Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires .com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets–highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DeRosa: Last Week –Â Needed an 11-20 shot to do it, but El Areeb finally got me on the board and looked good doing it in the Withers. Odds-on favorites giveth, and odds-on favorites taketh away. Classic Empire was a bad third at 2-5 in the Holy Bull, but hopefully he has a good excuse. Bob Lewis: thankful to score some points in this dreadful race with runner-up Irap. $1,000 “wagered”, -51% ROI. Bankroll: $490.
GIII Sam F. Davis S. – The Sam F. Davis was supposed to be my coming out party about how clever I could be. Sure I picked heavy chalk last week, but I was holding a trump card. I knew McCraken was waiting as a bet against this week. Unfortunately, now it just looks like I'm “reaching” after going down in flames at 2-5 last week, but I'm going to stick with the plan even if Classic Empire didn't.
Yes, McCraken can win this race, but my feeling on him is he's a better Kentucky Derby prospect than he is a Sam F. Davis threat as the favorite. He'll start the race from the outside and he'll start his run from far back, and neither of those things are ideal going 1 1/16 miles at Tampa Bay Downs. Fact Finding is the play off his field-best 101 Brisnet Speed Rating as well as being the only horse with a triple digit late pace rating while also being able to run a 90+ early pace rating. He's ideally drawn to sit behind the pace and get first run on main threats No Dozing and McCraken. Selection: #3 Fact Finding (9-2).
DiDonato: Last Week – Irish War Cry broke out in a big way in the Holy Bull. Do I still get to take credit if I said he wanted to come from off the pace and he ended up going gate to wire? The scratch of Fact Finding kind of changed the complexion, in fairness… Royal Mo also got the job done on the front end in a riveting renewal of the Bob Lewis… J Boys Echo ran an ok third in the Withers. Can't win them all, but more importantly, just glad to guarantee that I won't be losing them all. Come and catch me, guys. Bankroll: $1160.
GIII Sam F. Davis S. – McCraken is really good–he definitely deserves to be towards the top of Derby lists at this point and I'm a big fan. But he certainly doesn't need to win Saturday and, coming from someone who decided to play Tampa seriously this meet, it's pretty tough to predict how a horse might perform on that main track unless you've got a tide chart, ouija board and tomorrow's TDN handy. No Dozing has the benefit of works over the strip for a trainer in Arnaud Delacour who does very well here. He was impressive in his first two outings, and endured a very wide trip when fourth behind Classic Empire in the GI Breeders' Futurity in October. Wide again when second to 'TDN Rising Star' Mo Town in the GII Remsen last time, he earned a Thoro-Graph number for that race that is significantly faster than anything the expected favorite has run so far. Selection: #9 No Dozing (4-1).
Sherack: Last Week – Couldn't have been more disappointed with my Withers pick Fillet of Sole, who I was very high on and never fired at 10-1, but nice to get on the board with the very well-supported Royal Mo in the Bob Lewis. After the late scratch of Fact Finding, decided to play it safe and take Classic Empire in the Holy Bull. That, apparently, did not work out too well for me. Bankroll: $590.
GIII Sam F. Davis S. – McCraken certainly seemed like the real deal last season and I was also very impressed with the races that No Dozing ran in defeat in his last two. While I'll be keeping a close eye on those two going forward this spring, I'll stick with my Holy Bull pick from last weekend here, the unbeaten Fact Finding, who should enjoy a nice tactical advantage over that aforementioned pair while negotiating two turns for the first time. Pletcher continues to send out nothing but live 3-year-olds this winter in Florida and he has done very well in the Derby preps at Tampa in recent years, including a 2016 Sam F. Davis-Tampa Bay Derby double with Destin. Selection #3 Fact Finding (9-2).
Not a subscriber? Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts.
