Breakthrough Year – Bill Oppenheim

BREAKTHROUGH YEAR
by Bill Oppenheim
I know, there are plenty of people who say a ‘good gamble’ is an oxymoron, but when you think about the level of financial gambling involved in sire selection, there has to be some relativity included in the equation. One of the best applications of the APEX figures is to try to decipher which stallions are doing well enough that they are undervalued as sires of racehorses, regardless of their commercial stature. An even bigger gamble, is to try and read between the lines a little bit to try to decipher which sires may not have the big figures yet, but there is something in the numbers which tells you that they could. 
Which brings me to the subject of Smart Strike as a sire of sires. Of the 937 sires assigned year-end 2013 APEX ratings, probably the two sires which struck me as being the most likely candidates to have ‘breakthrough’ years in 2013 are both sons of Smart Strike, both stand at Lane’s End and both cost $25,000 this year to breed to – English Channel and Curlin. 
English Channel is the elder of the two. He was foaled in 2002, won six Grade I races – one at nine furlongs, the other five at 11 and 12 furlongs – on the turf, including the 2007 GI Breeders’ Cup Turf (on soft turf at Monmouth), and was named Champion Turf Horse that year. A few, not all, of these Smart Strikes can be slow burners. Smart Strike himself never ran at two. Curlin never ran at two and English Channel ran once at two, winning over 8 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga. In 2013, English Channel had eight A Runners, all eight were from his first crop of 4-year-olds, and he had a total of 13 four-year-old ABC Runners last year. That’s a lot of decent horses running for you. At the end of 2013 English Channel’s A Runner Index (ARI) was 2.67, which ranked him only behind Dark Angel (2.86) among F2009 sires with 200 or more year-starters through the end of 2013 and ahead of Discreet Cat (2.42), Street Sense (2.15), Teofilo (2.10), and Dutch Art (1.99). He also has an ABC Index of 1.62, which is actually pretty good for more of a middle-distance sire. Significantly, his runners are showing marked improvement each year: his 2-year-old ABC Index is just 0.48; he is 1.62 for 3-year-olds, and 2.28 for his first 4-year-olds. With the 2014 season not even a month old, he is in the top 20 on the 2014 TDN Year-to-Date General Sire List (click here), and is the leading 2014 sire of individual black-type winners, with four already. Going up! Click fs21field to read Andrew Caulfield’s Jan. 14 column covering English Channel. 
For his part, Curlin was Horse of The Year twice, is the all-time leading money-earner trained in North America ($10.5-million), and won seven Grade I races at three and four, including the GI Preakness S., GI Breeders’ Cup Classic, and G1 Dubai World Cup. He never even ran at two. Though he had only two A Runners (0.66) through the end of 2013, one of them is the GI Belmont S. winner Palace Malice, who remains in training and is also one of 15 three-year-old ABC Runners in Curlin’s first crop of 3-year-olds in 2013. His 2-year-old ABC Runner Index (0.97) is a little more respectable, but his 3-year-old ABC Index, for his first crop last year, was 2.30. He’s the leading third-crop sire both by earnings and by number of 2014 winners with 13 already this year, including three 4-year-old black-type horses last Saturday, and several promising 3-year-old winners, including Santa Anita J “TDN Rising Star” J Texas Ryano, and the good Gulfstream Park allowance winner and J “TDN Rising Star” J Top Billing, also a winner last Saturday. He also had another J “TDN Rising Star” J, the 3-year-old filly Diversy Harbor, on Sunday. Hey, there is no crystal ball – he might end up with two A Runners at the end of 2014, but equally (and I think this is more likely) Curlin could be a sire poised for a real breakthrough year. 
Not all Smart Strikes are slow burners. His age ratings are very consistent, including an impressive 1.88 for 2-year-old ABC Runners. One of his best 2-year-olds was Square Eddie, who was bought by Jamie McCalmont for Paul Reddam after running second in the six-furlong Sirenia S. at Kempton Park on the all-weather in September of his 2-year-old year. In his first run off the plane he won the GI Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and his second he was beaten only by Midshipman (Unbridled’s Song) in the 2008 GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita; both those runs were also on all-weather courses. He placed in two GI Kentucky Derby preps at one-mile plus at three, but was then on the bench until the fall, when he was re-invented as a sprinter. After missing his entire 4-year-old year when he was siring his first crop at Vessels Farm in California, in his first start at five, after Santa Anita went back to dirt, he ran a half-mile in :43 2/5 on the way to setting a new 6 1/2-furlong track record. His resulting 2011 crop of 33 foals included 13 runners, five winners, one black-type winner, four black-type horses, made him the leading freshman sire in California last year, and ranked him number nine nationally. 
Besides the three sons of Smart Strike with runners mentioned above, Coolmore’s Lookin At Lucky will have his first 2-year-olds in 2014. Lookin At Lucky, a $475,000 Keeneland two-year-old purchase trained by Bob Baffert was really good, but in a couple of key races, he wasn’t so lucky. His only defeat in six starts at two (including three Grade I wins) came in the 2009 GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita, when he drew the 13 hole and was beaten a head by Vale of York (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}). He still, deservedly, won the Eclipse Award as Champion 2-year-old male. In the 2010 GI Kentucky Derby, in which he was sent off the tepid 6-1 favorite, he had the opposite problem. He drew the one-hole and was literally almost put into the fence when the field shifted left coming out of the 10-furlong chute on to the main track. I thought he ran an amazing race to recover and finish sixth to Super Saver (Maria’s Mon) that day. He came back to win his next three – the GI Preakness S., GI Haskell Invitational S., and GII Indiana Derby – before running a respectable fourth, drawn 12 of 12 and wide the whole way, behind Blame (Arch) and Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}) in the 2010 GI Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. He was named Champion 3-year-old male in 2010. According to the Jockey Club’s online fact book, he had 107 foals in his first crop, 2-year-olds this year, so obviously, in the best Coolmore tradition, he’s getting a real shot. Considering all of this evidence, it is a reasonable bet that Smart Strike will be held in much higher regard as a sire of sires by the end of 2014.