Key Race

By Bill Oppenheim
   Last week we previewed North American and European sires who went to stud in 2011, had their first foals in 2012, their first yearlings in 2013, and have their first 2-year-olds this year. In the context of evaluating stallion prospects, horses go to stud with their achievements fresh in breeders’ minds. Breeders are evaluating the horses’ race records, pedigrees, conformation, the farm at which they’re standing, stud fee, etc. Then, the following autumn they make their debuts in the marketplace, as their first mares in foal come up at auction. Cue Frankel (GB) (Galileo {Ire}), whose 14 mares in foal in the 2013-14 Mixed Sale season (which has just finished, with Goffs last week, though in Frankel’s case they were all sold in 2013) averaged $1,497,869, according to TDN’s Instatistics. I think we can call that ‘nearly $1.5-million’. In most cases, though not Frankel’s, the prices of the first mares in foal to a stallion tell us more about the class of mare bred to the stallion than they tell us about the stallion himself. 
    It’s at the following year’s mixed sales, when a stallion’s first weanlings are offered at auction, that we begin to get commercial data about the sire himself. Then the next year his first yearlings sell (those are really the ones we reviewed last week) and then the next spring (coming up now) the first 2-year-olds are in training and then the real evidence starts to accumulate, the racetrack evidence. Up until then we’re mainly guessing, but any evidence we can glean from the auction marketplace is important to help breeders make decisions about which stallions they choose to bet on, by breeding a mare to them. 
    This week we want to take a look at two groups of North American and European stallions for which there is some, though limited, commercial data: those with their first foals in 2013 (F2013), which have had their first weanlings/short yearlings just finish selling at the mixed sales; and those now having their first foals in (F2014), which have been having mares in foal selling. 
    The last stallions to retire to stud in North America for more than $35,000 were Curlin ($75,000) and Big Brown ($65,000) in 2009 (first foals 2010). Ashford’s Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie), devastating winner of the 2010 GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Beyer 108 tied for the highest ever for the race) went to stud for $35,000 in 2012 and 26 foals from his first crop have averaged $109,808 at the sales so far (click here for Instatistics) to lead all NA/EU F2013 sires by foal/short yearling average. In hot pursuit is Castleton Lyons’s Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat), a winner of seven Grade I races, two-time Champion Turf Male in North America, and runner-up to both Zenyatta (in the 2009 GI Breeders’ Cup Classic) and Goldikova (in the 2010 GI Breeders’ Cup Mile) in top Breeders’ Cup races. There have been 18 sold so far from Gio Ponti’s first crop and he’s a close runner-up to Uncle Mo with an average of $102,167. 
European stallions occupy the next four places: Poet’s Voice (GB), like Makfi from the first crop of the all-conquering Dubawi, nosed out Rip Van Winkle to win the 2010 G1 Queen Elizabeth S. He stands at Dalham Hall and topped European F2013 sires with 25 foals from his first crop averaging the equivalent of $89,052. He is just ahead of Coolmore’s 2011 G1 Epsom Derby winner Pour Moi (Ire) (Montjeu {Ire}), whose 15 foals of 2013 sold have averaged $86,155. Another Coolmore stallion, the Hannon-trained five-time Group 1-winning miler Canford Cliffs (Ire) (Tagula {Ire}), has had 30 foals/short yearlings average $78,707. This puts him just ahead of Ballylinch’s Dream Ahead (Diktat {GB}), another five-time Group 1 winner, but sprinting. He’s had 32 foals average $77,469. 
    Historically, one good pointer to future sire success is to identify sires which have 15 or more weanlings sell for an average of $60,000 or more by this stage of proceedings and whose median is around five times their original stud fee. This is especially indicative if they have a high ratio of median to average, which broadly indicates a certain uniformity in conformation. Three North American F2013 sires have hit that target or come very close, although it must be added that the overall ratio of median to stud fee was much higher than normal for F2013 sires. Highest of the three on average was Gio Ponti, who had 18 sold, for an average, as mentioned, of $102,167, and a median of $100,000, which was five times his original $20,000 stud fee and 98% of his average. WinStar’s Sidney’s Candy, from Candy Ride’s second crop, was the winner of the 2010 GI Santa Anita Derby and four Grade II races. He had 21 weanlings/short yearlings sell, for an average of $74,476 and a median of $72,000, which is 4.8 times his original $15,000 fee and 97% of his average. The third sire was a six-furlong Grade II winner at four who stands at Claiborne. Are you thinking War Front? Nope. It’s Trappe Shot(Tapit), who had 31 foals sell for an average of $66,097 and a median of $65,000 (98% of his average), which is 6.5 times his original $10,000 stud fee. 
    Six stallions (click here for Instatistics) with 10 or more mares sold in foal had covering averages over $100,000 at the 2013-2014 mixed sales, with Juddmonte’s unbeaten Frankel the runaway leader. American sires filled the second and third places, with WinStar’s Bodemeister (Empire Maker), winner of the 2012 GI Arkansas Derby and second to I’ll Have Another (Flower Alley) in both the GI Kentucky Derby and GI Preakness, filling the second spot, with 20 mares in foal averaging $236,500. The third is Lane’s End’s 2011 GI Champagne S. and 2012 GI Belmont S. winner Union Rags, who is by Dixie Union out of a Gone West mare, but his second dam is Terpsichorist, by Nijinsky, and I thought, when I saw him anyway, that Union Rags looks much more like a Nijinsky than a Dixie Union or a Gone West. In any event, 10 mares in foal to him averaged a healthy $202,500. 
