Bill Oppenheim: September Sires

There are 249 sires represented by 4,164 yearlings catalogued at Keeneland September, an average of 16.7 per sire. However, 102 sires have fewer than four yearlings catalogued, including 68 sires with just one each. The 147 sires with four or more catalogued average 27 yearlings each and constitute 96% of the catalogue. So those are the names you'll see most. In fact, no fewer than 66 sires have 30 or more yearlings catalogued; they are the sires of 73% of the catalogue, a total of 3,038 yearlings, or an average of 46 per sire.

Young sires attract the numbers; four of the six sires with 60 or more catalogued in the sale are first-crop yearling sires. WinStar's GI Arkansas Derby winner and GI Kentucky Derby and GI Preakness runner-up Bodemeister (Empire Maker) has 83 yearlings catalogued, the highest by any sire. Proven sire Harlan's Holiday, who also stood at WinStar in 2013 before he died later that year in Argentina, has 82 catalogued from his final crop of yearlings; and Spendthrift's veteran Malibu Moon ranks third by number catalogued throughout the sale, with 71. The three have 85 among them in Book 1, and 151 thereafter, so you'll see plenty by these three sires throughout the sale.

WinStar and Lane's End between them stand all four of the first-year sires with 60+ catalogued. WinStar stands Bodemeister and 2012 GI Wood Memorial winner Gemologist (Tiznow), who has 60 catalogued– one in Book 1, and 59 in the 'back books' (Books 2-6). Lane's End stands The Factor (65), a dual seven-furlong Grade I winner from War Front's first crop, and Union Rags (63), winner of the 2011 GI Champagne S. and the 2012 GI Belmont S.; he is by Dixie Union, who has a freshman sire son at Florida's Northwest Stud who is making some noise, Gone Astray. Bodemeister has averaged $242,333 at the sales so far this year, just ahead of The Factor ($238,256); Union Rags is number three so far among first-crop yearling sire, with a $177,454 average (per Instatistics).

A total of 47 first-year sires have 826 yearlings catalogued–that's 20% of the total–including 14 stallions with 30+ catalogued. Gainesway's To Honor And Serve (Bernardini) has 55, and Tapizar (Tapit) has 46; Darby Dan's Shackleford (Forestry) has 53; and Hansen (Tapit) also has 46 catalogued from his season at Ashford before he was sold to stand in South Korea–about which we learned considerably more than we knew before, thanks to Lucas Marquardt's terrific on-the-scene coverage from Seoul last week.

Nine 'freshman' sires with their first 2-year-olds racing, and their second crop of yearlings coming to market, have 30+ yearlings catalogued; in total, 38 F2013 (first foals 2013) sires have a total of 551 yearlings (13% of the catalogue) in the sale. Tops by

representation is Castleton Lyons's two-time Eclipse Turf champion Gio Ponti, by Tale of the Cat, with 53 catalogued. Spendthrift's GI Secretariat S. winner and GI Kentucky Derby third Paddy O'Prado, by El Prado (sire also of Medaglia d'Oro and Kitten's Joy), has 48 in the sale; they don't figure to be particularly early, but he has five winners and is showing some of the right signs at this early stage. Ashford's champion 2-year-old Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) is North America's leading freshman sire by progeny earnings at this point, with seven winners and two Graded Black-Type Winners; he has 46 yearlings catalogued–about half the number he had in this sale last year. The leading North American freshman sire by number of winners is actually Darley's Lonhro, who has been champion sire in Australia, with nine. There are 30 yearlings catalogued from his second North American crop, and you would definitely be encouraged by the results of his first so far to be buying in the second.

Of the F2012 sires with their first 3-year-olds racing in 2015 and their third crop of yearlings selling, just 24 are represented throughout the catalogue, with a total of 397 yearlings (9.5% of the total). Compare that to 47 F2014 sires with 20% of the yearlings and 38 F2013 sires with 13% of the yearlings and you can see the market gets less and less forgiving as sires have runners. Interesting, though: for the whole sale, 17% of the yearlings (724/4164) are in Book 1. By first-crop yearling sires (F2014), 11% of their yearlings are in Book 1. Only 2% of the yearlings by the 38 sires with their first 2-year-olds (F2013) are in Book 1; that is only 13 yearlings, and seven of those are by Uncle Mo. For sires with their first 3-year-olds (F2012), the percentage is in Book 1 is back up to 8%. The Book 1 emphasis is still squarely on proven sires.

Lane's End's Quality Road, last year's leading North American freshman sire, leads F2012 sires with 55 catalogued. Claiborne's Blame and Spendthrift's Warrior's Reward have 47 each. WinStar's Super Saver, who had his second Grade I winner of the month in the ultra-impressive Runhappy (Beyer 111) in last Saturday's GI King's Bishop on a power-packed Saratoga card, now has three Grade I winners and two Grade II winners in his first crop and must be just about the hottest sire in America right now; he has 41 catalogued–one in Book 1 and 40 in the back books, so make plans to stay if you want to buy a Super Saver.

Besides the six sires with 60+ catalogued, 12 others have 50-59 in the sale. Gio Ponti and Quality Road are two of those, as well as two other first-crop yearling sires, Gainesway's To Honor And Serve (55, of which 52 are in the back books), a two-time Grade I winner by Bernardini, and Darby Dan's GI Preakness and GI Met Mile winner Shackleford (53), by Forestry. Also with 50+ catalogued: Spendthrift's Into Mischief (58); WinStar's Speightstown and Tiznow (57 each), and Distorted Humor (53); Ramsey Farm's Kitten's Joy and Gainesway's Tapit, 55 each; and Lane's End's duo of Candy Ride and Lemon Drop Kid (53 each). Claiborne's Arch and Pin Oak's Broken Vow have 49 each; and besides Paddy O'Prado, three other stallions each have 48 catalogued: Ashford's Giant's Causeway and Darley's Medaglia d'Oro and Hard Spun. You see the pattern: most of the top North American sires and sire prospects will have plenty for buyers to look at over the 12 days, kicking off on Monday, Sept. 14.