Andrew Caulfield on Dortmund

SANTA ANITA DERBY-GI, $1,000,000, SAX, 4-4, 3yo, 1 1/8m, 1:48 3/5, ft. 
1–DORTMUND, 122, c, 3, by Big Brown 
     1st Dam: Our Josephina (SW & GSP, $190,584), by Tale of the Cat 
     2nd Dam: Ropa Usada, by Danzig 
     3rd Dam: Lakeville Miss, by Rainy Lake 
($85,000 RNA wnlg '12 KEENOV; $90,000 yrl '13 
FTKJUL; $140,000 2yo '14 FTMMAY). O-Kaleem 
Shah Inc; B-Emilie Gerlinde Fojan (KY); T-Bob Baffert; 
J-Martin Garcia. $600,000. Lifetime Record: 6-6-0-0, 
$1,289,400. Werk Nick Rating: A+. Click for the 
eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. 
Click for the brisnet.com chart, the brisnet.com PPs or the free brisnet.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton. 
 
There are, of course, many different routes to the GI Kentucky Derby, but which of the numerous trials have proved the most reliable pointers to Derby success over the last 20 years? Well, if you are a fan of Afleet Alex's son Materiality, you will be reassured to know that the GI Florida Derby has been the most dependable, with Thunder Gulch, Monarchos, Barbaro, Big Brown and Orb all going on to success at Churchill Downs. 

But which of the Easter weekend's three Grade I contests has proved the most useful stepping stone? Carpe Diem took the GI Toyota Blue Grass S., a race which hasn't been won by a future Kentucky Derby winner since Strike the Gold in 1991. However, the classy son of Giant's Causeway had previously taken the GII Tampa Bay Derby, a race won in 2007 by future Derby hero Street Sense. 

The GI Wood Memorial saw Frosted follow in the footsteps of his illustrious sire Tapit, but you have to go back to 2000 to find a Kentucky Derby winner–International Star's sire Fusaichi Pegasus–on the Wood Memorial's roll of honor. 
Then there was the GI Santa Anita Derby, which saw Dortmund extend his unbeaten sequence to six. Like the Blue Grass, the Santa Anita Derby may have briefly lost some of its relevance as a Kentucky Derby trial by being contested on a synthetic surface for a number of years. However, since Santa Anita's return to dirt it has been won by I'll Have Another in 2012 and California Chrome last year, which surely adds extra strength to Dortmund's already powerful claims. 

One would also have thought that it is in Dortmund's favour that he is a son of a Kentucky Derby winner, namely Big Brown, who was winning for the fourth time in as many starts when he took the 2008 Derby. Unfortunately–as I pointed out in my notes on International Star after his victory in the GII Risen Star S.–recent history shows that colts with a Kentucky Derby-winning father do not enjoy an advantage on Derby day. Unbridled was the last Kentucky Derby winner to sire a Kentucky Derby winner, thanks to Grindstone in 1996, and you then have to go back to 1984 to find another example–Seattle Slew's short-lived son Swale. Perhaps the time is ripe for another father-and-son success, as the two colts with the most points are both by Derby winners. 

The most striking aspect of Dortmund's pedigree is that he is inbred 3×3 to Northern Dancer's wonderful son Danzig, who built the exceptional record of siring 18% black type winners for an Average Earnings Index of 3.93. Altogether Dortmund is inbred 4x4x5x4 to Northern Dancer, with the third line in the fourth generation coming via another brilliant stallion, Nureyev. The career statistics for Nureyev stood at 17% black-type winners and an AEI of 3.49, so this concentration on Northern Dancer is potentially highly potent. 

Top-notch winners with 3×3 inbreeding to Danzig are still rare but there has already been a Kentucky Derby winner inbred 4×4 to this legendary Claiborne stallion, namely I'll Have Another. Danzig himself failed to sire a Kentucky Derby winner, even though his sensational first crop contained Stephan's Odyssey and Chief's Crown, second and third behind Spend a Buck in 1985. Danzig did, though, sire Polish Navy, the stallion responsible for the 1993 winner Sea Hero, and he also sired winners of the GI Preakness S. and the GI Belmont S., so his Triple Crown credentials were excellent. 
I have to admit that I found it difficult not to visit the sins of Big Brown's trainer upon this son of Boundary. I guess I am not alone in this, as Big Brown's connections were obliged to cut his fee nearly every year, to the extent that it went from $65,000 in 2009 to $10,000 in 2014. Then came the news that Andrew Cohen and Gary Tolchin had acquired a majority interest and were moving 2008's champion 3-year-old colt to Dutchess Views Farm in New York, to stand the 2015 season at $8,500. Of course it isn't too late for the picture to change, as Big Brown has a sizeable team of 2-year-olds following in Dortmund's slipstream this year. 

Let's not forget, either, that Big Brown suffered only one defeat in an eight-race career which took in all three legs of the Triple Crown, or that his accumulative winning margin in his first five starts stood at an awe-inspiring 39 lengths. So far his efforts as a stallion haven't been so breathtaking. The bare facts are that Dortmund is the first American graded stakes winner to emerge from Big Brown's first three crops, though he has also been represented by the smart Irish sprinter-miler Darwin, the Japanese Derby third Apollo Sonic and the Brazilian Group 3 winner Big Wildcat. There may well soon be another graded winner from Big Brown's third crop, as his daughter Puca was runner-up to Condo Commando in Saturday's GII Gazelle S. 

Dortmund was conceived when Big Brown's fee stood at $40,000, so it is to be expected that there is no shortage of class in the bottom half of the colt's pedigree. 

His dam Our Josephina completed the exacta for Tale of the Cat when she chased home My Trusty Cat in the GIII Chicago Breeders' Cup H. over seven furlongs. She was also a stakes winner over six furlongs. For the record, another good winner out of a Tale of the Cat mare is the GI CCA Oaks winner It's Tricky (by Mineshaft), but most of the graded winners with dams by Tale of the Cat have shown more speed than stamina. 

I suppose a record such as Our Josephina's has to raise a doubt or two about Dortmund's ability to shine over an extra furlong at Churchill Downs. Fortunately, he settles well now that he has plenty of experience and he showed no signs of stopping at the end of the Santa Anita Derby. 

Dortmund's second dam Ropa Usada was a half-sister to Mogambo, a high-class performer who stayed pretty well for a son of Mr. Prospector. Mogambo's best effort at two came over a mile, when he took the GI Champagne S., and as a 3-year-old he stayed well enough to finish second to Broad Brush in the Wood Memorial, to Snow Chief in the GII Jersey Derby over a mile and a quarter and to take third place behind Snow Chief in the Florida Derby. 

Dortmund's third dam Lakeville Miss was no doubt the source of Mogambo's stamina. She won the CCA Oaks over a mile and a half, despite having been precocious enough to take the title of champion 2-year-old filly. She owed that award to a record of five wins from eight juvenile starts, including Grade I victories in the Matron, Selima and Frizette S. She was clearly not lacking in toughness–a quality Dortmund seems to have inherited in abundance. 

Having Blue Prince as her broodmare sire must have helped Lakeville Miss on the stamina front, as this son of Princequillo had contested the Derby and St Leger in England as a 3-year-old and later finished second over two and a half miles in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot. 

It is going to be fascinating to see which of the Baffert pair–Dortmund or American Pharoah–proves the stronger on the first Saturday in May. At the moment, I would probably side with Dortmund, but there are further trials to be run for what promises to be a highly competitive renewal.