James Willoughby: Soft Can Suit Americans
Updated: October 29, 2015 at 2:47 pm
The prospect of a soft Keeneland turf course this weekend is thought by many U.S. experts to hand an advantage to European-trained runners at the Breeders’ Cup. The thinking is that the raiders are more accustomed to such conditions through their exploits back home.
But is this really the case? And, should we ever apply general rules to racehorses when specific evidence is available? Let’s see what the history of the Breeders’ Cup offers from first perspective, then consider the likely impact on key runners on a case-by-case basis.
It’s fair to say that three renewals of the Breeders’ Cup have taken place on a soft surface, as verified by the times of the Mile and Turf events ever-present since the 1984 inception (the softer the ground, the greater the time taken to complete the course). Shown in bold in Table 1–and by significant peaks on the two parallel line graphs–these were 1995 at Belmont, 2007 at Monmouth and 1988 at Churchill. Table 1 also contains in light type the renewals that can be counted as good ground and seen as minor perturbations to lines on the graph.
Belmont 1995 (officially soft):
The Turf went to ex-French Northern Spur (Ire) (Sadler’s Wells {Ire}) with fellow sons of the great stallion finishing third (Carnegie) and fourth (Tamure); European-trained horses finished second to fourth. Ridgewood Pearl (GB) (Indian Ridge {Ire}), a top-class Irish mare with form on heavy ground, won the Mile by two lengths, with seven lengths back to third; few really handled conditions behind.
Monmouth 2007 (officially soft):
Kip Deville (Kipling), who had never raced outside North America, beat the Aidan O’Brien-trained Excellent Art (GB) (Pivotal {GB}) and another U.S.-trained runner, Cosmonaut (Lemon Drop Kid). The winner had one piece of soft-ground form, but had put up his best performances on a firm surface. English Channel (Smart Strike) won the Turf, another victory for America. The Todd Pletcher-trained horse had some form on a yielding turf track and clearly relished conditions.
Churchill 1988 (officially good):
The track was patently slower than given following recent rain, and French-trained super filly Miesque (Nureyev) relished it on the way to her second Mile. Steinlen (Habitat), who went one better the following year at Gulfstream, was trained by Wayne Lukas and highly effective on firm. The first four were miles clear of a bunch of horses who arguably struggled with conditions. The Turf went to U.S.-trained Great Communicator (Key To The Kingdom), a real warhorse effective on a firm surface but with a markedly round action.
While this sample doesn’t constitute proof or otherwise of any particular conjecture, it at least provides a reminder that plenty of U.S.-trained grass runners have a latent capacity to act on a softer surface than normally encountered. Along the same lines, there are lots of European runners who may not want it soft.
This year’s GI Turf favorite Golden Horn (GB) (Cape Cross {Ire}) is a perfect illustration of the fallacy. His best form is on firm, and conditions most commonly encountered in the U.S. would have suited him better than those that are likely to prevail. It was on the soft side when he won the G1 Irish Champion S. at Leopardstown in September, but also when he suffered his only defeat in the G1 Juddmonte International at York before that. Trainer John Gosden is adamant that his charge wants to bounce off a fast surface, so track conditions are a worry.
O’Brien’s 3-year-old filly Found (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) is by a sire who was a brilliant mover himself and often passes the same trait to his stock. This filly may be an exception, however. Second to Golden Horn in the Irish Champion, she also ran second on a soft surface in the G1 Qipco Champion S. at Ascot most recently.
Yielding conditions are no problem for the GI Arlington Million one-two The Pizza Man (English Channel) and Big Blue Kitten (Kitten’s Joy). It’s an interesting angle that the former is by the aforementioned Monmouth winner on soft. Both will require the top two to underperform, it is true, but it has happened before.
The six European-trained runners in the Mile have contrasting ground preferences. An easy surface is ideal for Make Believe (GB) (Makfi {GB}), Esoterique (Ire) (Danehill Dancer {Ire}) and Impassable (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}); certainly tolerable for Mondialiste (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) and last year’s winner Karakontie (Jpn) (Bernstein); but isn’t helpful for Time Test (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}), who has a ton of speed and was highly impressive on a firm surface at Royal Ascot this year.
But, Tepin (Bernstein) gained a big win over this strip on soft turf last out when highly impressive in the GI First Lady S. and, given the performance is some way ahead of her other figures, she rates as a good example of a U.S.-trained runner with mud-running tendencies rarely given the opportunity to shine. Her Beyer Speed Figure of 108 for that romp is notable.
Table 2 provides an executive summary of Breeders’ Cup runners on Saturday with notable performances on a soft turf surface. Conditions on the dirt track are more in flux than on the grass, these surfaces designed to dry out quickly. If the track is sloppy, horses with speed to clear the kickback hold an advantage, as do those habituated to a wet track or with a particular type of action. None of these attributes are held by O’Brien’s Classic hope Gleneagles (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}).
Race Horse RPR Beyer Notes
Turf Sprint Undrafted 116 – Fourth to Tropics in 2014 G1 July Cup
Turf Sprint Mongolian Saturday – 98 Won allowance race (5.5f in 1:05.68)
F&M Turf Bawina 113 – Neck second in GI Prix Jean Romanet
F&M Turf Legatissimo 116 – Won G1 Matron S. in clear-cut style
F&M Turf Miss France 115 – Second in GI Prix Rothschild in 2014
F&M Turf Secret Gesture 112 98 First past post in GI Beverly D. S.
F&M Turf Stephanie’s Kitten 110 100 Decisive winner of GI Flower Bowl
F&M Turf Watsdachances 109 95 Awarded GI Beverly D. S.
Mile Grand Arch 114 103 Winner of GI Keeneland Turf Mile
Mile Make Believe 117 – Three-length winner in G1 Poulains
Mile Mondialiste 117 104 Won GI Woodbine Mile
Mile Impassable 111+ – Won G2 Prix de Sandringham
Mile Tourist 113 102 Close third in GI Keeneland Turf Mile
Mile Tepin 116 108 Easy winner of GI First Lady
Mile Obviously 115 100 Close third in GI Woodbine Mile
Mile Esoterique 120 – Beat Territories in G1 Jacques le Marois
Mile Karakontie 116 – Won G1 Poulains at Longchamp in 2014
Turf Golden Horn 124 – Won G1 Irish Champion at Leopardstown
Turf Shining Copper 113 101 Close third in GI Arlington Million
Turf Big Blue Kitten 114 103 Lost ground, beaten neck in GI Arlington Million
Turf Found 119 – Second in G1 Champion S. at Ascot
Turf The Pizza Man 115 103 Won GI Arlington Million gamely
Turf Ordak Dan 112 – Won G1 Gran Premio 25 de Mayo in 2013