BetAmerica Derby Prep Showdown: UAE Derby, Louisiana Derby & Florida Derby

Steve Sherack & Brian DiDonato will make $100 win/place bets on 20 Kentucky Derby preps. The handicapper with the highest total at the end wins.

(For the BetAmerica sign-up bonus, click here).

SS: GIII Sunland Derby Result -While clearly no match for Firing Line, Where’s the Moon proved best of the rest to finish a clear-cut second at odds of 11-1. Didn’t get much on the place price ($4.40), but can’t complain cutting Brian’s lead to $60. 

G2 UAE Derby – Japanese invader Golden Barows was visually impressive enough in his latest come-from-behind win over 15 rivals in the Hyacinth S. at Tokyo to take a stab at a mild upset here. Gotta love seeing a Florida 2-year-old in training sale graduate produced by a six-time New York-bred stakes-winning mare competing overseas. Son of Tapit can make some serious noise if he handles the increase in trip. Selection: #7 Golden Barows (4-1).

GII Louisiana Derby – I’ve been high enough on Stanford since his debut win at Monmouth last summer that I have to stick with him here. Wasn’t initially thrilled by his runner-up effort (was DQ’d and placed sixth for interference) behind Materiality in the Islamorada H. at GP, but that performance did produce the highest last out Beyer in this field and he may have gotten a little lost on the front end while making his first trip around two turns. Can’t be too pleased about the rail draw here, but it looks like there will be plenty of others likely to do the heavy lifting this time around. Nice bullet work in the interim and he figures to enjoy first run on the Risen Star top three. Selection: #1 Stanford (5-1). 

GI Florida Derby – Materiality could just be a freak, but running that fast and returning on short notice second off a layoff has to be somewhat of a concern. Despite what the morning-line says, I think Upstart may actually go off at a fairly similar number as that one thanks to that big Beyer in the Islamorada and his connections. The NY-bred clearly didn’t fire his best shot in the FOY after running a hole in the wind in the Holy Bull, but he did what really good horses still do in those cases–win. Well, if not for a horrible call from the stewards. But in any case, I’m banking on Upstart rebounding with a big performance here. Selection: #9 Upstart (8-5). 

Wagered: $2,400. Current Total: $2,550.

BD: GIII Sunland Derby Result – Was hoping Why Two would be able to sit off the pace a bit, but obviously it wouldn’t have mattered as heavy favorite Firing Line turned it into a runaway. Nice pick by Steve with runner-up Where’s the Moon to narrow the gap here. These next few weeks of major preps should make for an interesting stretch run. 
G2 UAE Derby – Remember when American horses were dominant in the dirt races on this card? With Meydan returning to a conventional surface, there’s every chance that that trend will reemerge. My Johnny Be Good turned in a few solid performances Stateside, and he’ll be saddled by a conditioner in Eoin Harty who knows how to win in Dubai–Harty won the 2009 World Cup with Well Armed. The Casner homebred completely stopped last time in the GII Tampa Bay Derby, but the pace he pressed was hot and he must be doing well enough for them to ship. Selection: #8 My Johnny Be Good (15-1). 

GII Louisiana Derby – Well, I tried to resist again, but I possess very little willpower. I’ve previously voiced concerns before about Keen Ice being a trap horse, but there’s just so much pace signed on here and he seems like the runner with the highest likelihood to appreciate nine furlongs. Will he win the race or just the gallop-out? We’ll see. Selection: #7 Keen Ice (5-1). 

GI Florida Derby – This really seems like a two-horse race between Materiality and Upstart, and I’ve got to side with the former, who will be a better price and still has more upside. A debut winner sprinting in the slop in January, the well-bred $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic buy overcame trouble caused by his stablemate Stanford to run away with this venue’s Islamorada H. earlier this month. He earned a very strong 104 Beyer Speed Figure, and may very well have more still to offer. Selection: #7 Materiality (7-2). 

Wagered: $2,400. Current Total: $2,610.