Oppenheim: Intermediate Classes

As we have mentioned before, once a horse shows up as an A Runner on one of our annual lists it goes into a separate file, which we call ‘Unique’ A Runners, where they are only counted once, whereas in the rolling 7-year APEX files, a horse is counted once every year it reaches the A Runner earnings threshold, meaning in theory it could be counted as up to seven A Runners over a seven-year period. Today we focus on a list of 16 North American and European sires which have emerged as the leaders among three crops of sires: those with first foals 2009 (first 6-year-olds 2015); first foals 2010 (first 5-year-olds 2015); and 2011 (first foals 4-year-olds 2015). While there is high correlation between the sires the market perceives and rates as leaders of each sire crop, these are not necessarily all the leading sires in their groups either by A Runner Index (2008-2014), or by percentage of Unique A Runners (from named foals of racing age, not including 2-year-olds of 2015). 

These are sires which are at the intermediate stages of their careers, having two, three, or four crops of racing age through 2014. The average age of the 16 sires is 11. The average stud fee works out at around $47,000, though only five of the 16 stand for $50,000 or more; the median stud fee for the 16 is $35,000–a number which keeps cropping up as the price for the good sires on their way up, and the best prospects which were stars, but maybe not superstars on the racetrack. For the 16 sires covered today, five of which have already ranked among the top 20 on the TDN general sire list either this year or last year (not necessarily the same five which stand for $50,000 or more), their average percentage of Unique A Runners is 4.61%. As you can see from the comparative examples run at the bottom of the attached table (click here), the real superstar sires average around 8%. One way of stating what this tells us is that for a (median) stud fee of $35,000, a young proven sire, who might even rank in the top 20 on the general sire list, is likely to be siring in the neighborhood of 4.50% Unique A Runners/foals. 

The crop of North American and European sires with first foals of 2009 has a lot of depth, with eight sires which make this list, though there is not a standout, world top 12 sire on the numbers. Recall that, in 2006, Sheikh Mohammed renounced using Coolmore stallions, and spent $60 million at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale. The next year, Darley’s focus shifted and they spent an estimated $200 million buying most of the top 3-year-olds of 2007 which could be bought. Five of the seven horses they retired in NA/EU for the 2008 covering season (first foals 2009) were 3-year-olds of 2007: Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Any Given Saturday in America, and Authorized and Teofilo in Europe. Discreet Cat and Manduro were the two older horses among the seven. Four of the seven make this list, including the top three by percentage of Unique A Runners/foals: Street Sense (5.56% A Runners/foals); Teofilo (5.18%); and Hard Spun (4.95%). Ashford’s Scat Daddy (4.79%) comes next, ahead of Darley’s Discreet Cat (4.68%); Ireland’s Morristown Lattin’s Dark Angel (4.64%); Calumet’s English Channel (4.32%); and England’s Cheveley Park Stud’s Dutch Art (4.11%). Four of these eight are among the top 25 on the 2015 TDN YTD General Sire List , through last weekend’s racing (click here): #6 English Channel; #8 Street Sense; #15 Scat Daddy; and #21 Hard Spun. 

From three crops averaging just 35 foals per crop, Spendthrift’s Into Mischief (7.62%) registers a percentage of Unique A Runners/foals which puts him in the same ballpark as the 8% sires like Tapit and War Front. He only has around 35 2-year-olds this year also, but he started covering 200+ mares in 2013, so there should be lots of yearlings by him being offered this year from a single crop about the size of his four previous crops combined. 

Both Hill ’n’ Dale’s Midnight Lute (4.76%) and Lane’s End’s Curlin (4.33%) have announced themselves as big-league sires as well, though Darley’s 2008 G1 Epsom Derby winner New Approach (3.14%) looked like he was going to knock it out of the park when he had three Royal Ascot 2-year-old winners from his first crop. His progress has rather stalled the last year or so; still, the caliber of his mares took a big upturn with his current crop of yearlings, who were out of much better mares than he had up until then. 

