Bill Oppenheim: Weekend Results
The last weekend in March proved very informative, with major racing taking place in Dubai, at Gulfstream Park and at Fair Grounds. I think there were 19 group and graded races among the three racetracks. You could argue that the most significant result, especially if you look at the TDN YTD General Sire List (click here), was that Darley’s Dubawi, as Andrew detailed in his column yesterday, sired a Group 1 winner and a Group 2 winner, both on the dirt. The 8-year-old Prince Bishop, winner of the $10-million G1 Dubai World Cup over American invaders California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) and Lea (First Samurai), is from Dubawi’s first crop; while the ultra-impressive G2 UAE Derby winner Mubtaahij is from his sixth, and most recent, crop of 3-year-olds. The $7.2 million credited to Dubawi for those two dirt wins rockets him to the top of the Sire List, now with 2015 earnings already over $10.1 million, over $6 million clear of two other European sires, both unfortunately deceased: Sinsgpiel, sire of G1 Dubai Turf winner Solow; and Azamour, sire of G1 Sheema Classic winner Dolniya. Mubtaahij’s eight-length demolition of the UAE Derby field punched his ticket to the GI Kentucky Derby, since the UAE Derby is the only race outside North America which earns points for the Kentucky Derby via what I still consider a badly flawed points system–though that’s a subject for another day.
So now the top North American sire on the combined TDN YTD General Sire List ranks fourth, but it is not Gainesway’s Tapit who rules that particular roost this week, it is Lane’s End’s Candy Ride (click here). He had three graded stakes horses last weekend, including the 5-year-old gelding Chocolate Ride, who won the GII Mervin Muniz H. at Fair Grounds; and Sloane Avenue, a 4-year-old colt who narrowly missed in the G2 Godolphin Mile; as well as Candy Boy, a 4-year-old colt who ran fourth in the G1 Dubai World Cup. Candy Ride now has the earners of over $3.67 million this year, with Tapit at $3.44 million (including 18 black-type horses already this year, 12 of them graded). Please note that four of the top five on the North American list right now are F2006 (eighth crop now 2-year-olds) sires: after Candy Ride and Tapit, Darley’s Medaglia d’Oro ranks third in North America ($2.98-million). Fourth is California’s Harris Farms’ Lucky Pulpit ($2.46-million), sire of California Chrome, and not an 8th-crop sire; and fifth is WinStar’s Speightstown ($2.35-million). That was some sire crop, as you hear me saying almost every week now.
The canny breeder’s reaction to this fact, not surprisingly, goes something like, “okay, that’s interesting, now what is the next great sire crop?” Of course we don’t know that yet, but we can say that the crop of sires with first 3-year-olds in 2015 (F2012 sires, first foals 2012) is showing considerable promise. Ashford’s Munnings, by Speightstown, regained the top spot among second-crop sires (click here) from barnmate Lookin At Lucky by virtue of his filly I’m A Chatterbox winning her third straight stakes in New Orleans in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks. Spendthrift’s Line Of David is narrowly third among second-crop sires, with Taylor Made’s Eskendereya fourth, and the deceased Summer Bird, by Birdstone, fifth, following the win by his filly Birdatthewire in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks.
Derby Contenders…
All will become clearer after the major GI Kentucky Derby preps this weekend: the GI Wood Memorial at Aqueduct; the GI Blue Grass S. at Keeneland; and the GI Santa Anita Derby; as well as the GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 11, featuringAmerican Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile), who is actually the tepid 5-1 favorite for the Derby. Monday’s TDN (click here) displayed the results of the final Kentucky Derby future pool. Ten horses, including G2 UAE Derby winnerMubtaahij, were quoted below 20-1 (as was ‘Other’). Though Mubtaahij literally could not have been more impressive, opinion is still divided on the merit of the trouncing he delivered to his opponents. The Racing Post rated Mubtaahij’s performance RPR (Racing Post Rating) 118, equal with Saturday’s GI Florida Derby winner Materiality (Afleet Alex). Four 3-year-olds share third billing, each with RPRs 116: this Saturday’s GI Santa Anita Derby favorite Dortmund (Big Brown) ; American Pharoah; last Saturday’s GI Florida Derby second Upstart (by Flatter, who also sired the third); and GI Blue Grass S. favorite Carpe Diem (Giant’s Causeway). Firing Line (Line of David), twice runner-up to Dortmund, then winner of the rich GIII Sunland Park Derby by better than 14 lengths, registered an RPR 114.
Comparing these with Beyer numbers is interesting, if not decisively illuminating. Materiality has run the top Beyer number (110), in the Florida Derby, in which Upstart ran a 108. Dortmund and Firing Line have run Beyer 104; American Pharoah 100 when he won the GII Rebel S. Carpe Diem won the GIII Tampa Bay Derby, with 98. Andy Beyer estimates Mubtaahij’s ‘fig’ was only around 95. It is worth pointing out, though, that whichever scale you use, 3-year-olds’ numbers do tend to improve almost by the month, so a horse which ran a 104 at the beginning of March could well improve by the beginning of April. So these figures are very much not set in stone, it is definitely a developing picture.
Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at bopp@erb.com (please cc TDN management at suefinley@thoroughbreddailynews.com). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.