Oppenheim–Book 1, Week 2

Book 1 is ‘in the books’, as they say, with mixed reviews–primarily logistic: should 760 horses be spread over four days, or would it work more efficiently over three? Should Book 1 in fact go back to two days? These are questions Keeneland will be considering when all the dust settles, and it is certainly the case that sales companies are the quickest to adapt format changes, so I’m sure nothing is ruled in or out. Consignors and buyers alike have plenty of input into the process, and there are logistical limitations to do with the number of barns and movement of horses in and out. So those issues can be deferred while we get on with the rest of the sale, or, as some like to call it the ‘real’ sale. 

That implies there was something unreal about Book 1/Week 1, but all they really mean is that prices begin to fall more towards the “workingman’s” level. There were 13% fewer catalogued to Book 1 this year, and 13% fewer sold, so the clearance rate from the catalogue was essentially the same, around 62-63%, in other words, five out of eight. Last year an astronomical 72.5% of the Week 2 horses catalogued were listed as sold; there are over 300 more horses catalogued in the ‘back books’ this year, and one more day (nine vs. eight), so we will have to see whether such a phenomenal clearance rate can be maintained. Last year’s Week 2 gross leapt by 46% from the previous year, and the average rose by 24%, so the bar is set pretty high for the next few days; sustaining 2013’s gains would probably be just fine. 

With 13% fewer yearlings catalogued and sold in Book 1 compared to last year–the first with the four-day Book 1 format–the Book 1 gross dipped 7%, from $153-million to $142-million, while the average rose 7%, to $300,535–very tempting to say the a Book 1 horse is a $300,000 yearling, isn’t it? As you can see from the accompanying table, 21 sires had a total of eight or more yearlings sell this week. This is an important group, because they accounted for 73% of the horses catalogued in Book 1; 76% of the horses sold; and 81% of the money spent (about $115-million of the $142-million total). 

Gainesway’s Tapit, now the number one sales sire in North America as well as number one on the General Sire List, was the leading sire by gross sales–by a mile: his 32 yearlings grossed $20,890,000, nearly 15% of the Book 1 gross–as well as by average. His 32 averaged $652,812 for the week. At one point I was standing talking to somebody and it seemed like every time you looked up it was Tapit 700, Tapit 700, Tapit 725, Tapit 700. Rat-a-tat-Tapit. There’s just nothing you’d rather have right now than a Tapit. 

Claiborne’s War Front rallied on Thursday, headed by a co-sales-topping $2.2-million colt consigned by Claiborne to finish second, with a $545,000 average for 14 sold. Darley’s Bernardini ran third with a $432,631 average for 19 sold, thanks to some spectacular pedigrees resulting from his hot start with his 2011 three-year-olds; and WinStar’s Tiznow had two $1-million yearlings on Thursday to grab fourth spot on average among the 21 sires, finishing Book 1 with 15 yearlings sold for an average of $387,667. Seven other sires averaged between $278,000-$332,000, of which we would particularly note Darley’s Medaglia d’Oro, fifth on average ($332,619) but more notably had 21 sell of 24 catalogued (87.5%); and Lane’s End’s Candy Ride, who really arrived commercially last week, with 18 yearlings averaging $278,055 but an even higher $300,000 median as 10 of his 18 sold brought $300,000 or more. Last week also marked the commercial arrival of Ramsey Farm’s 2013 champion sire Kitten’s Joy, whose 19 yearlings sold averaged $243,421, off his 2012 stud fee of $50,000. 

Whereas Book 1 was very much a catalogue for proven sires, beginning with Book 2 today we will see a lot more by unproven stallions and younger sires. There are 27 sires with 40 or more yearlings catalogued from here on out; 14 of these are sires with their first 4-year-olds or younger 2014, and 13 of the 27 are sires with first 5-year-olds and up this year. Eight of the 14 younger sires have their first yearlings, headed by Ashford’s Uncle Mo, with 75 catalogued in Books 2-6. Ashford compatriot Cape Blanco has 61 over the next nine days. Spendthrift’s Archarcharch has 57, while WinStar’s Sidney’s Candy has 56 catalogued, along with his barn mate Drosselmeyer, who has 42. Claiborne’s Trappe Shot has 49 in the ‘back books’, Castleton Lyons’ Gio Ponti has 47, and Airdrie’s Haynesfield has 44 catalogued. So if you’ve been wondering where are all the yearlings by the new sires, the answer is ‘here’. 

Three sires with their first 2-year-olds have 40+ catalogued in Week 2, headed by WinStar’s leading freshman sire sensation Super Saver, with 51 catalogued. Taylor Made’s Eskendereya has 41, Ashford’s Lookin’ At Lucky has 40. WinStar’s Colonel John, who has 63 catalogued this week, is the only sire with first 3-year-olds on this list. With their first 4-year-olds are Ashford’s Majestic Warrior, with 51, and Spendthrift’s Tiz Wonderful, who currently stands second on the 2014 TDN YTD North American third-crop sire list, with 43 yearlings. The leading third-crop sire, incidentally, Lane’s End’s Curlin, has 34 yearlings catalogued this week. 

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM: is next Thursday, Sept. 18. There was seemingly a surge for Yes (secession from the United Kingdom) late last week, but the betting on Betfair suggests No (stay in the U.K.) is again a firm favorite. At one point last week Yes had shortened to almost 2-1 against, but now it is back out to 7-2. On Betfair yesterday, No was 4-1 on, meaning you bet a dollar (if you could bet on this in the U.S.) to win 25c and get back $1.25. My guess is it will be 55-45 No. 

UNABASHED ENDORSEMENT: It’s hard to find many administrators that people actually like, but we have nothing but praise for Patrick Thompson, the Lexington-based Administrator of the National Racing Compact, and his team. I needed to go and re-up my credentials, and Patrick and his office could not have been more helpful. If you remember the tortuous process of getting credentialed in the old days you’ll appreciate, as I did, the friendly, efficient process we and our credit cards enjoy now. 

NEXT COLUMN: next Thursday, September 18 (voting day in Scotland), covering Books 2 & 3.