Come September

By Bill Oppenheim
    After a 30% recovery in the market began at Keeneland September last year, the Thoroughbred auction marketplace is up 16% in gross from the corresponding point in 2013, though the average is up just 2.5% as 13% more horses have sold. So far so good. Now comes September–well, after Doncaster, OBS, Washington, Baden-Baden, and Ontario–but everybody is warming up for the main event. Keeneland September goes back to 13 days this year (adding one day), with a total of 4,181 yearlings catalogued, a 7% increase over last year. The first four days (‘Week 1’) averaged $280,925 last year on receipts of $153-million (546 sold of 875 catalogued, 62.4%), while the rest of the sale (eight days) saw receipts jump from just under $87-million in 2012 to $127-million last year, as a remarkable 72.5% of those catalogued were listed as sold. This year the number catalogued in Book 1 is actually down by 13% (762 this year, down from 875), while the number catalogued in Books 2-6 is up 13%, which is 386 horses. 
    Last year the 875 yearlings catalogued in Book 1 were by 76 different sires. This year there are 74 sires represented in the first week, so an average of a little over 10 per stallion. Nine proven sires each have 29 or more catalogued in Book 1, headed by North America’s #1 sire of 2014, Gainesway’s Tapit, who has 47 yearlings catalogued in the first week. Taylor Made’s deceased Unbridled’s Song has 42 catalogued in Book 1, while Ashford’s Giant’s Causeway has 41. Also with 29+ catalogued are: Lane’s End’s Smart Strike (38); Ramsey Farm’s Kitten’s Joy (34); Spendthrift’s Malibu Moon and WinStar’s Distorted Humor (33 each); Lane’s End’s Candy Ride (Arg) (30); and Darley Jonaell’s Bernardini(29). Interestingly–and I’m not sure why–two other of Darley’s six-figure sires, Medaglia D’Oro (24) and Street Cry (Ire) (16) are not as heavily represented as might have been expected. 
    Fourteen sires total are represented by 20 or more yearlings in Book 1, and none of them had their first foals born later than 2008. These 14 sires account for 448 yearlings in Book 1, 59% of the total; and they average 32 yearlings per sire. So it’s essentially a catalogue for proven sires–very well proven sires. Only three sires with their first yearling selling this year have more than five catalogued in the first week: Coolmore Ashford’s Uncle Mo (19) and Cape Blanco (10) and Castleton Lyons’ Gio Ponti (11). Claiborne’s Blame (16), Taylor Made’s Eskendereya (11) and Lane’s End’s Quality Road (6) are the only sires with first 2-year-olds with five or more catalogued in Book 1. WinStar’s Pioneerof The Nile(8) is the only sire with first 3-year-olds with 5+ in Book 1. No sires with first 4-year-olds have 5+ catalogued (Lane’s End’s Curlin has four), while of the F2009 sires with first 5-year-olds this year, Darley’s Street Sense (17) and Hard Spun (12) have 5+ in the first week, along with Ashford’s Scat Daddy (11). 
    The composition of sire power will look quite a bit different when we get into the second week. For the entire sale there are 246 sires represented, of which no fewer than 23 sires have 50 or more yearlings catalogued each, throughout the whole sale (eight of those have four or fewer catalogued in Book 1, so are real ‘second-week’ sires). Perhaps not entirely surprisingly, the top three sires for the whole sale by number catalogued all stand at Ashford: first-crop yearling sires Uncle Mo (94 total, 19+75) and Cape Blanco (71 total, 10+61); and Scat Daddy (75 total, 11+64). Nine of the 23 sires with 50+ total are sires with first foals 3-year-olds and under. But more of that next week, when we’ll have a list of all 246 sires with more detail.