They Only Have Eyes for Her

by Mark Cramer from Paris

For Sunday’s Arc Trial day at Longchamp, the Paris-Turf racing paper, referring to Treve (Fr) (Motivator {GB}), winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in 2013 and 2014, noted that the “public will only have eyes for her”.

On a cloudy afternoon in which five different races had Group 1 winners in their fields, all eyes were indeed on Treve. Could she win the Arc for an unprecedented third time three weeks later?

The day began with a “hymn” on the big screen, dedicated to Treve:

Throughout the Longchamp racing emporium, banners announcing the Treve website:

http://www.followtreve.com/en/

It was an ambiance of coronation.

But the 5-year-old Treve still had to prove herself in the Group I Prix Vermeille for fillies and mares, facing, among others, Arabian Queen (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}), the only filly to have defeated the otherwise unbeaten John Gosden colt Golden Horn (GB) (Cape Cross {Ire}). Golden Horn then came back to to win Saturday’s G1 Irish Champion S. against a high-quality field, flattering Arabian Queen.

The Prix Vermeille, for fillies and mares, had never been won by a 5-year-old. The Christiane Head-Maarek stable made no secret that they were treating the Vermeille as an “objective” and not just an Arc trial.

Treve not only won the Vermeille, she did so unleashing her fierce turn of foot and demolishing the field.

Before the race I asked Bernard, a professional handicapper, if he’d be willing to take the low odds on Treve in the Arc.

“I’ll wait for the post-position draw,” he said. But following her impressive victory, he changed his tune.

“I’m beginning to think I’d take her at even money.”

My plan was to survey the “betting public”, asking if they would accept the low odds on Treve, currently between even money and 4-5 with the British bookies.

Following the Vermeille, I could not find a single person who would reject the low odds.

“I’ll take her at 1-5,” said one camera-toting Treve fan.

True rapture had set in.

I decided to ask the professional players if they were equally possessed. What about those Gosden horses, and what about Mr. Arc himself Andre Fabre, with his Flintshire (GB) (Dansili {GB})–second to Treve last year–and his current 3-year-old star New Bay (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}), the dominating winner of the G2 Prix Niel prep, 30 minutes before Treve’s show of force, and previously the winner of this year’s French Derby?

“I wouldn’t be mesmerized by this year’s winners over 3-year-olds,” said John, a seasoned race observer. “This year’s threes are not at the same level as last year’s crop. Not only will Treve now face a lower level of competition, but she’s even stronger than when she went into the Arc last year. The only thing that would change my mind is an injury.”

Normally the Prix Vermeille is run faster than the other two Arc trials, the Prix Niel for 3-year-olds and the Prix Foy, another Group 2 for 4-year-olds and up, all at the same 2400-meter Arc distance.

But this year, Prix Foy winner Postponed (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) ran a second faster than Treve, and two seconds faster than Fabre’s New Bay in the Prix Niel. New Bay will get a 3 1/2-kilo weight advantage over Treve in the Arc.

I eventually found one public handicapper who called for reason rather than rapture.

“Fabre has had Arc winners coming from the Prix Niel and he cannot be discounted so swiftly. New Bay looked impressive!”

The day began with the first 1,000 fans entering Longchamp receiving a free €2 bet. It reached a peak when Treve’s elated rider Thierry Jarnet took a tour around the winner’s circle ring, shaking the hands of each and every fan within reach while signing autographs.

For the moment, racing fans can’t take their eyes off of Treve. The fear is that Treve-mania may cause defections from the Arc field the first Sunday in October?