    Two more European stallions with form against Frankel came next: Newsells Park’s Nathaniel (Ire), like Frankel by Galileo, won the 12-furlong G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. as a 3-year-old in 2011 and the 10-furlong G1 Eclipse S. at four. He was twice beaten by Frankel in a one-mile maiden race which was the first start for both at two and he finished third to him in the final start for both, the 10-furlong G1 British Champion S. at four. There have been 15 mares sold in foal to Nathaniel for an average of $188,657. Coolmore’s Excelebration (Ire) (Exceed and Excel {Aus}) was by contrast a miler, which meant he ran more often against Frankel. Excelebration was beaten five times by Frankel (four seconds, one third), but when he got clear of him he was a triple Group 1 winner, including an impressive win in the 2012 G1 Queen Elizabeth S. at Ascot in which Excelebration looked like Frankel against the rest of the opposition that day. There have been 14 mares sold in foal to Excelebration for an average of $144,574. 
    Another Lane’s End stallion who averaged over $100,000 for his first in-foal mares and this is the dual California seven-furlong Grade I winner The Factor, from War Front’s first crop and out of a Miswaki mare (which worked for Galileo and Dalakhani). A total of 20 mares in foal to The Factor, of 21 offered, sold for an average of $110,300. This seems a very strong showing for a $15,000 sire. I thought Trappe Shot was the F2013 sire whose commercial performance rather thrust him from the background to the foreground and I thought the same about The Factor among F2014 sires. In other words, the market ‘likes’ them. 
    In the course of looking at all this I made an interesting discovery: both Trappe Shot and The Factor had run in the 2011 GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Churchill Downs. Trappe Shot had actually run second to Lookin At Lucky at nine furlongs in the 2010 GI Haskell Invitational S., but his only graded win came in the GII True North S. at Belmont going six furlongs as a 4-year-old. He finished fourth in the 2011 Dirt Mile, in what was his final career start. The Factor set the pace and tired to finish eighth of nine, but he rebounded in his next start to go wire-to-wire and win the GI Malibu S. at Santa Anita. 
    So I took a closer look at the 2011 Dirt Mile, in which I remember Shackleford (Forestry) taking over and leading by 2 1/2 lengths early in the stretch before he was mowed down by Caleb’s Posse (Posse). Caleb’s Posse drew off to win by four lengths with Shackleford safely holding second. But here’s what I thought was amazing, and what makes the 2011 GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile a ‘key race’ not, as usual, for the handicappers trying to cash a bet, but in this case for breeders. Seven of the nine runners in that race are now at stud at major Kentucky farms and either had their first foals in 2013 or are due to in 2014. Not all of them ran their race that day, but they sure did all end up in the same race. (Clickhere to view the chart from this race) 
    In finishing order, they were: Caleb’s Posse, who stands at Three Chimneys ($10,000 in 2013, $5,000 in 2014) and won the seven-furlong GI King’s Bishop S. and the Dirt Mile at three. He also finished third behind Wilburn and Shackleford in the GII Indiana Derby around two turns in the final race before the Dirt Mile for all three. He finished in front of Shackleford in the GI Carter at four, beaten a nose by Jackson Bend, then was beaten a nose by Shackleford in the GI Met Mile. First foals in 2014. 
    Shackleford stands at Darby Dan ($20,000) and ran 20 times between ages two amd four, winning three Grade I’s, including the GI Preakness (over Animal Kingdom) at three and the GI Met Mile at four. First foals this year. 
Trappe Shot finished fourth in the Dirt Mile (3rd was a gelding, Tres Borrachos). As discussed above, he stands at Claiborne ($10,000) with first foals in 2013. 
    Tapizar (Tapit) finished fifth, but came back to win the 2012 GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Santa Anita. He stands at Gainesway ($15,000) and has first foals this year. 
    Jersey Town (Speightstown) finished sixth. Another tough miler, he raced until age six, winning the GI Cigar Mile at four and defeating Shackleford in the GII Kelso H. at six in 2012. He also stands at Darby Dan ($10,000) and has first foals in 2014. 
    Wilburn (Bernardini) defeated Shackleford and Caleb’s Posse in the GII Indiana Derby, but wasn’t as effective around the one turn at Churchill finishing seventh in the 2011 Dirt Mile. He was retired to Spendthrift ($6,500) after that race and had his first foals in 2013. 
    The Factor, as described above, came back to win the GI Malibu and registered his fourth Grade I or Grade II win at seven furlongs in the following season’s 
GII San Carlos H. He stands at Lane’s End ($15,000) and has first foals in 2014. 
    I thought this made very interesting reading. There are plenty of other promising sires with plenty of other good stories in these two sire crops, so it will be intriguing to follow their commercial fortunes as the year progresses. We continue to look for those vital clues as to which sires might be the right ones to follow up the ladder. 
    Bill Oppenheim will be on holiday for the next three weeks. The Weekly Sales Ticker returns on March 12. Bill’s column resumes March 19. In the meantime, he will Tweet. 
Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at bopp@erb.com (please cc TDN management at suefinley@thoroughbreddailynews.com). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.