Tactics Look Key for Frosted in PA Derby

A mile and a quarter in an otherwise paceless race over a track like Saratoga is one thing, but given the apparent abundance of early speed signed on for Saturday’s $1-million GII Pennsylvania Derby, it will be interesting to see what decisions are made by the human connections of Frosted (Tapit), the 5-2 morning-line selection.

Off the pace when scoring by two lengths in the GI TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial and when a running-on fourth to American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) in the GI Kentucky Derby, the homebred gray was–almost out of necessity–ridden closer to the front when runner-up in the Triple Crown finale at Belmont Park June 6 and in the GII Jim Dandy S. at Saratoga Aug. 1. While many assumed that Dandy winner Texas Red (Afleet Alex) would do the chasing of American Pharoah in the GI Travers S. Aug. 29, it was–somewhat surprisingly–Frosted who hounded the Zayat runner along on an above-average pace and weakened late to finish third. While he could race prominently again with Joel Rosario jumping back aboard, Frosted may be better served by taking back a touch and trying to pick up the pieces late.

Madefromlucky (Lookin at Lucky) will likely lay further back than Frosted and will try to outfinish that one, though he is likely in need of a career-best effort to figure in the outcome Saturday afternoon. Winner of three of six starts since an interest in the colt was purchased by Everett Dobson’s Cheyenne Stables earlier this year, Madefromlucky took out Belmont’s GII Peter Pan S. by a length May 9, but was one of a handful of horses from the Todd Pletcher barn who did not run their race on the weekend and trudged home a distant sixth in the GI Belmont S. June 6. The chestnut sat a mid-pack trip last time out in the GII West Virginia Derby and came away late for a 1 1/2-length success, with War Story (Northern Afleet) along late for third, 3/4 of a length ahead of Iron Fist (Tapit). The latter looked to be making a winning move along the inside under Mike Smith at Mountaineer, but flattened out late to be defeated under three lengths.

The other Pletcher representative is the interestingly bred Tommy Macho (Macho Uno), who upset subsequent GII Indiana Derby hero Tiz Shea D (Tiznow) in a Belmont S. day allowance before finishing a decent third behind ‘TDN Rising Star’ Speighster (Speightstown) and Texas Red in the GIII Dwyer S. July 4. The bay was simply a no-show when seventh last time at Mountaineer and it is interesting at a minimum that Javier Castellano lands here and not on the better-fancied Madefromlucky. Tommy Macho’s Sept. 5 workout looks to have been accomplished in the company of that stablemate.

Upstart (Flatter) made his third start since essentially being eased in the GI Kentucky Derby and fits on his very best. A perfect-trip third behind American Pharoah in the GI William Hill Haskell Invitational S. Aug. 2, he was also free of excuses when fourth, beaten 5 1/2 lengths in the Travers. He is another who may be best dropping back and trying to make one late run.

Iron horse Mr. Z (Malibu Moon), making his 10th start of the year, has almost no choice but to be ridden for pace from his wide draw and he probably possesses the inherent speed to come across his rivals and lead early. Even with the scratch of Gimme da Lute (Midnight Lute), Mr. Z does not figure to have his own way up front, as Island Town (Hard Spun) should not be far away. Tenacious on the engine–albeit on a modest pace–in the GIII Matt Winn S. at Churchill June 13, he never found the front in the Indiana Derby July 18 and finished an even fifth. It was back to a positive ride from Brian Hernandez Jr. in this track’s GIII Smarty Jones S. Aug. 29 and the chestnut kicked away from West Virginia Derby runner-up Souper Colossal (War Front) to score by 6 3/4 lengths.