TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato will make $50 Win/Place bets on each Kentucky Derby prep and Triple Crown race. The handicapper with the highest bankroll after the Belmont Stakes wins. Scratches will result in the post time favorite.
Last Week – Finally starting to gain some momentum here, but am I too late? Exaggerator turned in one of the more impressive performances of the entire prep season with an eye-catching win at 3-1 in a sloppy renewal of the Santa Anita Derby. Was it the off track or did Desormeaux just time his move better? Either way, it was a top-shelf effort… My Man Sam launched from way out of it to finish a strong second at 9-2 in the Blue Grass. Backing such a deep closer in the Derby is always a concern, but I think I'm going to have a very hard time staying away from him, especially at a good price, on the First Saturday of May… Flexibility never ran a step at 6-1 in the Wood–really kicking myself for not just playing it safe with Outwork there. Total: $1017.50.
GIII Coolmore Lexington – Granted he's been out since a runner-up finish in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, his fourth straight chasing champion Nyquist home, but Swipe (Birdstone) is the clear-cut horse to beat here. There appears to be plenty of speed to keep the pace honest and he's tactical enough to find himself in a good spot in midpack. The only concern? Even with a win here, he may find himself on the outside looking in for the Derby. The conservative return spot does make plenty of sense though considering he's coming off having an ankle chip removed and only returned to the worktab in late February. Selection: #4 Swipe (9-5).
GI Arkansas Derby – Cupid is a very deserving favorite and has been super impressive in his last two, including a game Rebel score. He figures to face more pace pressure this time around though, and by much better horses, too. Creator (Tapit) continues to thrive with racing experience and is really starting to come into his own at Oaklawn this meeting. He couldn't have looked any better in his overdue come-from-behind maiden win in Hot Springs, and followed with a very strong rallying third from far back in the Rebel. With the potential for a hotter pace, another leap forward can launch Creator right into the winner's circle at a price here. Selection: #3 Creator (10-1).
Last Week – 4-1 shot Brody's Cause led home a 1-2-3 finish for the logical closers in the Blue Grass, bouncing back from a non-effort in the Tampa Bay Derby and putting in a run that was very similar to his winning move in the Breeders' Futurity at two… I mentioned how I was torn between Outwork and Matt King Coal in the Wood, and I ended up choosing wrong. Outwork survived the hot early pace, while the latter–who was actually setting the splits–faded to fourth. It feels like the winner's getting more criticism than he deserves for a slow final time considering how hard he worked early, but he might still be up against it from a dynamics perspective in the Derby… Danzing Candy acted up before the Santa Anita Derby, set impossible splits and checked in fourth–he'll need to figure out how to relax if he's to have any shot at Churchill. Total: $1437.50.
GIII Coolmore Lexington S. – This came up an interesting little race with lots of ways to go. Big Squeeze (Lemon Drop Kid) probably would've won his debut sprinting at Turfway if not for being put in tight along the rail, and then ran into a Friday's Bachelor S. winner Counterforce (Smart Strike) when beaten 3/4 of a length at Oaklawn Mar. 5 in a race that produced four next-out winners. Big Squeeze was one of those winners–he chased a rival through solid-enough splits, collared that foe turning for home and kicked away to score convincingly at a flat mile back in Hot Springs Mar. 26. He seemed to appreciate the added ground, and considering his dam was a stakes winner at this trip and graded winner at nine panels, he figures to excel with any added real estate. Selection: #6 Big Squeeze (10-1).
GI Arkansas Derby – Call me a chalk lover (no pun intended), but I just think Cupid (Tapit) is too good for these horses. I was absolutely sure Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect) was going to go right on by the grey last time in the GII Rebel S., but Cupid shut the door on him in a way you don't normally see from a horse who did all the dirty work early. The horses closest to him in the early stages were way back at the wire, which made the Baffert trainee's performance all the more impressive. Selection: #10 Cupid (2-1).
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