HKIR Betting Cheat Sheet

by Lucas Marquardt

I should start by saying that you should not read past this line and, instead, refer to fellow TDN-er and Hong Kong ace Alan Carasso’s picks–they’re likely to be more astute than mine–for Sunday’s Hong Kong International Races. 
Ah, that’s the spirit. We’ll do our best to bounce back from our G1 Japan Cup loss two Sunday’s ago. I actually wasn’t totally off that day–my top picks Just a Way (Jpn) and Gentildonna (Jpn) went 2-4 and my longshot mention Spielberg (Jpn) was third, but I didn’t even mention the winner Epiphaneia (Jpn) in my blog. 
Anyway, here’s a race-by-race breakdown of who I’m backing in Sunday’s four HKIR events. I should mention the weather looks like it’s going to be perfect–67 degrees and cloudless, so firm footing is expected. 

G1 HONG KONG VASE, 2400mT 
Either this race is very simple–it’s Flintshire (GB) (Dansili {GB})–or it’s incredibly complex and open for a huge bomb. You can’t fault Flintshire much, not off his runner-up tries in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Breeders’ Cup Turf and I think you have to use him. I’ll venture out, however, and key Khaya (NZ) (Librettist), William Hill’s longest shot at 40-1. Maybe I’m just grasping here, but if someone’s able to get loose on the lead through easy splits, I think it’s this son of Librettist. He hasn’t run farther than 1800 meters in his last seven, but he showed 2400 was within his grasp with a decent third to Bubble Chic (Fr) (Chichicastenango {Fr}) in the Queen Mother Memorial in May. He’s coming off a runner-up try in the 1600-meter Chevalier Cup Nov. 30, and at the price he’ll be, it’s worth seeing if trainer John Size’s faith in this horse will be rewarded. Willie Cazals (Ire) (Aussie Rules) has been a bit of a talking horse this week. I like him. He sits way back, then comes motoring in a grey blur. Came close to picking him on top, but worried he just won’t have enough pace to close into. Red Cadeaux (GB) (Cadeux Genereux {GB}) won this two years ago, and his recent second (again) in the G1 Melbourne Cup showed he still has some run in those old 8-year-old legs. 

The Play: $10 exacta keybox, Khaya with Flintshire, Red Cadeaux and Willie Cazals (10 w/ 1, 5, 8). Cost – $60. 

G1 HONG KONG SPRINT, 1200mT 
Betting the troubled trip angle is often a sucker’s play, but Aerovelocity (NZ) (Pins {Aus}) really did suffer terrible luck in his prep for this, the G2 Jockey Club Sprint. He was commencing a spirited rally up the rail when the tiring pacesetter, having drifted off the pine, came back in and shut him off. He took a few strides to regain his momentum, and pilot Zac Purton tried to send him on through again. Same result–squeezed back sharply–and he came home last of 14. In his previous start, the Premier Bowl Oct. 26, Aerovelocity overcame some self-made trouble. Having hopped badly at the start, he found himself last of 10, but rallied (again on the rail) and got up in time. I’m not sure how much raw speed is signed on for this, so his pressing style should fit the bill, too. That also goes for Smart Volatility (Aus) (Danewin {Aus}), who had to wait for a gap to appear in the Jockey Club. Once it did, however, he picked it up nicely and went on to finish second over the likes of G1 Hong Kong Mile entrant Able Friend (Aus) (Shamardal). He’s 5-for-12 at Sha Tin, and it’s a mistake to overlook this horse. The gaps just never came for Sole Power (GB) (Kyllachy {GB}) in the 
G1 Prix de l’Abbaye last time, and I’m worried about traffic here, too. Lucky Nine (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) won this in 2011. As opposed to Aerovelocity, feel he will be overbet off his own troubled fifth in the Jockey Club. Still, a horse with talent. 

The Play: $10 exacta keybox, Aerovelocity with Smart Volatility, Sole Power and Lucky Nine (9 w/ 1,3,10). Cost – $60. 

G1 HONG KONG MILE, 1600mT 
Trainer John Moore’s confidence in Able Friend (Aus) (Shamardal) is contagious. At the barrier draw on Thursday, Moore said to expect improvement from Able Friend’s clear-cut win in the G2 Jockey Club Mile last out Nov. 23 facing about half this field. That has to inspire a healthy dose of fear in opposing trainers. I’m not going to get cutesy and will try for value under. The two-time Hong Kong Horse of the Year Ambitious Dragon (NZ) (Pins {Aus}) returned from an 18-month injury to be a close-up third to Military Attack (Ire) in the Sha Tin Trophy Oct. 26, then, after being hampered a touch in the stretch in the Jockey Club Mile, ran on well to be third again. I expect further improvement here with the addition of jockey Ryan Moore. Using Able Friend on top, I’ll key Ambitious Dragon in the second and third slots using five other horses: Gold-Fun (Ire) (Le Vie dei Colori {GB}), Glorious Days (Aus) (Hussonet), Grand Prix Boss (Jpn)(Sakura Bakushin O {Jpn}), Fiero (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) and Trade Storm (GB) (Trade Fair {GB}), the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile third. 

The Play: $10 trifecta, 1 w/ 5 w/ 2,3,4,6,8 + 1 w/ 2,3,4,6,8 w/ 5 Cost – $100 

G1 HONG KONG CUP, 2000mT 
This may be the toughest betting race on the card–there are six, maybe seven horses you can make a serious case for. Maybe it’s that Corine Barande-Barbe’s charm has just completely won me over–and it has–but I’m for the veteran Cirrus des Aigles (Fr) (Even Top {Ire}). His two-length dismissal of Flintshire (GB) in the G1 Coronation Cup in June has taken on further luster, as, for that matter, has his wins over Treve (Fr) (Motivator {GB}) in the G1 Prix Ganay and Anodin (Ire) (Anabaa) in the G1 Prix d’Isphahan. Farraaj (Ire) (Dubai Destination) is something of a question mark for me, but he looks like a talented quick-ground horse. He toted 137 pounds when defeating a small army of horses in the John Smith’s Cup at York in July, and came back two starts later to be a strong third in the G1 Mackinnon S. at Flemington Nov. 1. Reigning Hong Kong Horse of the Year Designs On Rome (Ire) (Holy Roman Emperor {Ire}), rounding back into form after a brilliant spring campaign, gets the nod as part of a very deep local bench. That’s in part due to the presence of the terrific young rider Joao Moreira, who will find a way to make some noise Sunday. Endowing (Ire) (Danehill Dancer {Ire}) showed good energy when third in the G2 Jockey Club Cup Nov. 23 and, in his third off the bench, is my upset pick. 

The Play: $10 exacta keybox Cirrus des Aigles (Fr) with Designs on Rome, Endowing and Farraaj (1 w/ 2, 7, 8). Cost – $60. 
Good luck.