November Sales Debutants

by Bill Oppenheim
   There will be a lot of handicapping going on over the next few days, in the first instance for the ultra-competitive Breeders’ Cup cards Friday and Saturday. Last year the stars aligned for once and I hit the jackpot wheeling the ill-fated Chriselliam (Iffraaj) in the GI Juvenile Fillies Turf, which ironically (since it was run in California) earned her the title of Europe’s champion 2-year-old filly. 
I would be lying through my teeth if I pretended I had done any real handicapping yet for the Breeders’ Cup races, but I have had a good look at that same race again, the GI Juvenile Fillies Turf, and once again I have a strong fancy. This is David Mowat’s Ten Broeck Farm’s Sunset Glow (Exchange Rate). She was part of trainer Wesley Ward’s 2014 Ascot team, and while she didn’t win, her close second to subsequent G1 Moyglare Stud S. winner Cursory Glance (Distorted Humor) is unquestionably, in my mind, the best piece of form in the race. Subsequently she has run twice at Del Mar on the all-weather, winning the GII Sorrento and 
GI Del Mar Debutante S. Lady Eli (Divine Park) might be the biggest danger (other than my tipping her) but, for the moment at least, Sunset Glow is my Nap of the meet. 
Next week the handicapping moves to Lexington, but then the task will not be about handicapping races, but about handicapping sires. The TDN team counts 29 stallions represented by their first foals at Fasig or Keeneland, and 37 stallions which covered their first mares this year. Of the 29 with their first foals, 11 have four or more catalogued between Fasig and Keeneland Books 1 and 2. Click here for list of first-season sires of weanlings in the Kentucky November sales. 
Over those five days, the four stallions with the highest representations are two from WinStar and two from Lane’s End. WinStar’s Bodemeister (Empire Maker), who won the GI Arkansas Derby and was a game second to I’ll Have Another (Flower Alley) in both the GI Kentucky Derby and GI Preakness, has 24 foals catalogued between Fasig and Keeneland Books 1-2; and WinStar’s Gemologist (Tiznow), the 2012 GI Wood Memorial winner, has 17. Lane’s End stands Union Rags (Dixie Union), runner-up to Bodemeister by number catalogued in the first five days of the Kentucky sales, with 23; and The Factor, from War Front’s first crop, a winner of five Grade I or Grade II races–four at seven furlongs and the GII Rebel S. at 
8 1/2 furlongs–and one of the stars who put his sire firmly on the map. He has 20 catalogued over the first five days. Union Rags is particularly interesting from a pedigree angle. He is by Dixie Union, broke his maiden at five furlongs, and won the GII Saratoga Special at 
6 1/2 furlongs. But to look at, I thought, anyway, he is very Nijinsky. His second dam is Terpsichorist, by Nijinsky, and in that vein Union Rags won the 
GI Champagne at one mile as a 2-year–old and went on to win the GI Belmont S. at three. 
Darby Dan’s Shackleford (Forestry), winner of the 2011 GI Preakness S. and 2012 GI Met Mile, has 13 catalogued in the first five days. Gainesway’s 2012 
GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Tapizar (Tapit) has 11, and Coolmore Ashford’s Stay Thirsty, the 2011 
GI Travers and 2012 GI Cigar Mile winner from Bernardini’s first crop, has 10. Gainesway’s To Honor And Serve (also Bernardini) and Hansen (Tapit), who stood one season at Ashford before being sold to South Korea, have seven each. 
Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Maclean’s Music (Distorted Humor), who ran a hole in the wind (Beyer 114, fastest debut Beyer ever) in his only lifetime start, has five–four at Fasig; and Airdrie’s Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway) has four. 
I’ll be modeling my Creative Cause baseball cap next week. I like that horse because he was always right there in the toughest company. 
Speaking of horses I personally like (not to be confused with anything objective), Darley’s Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux) has the most mares in foal catalogued of any first-year covering sire between Fasig and Keeneland Books 1-2, with 23. He is the only horse to win the GI Kentucky Derby (on the dirt) and G1 Dubai World Cup (synthetic, at the time), and he also threw a scare into Wise Dan in the 2012 GI Breeders’ Cup Mile on the turf. Really good credentials and a very strong pedigree, too, especially with that tough, German Acatenango dam. Click here for list of first-season covering sires in the Kentucky November sales. 
WinStar’s Paynter (Awesome Again, and a 3/4-brother to Calumet’s 2012 GI Preakness winner Oxbow, who also has first mares in foal selling), second to Union Rags in the GI Belmont S. and winner of the GI Haskell S., has 19 catalogued in the first five days. Hill ’n’ Dale’s Violence (Medaglia d’Oro), who won the GI CashCall Futurity (the same race won by Into Mischief a few years earlier) and was second to Orb in the 2013 GII Fountain of Youth S., has 18 catalogued in the first five days (and 37 total). He has been described by more than one of the ‘judges’ as ‘the best-looking stallion prospect standing in Kentucky.’ Wow. 
Claiborne’s Orb (Malibu Moon), the 2013 GI Kentucky Derby winner, has 12 catalogued (11 in Keeneland Book 1), and Adena Springs’ Point of Entry (Dynaformer), a top turf horse who won five Grade Is from 9-12 furlongs at four and five, has 11. Coolmore Ashford’s 2012 2-year-old champion Shanghai Bobby (Harlan’s Holiday) has nine. WinStar’s Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy) has seven mares in foal catalogued in the first five days and Taylor Made’s Graydar(Unbridled’s Song) has six. 
Adena Springs’ Fort Larned (E Dubai), the 2012 
GI Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, has 39 catalogued throughout the sales. 

NEXT COLUMN: Friday, November 7, covering Fasig and Keeneland Book 1. I may tweet in the meantime. 
Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at bopp@erb.com (please cc TDN management at suefinley@thoroughbreddailynews.com). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.