2015 Flat Season: 3-Year-Old Colts Preview

by James Willoughby

   John Gosden, 64 at the end of the month, is an outstanding trainer with an incredible transatlantic resume. He’s won the Breeders’ Cup Classic (Raven’s Pass) and the Derby at Epsom, the Arlington Million and the St Leger four times.Yet, missing from his list of accomplishments at the highest level is victory in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas on his home track at Newmarket. 

Last year, it looked as if the time had come. Off the back of a wildly impressive prep, Kingman (GB) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) ran on strongly to challenge, but, inconceivably, the colt was run down by a longshot named Night of Thunder (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) whom he would later thrash. Kingman turned out to be the best miler of his generation, but he could not get the job done off the strongest fractions he ever faced. 

Now, in the first act of what promises to be a memorable season of European Classics, Gosden has another chance in the 2000 Guineas, more than one chance in fact. As well as his wife Rachel Hood’s Royal Ascot winner Richard Pankhurst (GB) (Raven’s Pass), he has Hamdan Al Maktoum’s lightly raced colts Fannaan (Speightstown) and Faydhan as part of a five-horse entry for the May 2 Group 1. 

Faydhan is the most compelling of the three, despite having seen the track just once. He won a maiden (video) at Haydock Park last July, creating a good visual impression but an even better one against the clock. The sectional times, which are now collected in England by a growing band of devotees, described top-quality acceleration; the War Front colt drew six lengths clear of Dutch Connection (GB) (Dutch Art {GB}), despite running green and jumping a path. While injury prevented the winner from proving the projection made from his in-race data, the runner-up confirmed the strength of the contest when coming back to win the G3 Acomb S. at York Aug. 20. 

Faydhan has since recovered from his setback and is on target for the Guineas. Only the Aidan O’Brien-trained Gleneagles (Ire) is preferred to him in the betting, following strong support for the Galileo colt recently which suggests he is the stable’s number one Newmarket hope. 

Since the 2001 Epsom Derby winner Galileo retired to stud at the end of his 3-year-old season, the sire of Gleneagles has been responsible for the winners of nearly 2000 races and £69 million. These are staggering numbers for European racing, and one look at the season ahead in Europe suggests there is no end in sight to his hegemony. 

I have already examined the credentials of O’Brien’s and Galileo’s leading contenders for the G1 QIPCO 1000 Guineas and G1 Investec Oaks, Found (Ire) and Together Forever (Ire). Gleneagles isn’t quite such a lock because the Classic colts in Europe look to have more strength-in-depth than the distaffers. 

That said, Gleneagles should have won his fifth race on the bounce in the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (video) over seven furlongs on Arc day, the same card at Longchamp on which Found landed the G1 Marcel Boussac over a mile. Instead, Gleneagles was rightly disqualified from first after his otherwise-dependable jockey Joseph O’Brien let his father down with too whip-happy a display as his mount began to wander. 

Gleneagles has experience on his side in a Guineas bid, and the fact that the white smoke from Ballydoyle is signalling his pre-eminence suggests a lot about his talent. O’Brien has a boatload of similar prodigies for the forthcoming campaign too, and Ol’ Man River (Ire) (by Montjeu {Ire}), Highland Reel (Ire) and John F Kennedy (Ire) (both Galileo) all feature prominently in the betting for both the Guineas and Investec Derby June 6. 
I particularly like John F Kennedy who impressed in the G3 Juvenile Turf S. at Leopardstown (video) in September and is dripping with class. He’s out of the O’Brien-trained Rumplestiltskin (Ire) (Danehill) who won 2-year-old Group 1 races at seven furlongs and a mile and has already produced a Group 1 winner over a mile and a half in the Yorkshire Oaks winner Tapestry (Ire), a full-brother to John F Kennedy. 

It’s tantamount to March madness to start making bold claims before any of the major Derby trials have taken place, however. This particular ‘journey to the tourney’ has to take in the twists and turns of Newmarket, The Curragh, York, Leopardstown, Sandown, Chester and Lingfield before you could even put up a Hail Mary in terms of a selection, but John F Kennedy is at very least an exciting prospect to emulate his sire. 

While O’Brien looks more powerful than ever, it must be reported that the excitement around 2015 is a function of much-needed competition. Godolphin, who have been down at the very top level these past few seasons, have had a superb winter season in Britain and domestically in Dubai. Could this be the start of a revival in quality as well as numbers? It would be great for the sport in Europe, for sure. 

The sheikhs of Qatar have ground to make on their counterparts from Dubai in terms of influence, but they have already made their presence felt, most notably with the brilliant dual Arc heroine Treve (Fr) (Motivator {GB}). She belongs to Joaan Al Thani’s Al Shaqab racing operation, while his cousin Fahad has garnered a 2011 G1 Melbourne Cup victory for his Qatar Racing outfit and is also a big player. He owns last season’s G1 Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park (GB)(Phoenix Reach {Ire}) who is trained by Andrew Balding and was recently the subject of good reports in his build-up to a bid for the Derby, which could take in the 2000 Guineas as a kind of top-class trial. 

Qatar Racing has replaced its stable jockey Jamie Spencer with young Italian sensation Andrea Atzeni. With Godolphin hiring the similarly talented pair James Doyle and William Buick–the latter prized from Gosden’s stable–there will be added vibrancy in the jockey’s room before big races. Of course, the presence of Ryan Moore still towers over his contemporaries, having seemingly convinced the world he has no peers with big-race wins at fixtures like the Breeders’ Cup and Melbourne Spring Carnival to go with his domestic exploits. He has an amazing racing brain and iron-clad determination to succeed.
 
Race fans must also make the most of the last season to see reigning British champion Richard Hughes, following the announcement that he intends to begin building a training operation. The 42-year-old Irishman will leave a huge hole in trainer Richard Hannon’s operation, and one of the running narratives of the season will center on the identity of his successor.