James Willoughby: Guineas Trial Wash-Up

It is clear from history on both sides of the Atlantic that conditioning is a much bigger factor in U.S. Classics than in European ones. 

Seven of the last 10 winners of the G1 2000 Guineas at Newmarket–sponsored this year by Qipco and run on May 2–have skipped the trial races completely, while Aidan O’Brien, the modern master of winning the race, has unleashed six victors from Ballydoyle all without a race that year. 

Even if the points system for GI Kentucky Derby qualification facilitated it, can you imagine Bob Baffert or Todd Pletcher using the same strategy? When the Michael Matz-trained Barbaro won the race in 2006, his five-week layoff was the longest for a winner in 50 years. 

This year, my money is on O’Brien making it seven-off-the-bench with Gleneagles (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), the ante-post favourite and clearly the most athletically gifted horse in the 2000 Guineas line-up. 

This contrasting aspect of the 2000 Guineas and Kentucky Derby is a function of the different surfaces on which they are run. For various reasons, dirt races are attritional and usually run in what athletes call “positive splits”–the first half of the race timing faster than the second. Turf races demand much more late explosion, even on galloping tracks like the Rowley Mile at Newmarket. 

The realization among European trainers is that some horses have more explosion first time off a layoff than second. Only last year, for example, the John Gosden-trained Kingman (GB) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) annexed the G3 Greenham S. at Newbury by five lengths, only to be turned over by his subdued foe Night Of Thunder (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) at Newmarket. 

Now, a prep race clearly helped Night Of Thunder, who parlayed an unremarkable run into a Classic win, but controlling the effort level of a big-race aspirant is not an exact science. The best move for some is to hedge against the possibility of wasting a Group 1-level effort by skipping a prep race altogether. 

So it is that the legacy of the latest Greenham S. at Newbury must be viewed with interest. On an unseasonably warm afternoon, nine colts not quite ready for prime time served up something usually reserved for the Utah Salt Flats. 
Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum’s Muhaarar (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}) stopped the clock in a dazzling 1:20.80 for the straight seven furlongs from a standing start, a new track record (video). Had it been athletics, the time would not have counted for the history books because the wind was measured at 19 mph directly behind during the race. Still, the times of the other races over the same course strongly suggested this was something for the ages, the winner pushed to his absolute best in a stirring dual with the same owner’s Estidhkaar and prevailing by a neck with the field well strung out behind. 

Muhaarar is more likely to take in his Guineas race in France, but Estidkaar is now on target for Newmarket. Though he comes from the Richard Hannon stable, which has won the 2000 Guineas three times using good performances in trials (the license holder for the latest success was Richard Jr), a larger probability than usual has to be assigned to the Greenham causing recoil. Hannon also saddled the third, Ivawood (Ire) (Zebedee {GB}), who might be a better proposition to peak May 2. 

Looking on from his box at Ballydoyle is the likely winner, however. Gleneagles, disqualified after passing the post in front in the G1 Jean Luc-Lagardere on the Arc undercard last October (video), will take the trusted O’Brien route to Newmarket and employ all the fast-twitch energy stored up since last year in a Classic, rather than a Classic trial. 
The day after the colts’ race, the G1 Qipco 1000 Guineas also sees a hot favorite trained by O’Brien. Found (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) looks head-and-shoulders better than her rivals, which include Group 1-winning stablemate Together Forever (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}). The daughter of Galileo and Group 1 winner Red Evie (Ire) (Intikhab) showed superb acceleration to win the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac (video) on the same day as the disqualification of Gleneagles, and I don’t believe any filly in the line-up can cope with a burst like that–assuming the favorite is on song. 

And that latter caveat must be considered after it was reported that Found was a little behind in her Guineas preparation earlier in the spring. She had spiked a temperature, according to her trainer, meaning that she had to do less strenuous exercise than that originally timetabled for her. 

Every year, the rate of progress O’Brien horses can make between starts on the track seems an echo for the sudden bulletins of dazzling workouts off it. The great trainer can bemuse early in the season with horses who perform as if miles short of their best, only for the same animal to appear transformed next time it is seen out. 

This year’s example might be the deposed G1 Epsom Derby favorite, John F Kennedy (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}). He could hardly have run worse earlier this month when a dull last of three in a Group 3 at Leopardstown; this might have signalled the end of Classic aspirations for any other trainer’s horse. Not necessarily with this mercurial genius, however. Even those close to O’Brien at Ballydoyle/Coolmore admit that they don’t always figure his strategy, only that they observe that it tends to work. 

Like the trials for the 2000 Guineas, the fillies’ Classic trials have not yielded that much of interest in Britain. At Newmarket, Estidkaar’s stablemate Osaila (Ire) (Danehill Dancer {Ire}) had to battle hard to prevail in the G3 Nell Gwyn S. (video), which is usually a suspect trial in any case, while the Group 3 race registered as the Fred Darling at Newbury saw Redstart (GB) (Cockney Rebel {Ire}) beat Jellicle Ball (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) in a time 1.33 seconds slower than the colts in the Greenham (video). That, of course, was no disgrace this year, and it is the Gosden-trained runner-up who appears the filly most likely to make improvement. The daughter of Timeform World Champion Kingman’s sire, Invincible Spirit, is best kept on the right side.