Bill Oppeneim–Top Yearling Sires

The major yearling sales season ended this week with another 1,272 yearlings sold in the October Yearling Sales at Fasig Kentucky (837) and Arqana (435), both sales averaging, as you can see from the accompanying Weekly Sales Ticker, “in the thirties” ($35,850 at Fasig; €36,427 at Arqana). We’ll have complete tallies for the sale season with our column next Wednesday, but the general trend was up in the 10% range after roughly 30% gains last year. 

This then gives us the opportunity to look at the more or less final tables for the leading North American and European sires of yearlings. As has been the case since the end of October Book 1 a couple of weeks ago, eight of the 12 NA/EU sires which now have 2014 yearling averages over $300,000 (click here) according to Instatistics, stand in Europe. Overall #3, Gainesway’s Tapit ($611,125), #4, Claiborne’s War Front ($591,353), and Darley’s #11 and #12, Medaglia d’Oro ($337,500, with a very impressive 30 sold of 31 offered) and Bernardini ($337,400) form the Kentucky contingent. 
Of the eight which stood in Europe, two–#5 Montjeu ($511,720) and #6 Monsun ($503,431), each with eight sold–died in 2012, and these are their final crops of yearlings. Darley’s English-based Dubawi, with 13 sold from only 15 offered, cracked the million-dollar barrier with an impressive average of $1,006,253, no doubt reflecting scarcity value to some extent. Coolmore’s Galileo registered an average of $759,521, which is nearly as impressive considering he had 39 sell–three times as many as Dubawi. Darley also stands Shamardal (at Kildangan, in Ireland), who checked in 10th ($389,253), which means Darley stands four of the top 12 NA/EU sires by 2014 yearling average. 

Tapit, War Front, Montjeu (who of course stood at Coolmore), and Monsun (Germany) rank third through sixth on average. At #7 is Gilltown’s Sea The Stars ($430,138), Galileo’s half-brother and the youngest sire (by three crops) among the top 12. The Banstead Manor duo of Juddmonte sires, #8 Dansili ($413,808) and #9 Oasis Dream ($408,144) come next, followed by the other three Darley sires (Shamardal, Medaglia d’Oro, and Bernardini) to round out the top 12. 

It’s always important, interesting, and usually significant, to summarize the new commercial sires as well. We can say a few things about the top ten on this list (click here). The Dubawi 2014 sales clean sweep was completed by his first really ‘commercial’ son, Poet’s Voice, another Darley sire (Dalham Hall), who was one of three first-year sires which sold considerably above market expectations. With a figure now of 54 sold for an average of $161,941, Poet’s Voice was over $35,000 in front of a near three-way tie for second among leading North American F2013 sire, Claiborne’s Trappe Shot ($125,968), and the Irish-based pair of Ballylinch’s Dream Ahead ($121,559) and Coolmore’s Pour Moi ($120,691). 
Coolmore, in fact, stands five of the top ten NA/EU sires with first yearlings. Ashford’s Uncle Mo ($111,958 with 96 sold–that might be a record) was the fifth F2013 sire with a six-figure average, and their team also stands Zoffany ($82,526) and Canford Cliffs ($82,250) in Ireland, and Cape Blanco ($78,794) in Kentucky–well, Cape Blanco is now going to Japan for 2015, but he’s been at Ashford up until now. Castleton Lyons’ Gio Ponti ($95,864) and Spendthrift’s Tizway ($83,481), both Kentucky sires, completed the top 10 first-year sires. 

Poet’s Voice, Trappe Shot, and Zoffany are the three sires which exceeded what would be the consensus of market expectations. This means, unquestionably, they were throwing individuals the judges liked. There has never been the level of market manipulation the conspiracy theorists like to intimate, and certainly these days the number sold by each sire is way too high for the data to be interpreted in any other way: the judges particularly liked the yearlings by these sires. It was a reliable pointer for Super Saver–currently the leading North American freshman sire–last year, so of course it will be interesting to follow the fortunes of these three, plus what was already looking like a good sire crop, with the likes of Uncle Mo, Gio Ponti, Dream Ahead, Pour Moi, and Canford Cliffs already having positive market profiles. 

NEXT COLUMN: Next Wednesday (for a change), Oct. 29, including previews of sires with their first foals, and first mares in foal, catalogued to the Kentucky mixed sales. 

Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at bopp@erb.com (please cc TDN management at suefinley@thoroughbreddailynews.com). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.