Chalk or Bomb in the Foster?

Saturday's GI Stephen Foster H. under the lights at Churchill Downs counts Horses of the Year, Eclipse Award, Breeders' Cup, Dubai World Cup and American Classic winners among its heroes over the last two decades, including Awesome Again, Victory Gallop, Street Cry (Ire), Saint Liam, Curlin, Blame and Fort Larned. But on a handful of occasions, that exclusive fraternity has been raided by horses who, on paper, appeared completely hopeless, yet Colonial Colony ($127.60), Seek Gold ($185.40) and Pool Play ($72.60) have managed to light up the tote. 

With just seven runners signed on Saturday evening, an upset of that magnitude is probably mathematically impossible, not to mention that the cream figures to rise to the top of this year's Foster crop. Favored at 7-5 on the morning line is Lea(First Samurai), owner of two 110-plus Beyer Speed Figures from his last five starts. The homebred, who won the 2014 GI Donn H. (Beyer 114), missed the rest of the season, but returned with a vengeance and a 106 Beyer when landing the GIII Hal's Hope S. over Gulfstream's one-turn mile Jan. 10. The narrow runner-up to horse for the course Constitution (Tapit) in defense of the Donn Feb. 7, he most recently finished third behind Prince Bishop (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) and Horse of the Year California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) when last seen in the World Cup Mar. 28. While Street Cry and Curlin landed the Foster following a win in the desert, not every horse copes with the travel the same and it will remain to see what type of fitness level he brings to the table here. Claiborne and Adele Dilschneider campaigned 2010 Foster hero and future Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame (Arch).

Commissioner (A.P. Indy) will look to give WinStar Farm its first win in the biggest race of the meeting not called the Oaks or the Derby. The 2014 GI Belmont S. runner-up was sixth in the Donn, but has landed his two most recent appearances over 9 1/2 furlongs–the GIII Skip Away S. Mar. 28 and the GIII Pimlico Special May 15. The pace of the Foster projects fairly quick, and if Commissioner wants to race prominently, he'll have to deal with that fact over a trip that may be slightly short of his best. 

Hoppertunity (Any Given Saturday) looks to add victory in the spring's top handicap race to his success over older rivals in the GI Clark H. last November, a race in which the sophomore set filled the top three places. The half-brother to connections' MGISW Executiveprivilege (First Samurai) tacked on a smooth success in the GII San Pasqual S. Jan. 10, but was no match for the likes of Shared Belief (Candy Ride {Arg}) and California Chrome when beaten eight lengths in the GII San Antonio S. Feb. 7. 

The winner of the Foster gets an all-expenses-paid trip to this year's GI Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland Oct. 31.