Oppenheim: Dubawi Week (2)

Last week it was Dubawi week at Tattersalls’ October Book 1 yearling sale, as the Maktoum family and friends bought all 10 which sold during Book 1, for an average of nearly $1.1-million, topping even the mighty Galileo at the sales. This week his son, Poet’s Voice, consolidated his own lead among 2014 first-crop yearling sires, with a record Book 2 yearling sold for 525,000gns. Poet’s Voice had leapt to the top of the first-crop table by virtue of a colt and a filly which sold last Thursday for 475,000gns and 700,000gns respectively, not to the Maktoums, but to the new boys in town, Qatar’s Prince Joaan Al-Thani’s Al Shaqab Racing. Sheikh Hamdan’s Shadwell Stud bought this week’s sale-topper. 

Dubawi’s ascension to the lofty position of Europe’s consensus number two sire, behind only the incomparable Galileo, came as somewhat of a surprise to begin with, but it doesn’t take breeders so long to realize the really good ones who have risen through the ranks. Dubawi’s first 4-year-olds were racing in 2011, and by the time the current crop of yearlings was sired, in early 2012, Dubawi’s fee had risen to GBP75,000–if you could get one. He’s always had the reputation as a sire of pretty ordinary-looking horses, but this crop comes from a whole new set of pedigrees, and the relative few that were up for sale–only 14 have been offered, 12 sold, average $1,052,926 (click here)–sure must have looked the part. His median price, for 12 sold, was $983,803, which is perilously close to a $1-million median. 

For pedigree students Dubawi’s ascension presents two ironies. The first irony is that he is from the only crop (2002) by Dubai Millennium, who Sheikh Mohammed has been quoted as saying he believed was about the best horse he’s ever had, and Dubawi is achieving what Dubai Millennium never had a chance to achieve. In that regard, as I’ve mentioned before, it parallels Seattle Slew being one of only 60 foals (in two crops, in those days) by Bold Reasoning, and yet it really was Seattle Slew, especially through A.P. Indy, who has ensured the survival of the Bold Ruler sire line, at least until now–and Tapit may be poised to keep it going. The second irony is that Dubawi could be either the major, or one of the major, surviving branches of Mr. Prospector, which has been such a powerful sire line in American breeding. Fappiano was by Mr. Prospector, it is true, but he branched off into his own, pretty much dirt/American line. Dubai Millennium, of course, was by Seeking The Gold, primarily known as a top filly and broodmare sire, by Mr. Prospector. 

Dubawi went to stud in 2006 for GBP25,000, having won the G1 National S. over seven furlongs at the Curragh at two, and the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas and G1 Prix Jacques Le Marois, both at a mile, at three. He qualified as a good prospect, though not as a top prospect, judged by his stud fee. A good number of his early good horses won their Group 1s in Dubai and Hong Kong, and/or were geldings. He will now have more flashily-bred sons going to stud, but his first ‘commercial’ prospect, if you will, is Poet’s Voice, from Dubawi’s first crop, and who stands alongside his sire at Darley’s Dalham Hall Stud near Newmarket. Bred by Darley out of the Chief’s Crown mare, Bright Tiara, Poet’s Voice won four of his 16 career starts, including the seven-furlong G2 Champagne S. at Doncaster as a 2-year-old, and the G1 Queen Elizabeth S., scoring a nose decision over Rip Van Winkle, at three. 

Poet’s Voice wasn’t really a horse I had too much awareness of, but I did see a couple of yearlings by him in the Gestut Fahrhof consignment at the Baden-Baden yearling sale at the end of August, and remarked to someone how good-looking they were, especially considering he’s by Dubawi (the two sold for €110,000 and €61,000). They replied they had also seen some good-looking ones, and clearly, by last week, the word was well and truly out on the street. By the end of Book 1 last week, he had established himself as the clear leader among 2014 North American and European first-crop yearling sires, and the 525,000gns Book 2 colt solidified it (click here). Through the end of Book 2 on Wednesday, Poet’s Voice had 49 yearlings sell for an average of $173,389. Irish sires Pour Moi (Coolmore) and Dream Ahead (Ballylinch) had averaged $136,049 and $132,445 respectively, while America’s ‘market find’ and leading first-crop yearling sire, Claiborne’s Trappe Shot, has averaged $132,232. Ashford’s Uncle Mo has averaged $119,250 with an amazing 84 sold. Kentucky’s Gio Ponti, Cape Blanco, and Tizway, and Coolmore’s Zoffany and Canford Cliffs all also averaged over $80,000, through Wednesday. Interestingly, five of that top 10 (Pour Moi, Zoffany, Canford Cliffs, Uncle Mo, and Cape Blanco) stand at either Coolmore or Ashford. 

We should also note the impact of the Maktoum family in October Books 1 and 2. Not even attempting to take into account a couple of Rabbah-managed buyers who still do their own thing at the sales, John Ferguson plus Rabbah signed for 72 yearlings in Book 1, and 61 yearlings in Book 2–total 133. Sheikh Hamdan’s Shadwell signed for 13 in Book 1 and 36 in Book 2–total 49. Among John Ferguson, Rabbah, and Shadwell, that’s 182 yearlings (18% of the 996 sold, or two of every 11), for a total spend of 34,270,500gns– 28% of the October Books 1 and 2 total. 

The major yearling market winds up with Tattersalls’ October Book 3 yesterday and today, and the Arqana October Sale, which runs next Monday through Thursday, and includes the last four yearlings to be offered by the great German Uber-sire, Monsun. Our next column, therefore, will run next Saturday, October 25, at the finish of the major 2014 yearling sales.