With Baffert in Charge, a Triple Crown is Actually Possible

By Bill Finley

The Triple Crown grind, an overwhelming, virtually insurmountable force, now threatens to chew up and spit out another one. There doesn’t appear to be a 3-year-old horse on the planet that can outrun American Pharoah. But it’s not other horses that stand in his way of a Triple Crown sweep, it is the immense difficulty of running three top efforts in the span of five weeks. 

If American Pharoah runs as well as he did in the Preakness he will win the Belmont S. and may just win it by double digit lengths. But will he? With the modern horse, when it comes to the final leg of the Triple Crown, that’s always the most important question. Really, the only question. 

Thirteen straight Kentucky Derby-Preakness winners have failed to win the Belmont, and the odds of that happening are so astronomical that it’s beginning to look like winning the Triple Crown is not difficult, it is impossible. 

I gave up long ago on ever seeing it happen again, but my faith has been renewed in 2015. American Pharoah is a superior horse. He has speed, stamina, class and talent. He is, in a word, brilliant. But as good as American Pharoah is he’s not the one I’m putting my trust in. It is his trainer. 

Bob Baffert is the only trainer in the sport that can pull this off, which may seem like an odd statement considering that he alone accounts for three of the 13 Triple Crown failures since Affirmed in 1978. But you have to look beyond the raw numbers when it comes to Baffert. His horses may not always win the Belmont, but they almost always show up and run their race. It hasn’t necessarily been the “grind” that has gotten them beat. 

That may not have been the case in 1996 when Cavonnier, the first of five horses Baffert has started in all three legs of the Triple Crown, was pulled up in the final leg with a bowed tendon. 

Since then, Baffert has shown that he has the unique ability to get a horse through Kentucky Derby prep season, the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and then the Belmont in one piece. 

Consider: 
In 1997, Silver Charm turned in a terrific effort in the Belmont. He was second, losing by just three quarters of a length and was beaten by a very good horse in Touch Gold. 

In 1998, Real Quiet lost the Belmont and the Triple Crown by a mere nose. Of the 13 horses who have strung together this Belmont S. losing streak, he was arguably the least talented of any of them. Yet, he came to closest to winning the Triple Crown as Baffert kept him at a peak level throughout the series. 

In 2001, Point Given won the Belmont for Baffert after racing in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. A terrible trip cost him any chance of winning the Kentucky Derby and then he won the Preakness by 2 1/4 lengths. Not only did he not wear down from the rigors of the Triple Crown he ran the best race of his life in the Belmont. He won by 12 1/4 lengths. 
In 2002, War Emblem lost all chance when stumbling at the start. The horse, and Baffert, were never given a chance to show what they can do. 

Baffert is still a 21st century trainer. You’re not going to see his horses run 22 times a year and he, like everyone else, likes to space his horse’s races out. He runs everything on Lasix. But he’s also got enough “old school” in him that he won’t baby a horse. Between Feb. 27 and Apr. 26, American Pharoah had four bullet works, two at six furlongs and one at seven. By contrast, Todd Pletcher’s Materiality has never worked beyond five furlongs in his career and his main preparation for the Kentucky Derby included a series of soft half-mile works, with one five-furlong work tossed in. 

Different trainers, different styles. Both are extremely successful. But what sets Baffert apart from virtually everyone else in his profession is that he finds a way to keep his horses going, no matter what is thrown at him. 

That also holds true after the Triple Crown. The list of horses that were never the same again or never amounted to anything after the Triple Crown is an endless one, but there are few Baffert-trainees on there. Real Quiet, Point Given, Silver Charm and War Emblem all won Grade I races after the Belmont. And five of Baffert’s seven Haskell winners took part in one Triple Crown race or another. 

(It was announced after the Belmont that Cavonnier had been retired, but he returned to the races, nonetheless, after a layoff of 2 1/2 years. He won the Ack Ack S. at Santa Anita in his first start back but his post-Belmont career lasted just even races and was largely unsuccessful). 

There are a lot of reasons the Triple Crown is lucky to have Baffert. In a dead-heat with Wayne Lukas, no one is a better representative of the sport in terms of how they handle the media, their accessibility and their professionalism. But Triple Crown losing trainers are quickly forgotten by the general public. They made a movie about Secretariat. There’ll never be one about Real Quiet or Big Brown. 

So the biggest gift Baffert can give the sport is a Triple Crown winner. The drought has gone on painfully, agonizingly long. Someone needs to put an end to it and do so this year. Baffert can.