Among the sires whose third crops of 2-year-olds are getting ready to run (first foals 2011) and whose oldest crops have just turned four, the standouts so far are WinStar’s Pioneerof the Nile (6.21%) in North America, and Gilltown Stud’sSea The Stars (5.00%) in Europe– no big surprise, considering he is a half-brother to Galileo and the best racehorse seen in Europe in the previous 40 years. Leading young French sire Le Havre (2.86%), at the Haras de la Cauviniere and sire of Avenir Certain; and Coolmore’s Mastercraftsman (2.68%), sire of Kingston Hill and The Grey Gatsby will no doubt improve their percentages as their second crops of 3-year-olds get going. 

Second-Crop Sires… 
Firing Line’s 14-length demolition of the GIII Sunland Derby field, coupled with Maybelline’s win by disqualification of her stablemate Callback (Street Sense) in Sunday’s Sunland Park Oaks, meant their respective sires–Spendthrift’s Line of David and Ashford’s Lookin At Lucky–leapfrogged Ashford barnmate Munnings into the top two spots on the 2015 YTD TDN Second-Crop Sire List (click here). The 2010 front-running GI Arkansas Derby winner, by a diminishing neck from Super Saver, Line of David is working off a crop of 45 foals, and how has six black-type horses, also including California Derby winner Cross The Line. Given he was advertised for $2,000 for this season, Line of David must have been 100-1 to be leading second-crop sire at any time. He is now #7 on the cumulative second-crop sire list, one place ahead of another successful-looking Spendthrift project, Temple City. His only black-type win was in the 12-furlong GIII Cougar II. H. on the synthetic at Del Mar as a 5-year-old, but he is by Dynaformer out of a Danzig half-sister to Malibu Moon. Five of his six black-type horses so far have earned black type on the grass, though one of those, Bolo, ran third to Dortmund (Big Brown) in the GII San Felipe S. on the dirt, and is due back for the GI Santa Anita Derby. Into Mischief, Line of David, and Temple City: not obvious picks to make successful sires–and of course there have been a few misfires–but you have to give credit to B. Wayne Hughes and the Spendthrift team. They are producing sires, and not from the likeliest places. 

Meanwhile, Lookin At Lucky has moved into the top spot on the second-crop cumulative sire list (click here), overtaking last year’s two-one on the freshman sire list, WinStar’s Super Saver and Lane’s End’s Quality Road. Lookin At Lucky had been third on the freshman sire list, and Munnings, who led the 2015 list until this week, had been fifth. He is now #4 on the cumulative list. Taylor Made’s Eskendereya, a son of Giant’s Causeway and impressive winner of the GII Fountain of Youth S. (Beyer 106) and GI Wood Memorial (Beyer 109) before injury knocked him off the Classic trail and ultimately forced him into retirement, is the leading second-crop sire by number of 2015 winners with 19, and seems to be knocking in maiden winners at good tracks every time you turn around. There could be plenty more shake-ups in this list in the next few weeks, but the good news is the F2012’s are beginning to look like a pretty good sire crop. 

He’s not a second-crop sire, having been the champion 3-year-old of 2005, but we’re all always looking for a proven sire at a bargain price, and Gainesway’s Afleet Alex, advertised at $12,500 this year, might suddenly look like a real bargain if the Pletcher-trained Materiality can successfully step up to Grade I company in next Saturday’s GI Florida Derby. He was a very impressive winner last out in the Islamorada H. at Gulfstream Mar. 6. Afleet Alex already has one top colt from his 2012 crop, 2014 GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red, unfortunately off the Derby Trail, and he had a big 2014 Breeders’ Cup, as the then-4-year-old filly Iotapa ran third to Untapable in the GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff one day prior to Texas Red’s surprising, but impressive win. Afleet Alex’s 1.77 A Runner Index makes him–by definition–good value at $12,500, and connections will be hoping a big run by Materiality will get his sire’s name right back on the front pages.

Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at bopp@erb.com (please cc TDN management at suefinley@thoroughbreddailynews.com). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.