than Ready): If Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) doesn't get in, he will have to go it alone for the Bensons.
Trojan Nation (Street Cry {Ire}): A maiden or not, he's on to the Derby.
Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect): Still another who will need to pick up some points Saturday at Oaklawn Park to make it to the Run for the Roses.
Click here to visit the Derby Top 12 section of our website, complete with video past performances, Equibase PPs, and Thoro-Graph sheets.
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