If there is an owner in the Thoroughbred business who is 'owed' a Classic victory, it just might be Ahmed Zayat. Since entering the game a decade ago, the successful businessman has amassed an impressive–and indeed–improbable record in the American Classics, with no fewer than three runner-up finishes in the GI Kentucky Derby, another in the GI Preakness S. and one more in the GI Belmont S. Team Zayat will have its best chance at success in Saturday's Run for the Roses in the form of homebred American Pharoah, a son of 2009 Derby second place-getter Pioneerof the Nile, who, with the Thursday scratch of GII Louisiana Derby runner-up Stanford (Malibu Moon), will try to become the first horse in the history of the race to prove victorious from gate 17 in the field of 20 horses.
American Pharoah was scheduled to be one of three runners in the race for Zayat Stables, but the New York-based 'TDN Rising Star' El Kabeir (Scat Daddy) was officially scratched Friday afternoon. Mr. Z (Malibu Moon), has the chance–albeit a longshot opportunity–to provide trainer D. Wayne Lukas with a fifth Derby trophy.
The 5-2 favorite on the morning line, American Pharoah has never really been tested in posting four consecutive wins following a fifth-place effort in his career debut over the Del Mar Polytrack last August. Those victories have come by a combined 22 1/4 lengths, including an eight-length thrashing of Far Right (Notional) in the GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 11.
The athletic bay colt showed a new and potentially lethal dimension on that Hot Springs afternoon, sitting kindly off a rival before finding the line strongly with the tank apparently far from empty. American Pharoah had the clockers aghast in his final workout over the Churchill main track last Sunday (5f in :58.40), and it's all systems go, according to Zayat.
“I want to focus on the positive, and there's a lot,” Zayat said. “I'm very proud of my horses in the Derby. I'm very proud of my trainer. [American Pharoah] is one different horse. I don't how, other than the fact that we bred him. He is totally Zayat blood from A to Z. If you want to be in the Derby and you want to come with a horse that you feel would have a decent chance that would be the one. For that, it means a lot for us. It's a privilege just to be here. It's a humbling experience.”
Victor Espinoza inherited the mount on American Pharoah and broke the colt's maiden in the GI Del Mar Futurity. He is in line for a third riding victory in the Run for the Roses and second in as many years after guiding California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) to an easy success in last year's Derby. It will be up to him to work out a trip from the high draw, but he should be able to use his speed to cross much of the inside traffic and either stalk the pace or make the running if the tempo is more moderate.
Competition Anything 'Mund'-ane…
Undefeated Dortmund (Big Brown), one of five 'TDN Rising Stars' entered for this year's Derby, could be the biggest thorn in the side of his stable companion and is set to make trainer Bob Baffert the first to saddle the first two betting choices in the Run for the Roses since Bobby Frankel sent out Empire Maker and Peace Rules a dozen years ago.
There are scarcely negatives to be found with Dortmund, who earned his Rising Star with a romping allowance victory Nov. 29 and posted battling defeats of Firing Line (Line of David) in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity and in the GII Robert B. Lewis S. The strapping chestnut proceeded to beat Bolo (Temple City) into third in the GII San Felipe S. Mar. 7 and is exiting a 4 1/4-length success in the GI Santa Anita Derby Apr. 4, the same route employed last year by California Chrome. Given his size and scope, the agile Dortmund should be easy to find early.
“He's a horse that gets going. He's quick,” Baffert explained. “He'll be right there in the mix.”
The two Bafferts, clearly the best in the west, will have to deal with some beasts from the east, primarily in the form of GI TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial S. winner Frosted (Tapit), who atoned for subpar efforts in Florida to defeatTencendur (Warrior's Reward) by a solid two lengths Apr. 4. Upstart (Flatter) vanquished Frosted in the GII Holy Bull S. in his seasonal debut Jan. 24, but was controversially disqualified to second behind Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid) in the GII Fountain of Youth S. Feb. 22. He couldn't quite claw past 'Rising Star' Materiality (Afleet Alex) in the GI Florida Derby last time out, but it likely to sit a more favorable off-pace trip this time as he tries to turn the tables.
Add to the mix longshot exotic hopes such as Far Right (Notional), Keen Ice (Curlin) and the intriguing presence of G2 UAE Derby victor Mubtaahij (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) and there are all the makings for a truly memorable running of the Run for the Roses.
El Kabeir Scratched…
'TDN Rising Star' El Kabeir (Scat Daddy), most recently third to Frosted (Tapit) in the GI TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial S., took a 'few cautious steps' Friday morning, did not go to the track and was originally s now a 'wait-and-see proposition' for Saturday's GI Kentucky Derby. Later in the afternoon, HRTV's Simon Bray reported that he had received a call from owner Ahmed Zayat, who confirmed that the gray colt would indeed be scratched.
Bray indicated that El Kabeir was still moving 'gingerly' during the afternoon hours Friday and that connections were committed to doing what was best for the horse. Winner of the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill last November, the $250,000 OBS August yearling purchase had a productive winter in New York, winning the GIII Jerome S. and the GIII Gotham S. either side of a runner-up effort in the GIII Withers S.
Instead of the horses outside El Kabeir's stall seven moving down to the inside, the one hole will now be left open with no gaps further down. Program numbers remain the same.
Saturday, Churchill Downs, post time: 6:34 p.m. EDT
KENTUCKY DERBY-GI, $2,000,000, 3yo, 1 1/4m
PP HORSE SIRE ODDS
1 Ocho Ocho Ocho K Street Sense 50-1
($50,000 yrl '13 KEESEP; $200,000 2yo '14 OBSAPR)
O-DP Racing LLC; B-Siena Farms LLC (KY); T-James M Cassidy;
J-Elvis Trujillo. Lifetime Record: 5-3-0-1, $793,850.
Last Start: 3rd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. Apr. 4
2 Carpe Diem K Giant's Causeway 8-1
($550,000 yrl '13 KEESEP; $1,600,000 2yo '14 OBSMAR)
O-WinStar Farm & Stonestreet Stables; B-Coffee Pot Stable (KY);
T-Todd A Pletcher; J-John Velazquez. Lifetime Record: 5-4-1-0, $1,519,800. Last Start: WON GI Toyota Blue Grass S. Apr. 4
3 Materiality K Afleet Alex 12-1
($260,000 yrl '13 KEESEP; $400,000 2yo '14 FTMMAY)
O-Alto Racing LLC; B-John D Gunther (KY); T-Todd A Pletcher;
J-Javier Castellano. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $656,028.
Last Start: WON GI Florida Derby Mar. 28
4 Tencendur Warrior's Reward 30-1
O/B-Philip S Birsh (NY); T-George Weaver; J-Manny Franco. Lifetime Record: 5-1-1-1, $253,500. Last Start: 2nd GI Wood Memorial S. Apr. 4
5 Danzig Moon K Malibu Moon 30-1
($160,000 yrl '13 KEESEP)
O-John C Oxley; B-William D Graham (ON); T-Mark Casse; J-Julien Leparoux. Lifetime Record: 5-1-2-0, $251,120.
Last Start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. Apr. 4
6 Mubtaahij (Ire) Dubawi (Ire) 20-1
(€450,000 yrl '13 ARQAUG)
O-Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum; B-Dunmore Stud Ltd;
T-Michael F De Kock; J-Christophe Soumillon. Lifetime Record: 7-4-1-0, $1,461,332. Last Start: WON G2 UAE Derby Mar. 28
7 El Kabeir Scat Daddy 30-1
($250,000 yrl '13 OBSAUG)
O-Zayat Stables LLC; B-Rustlewood Farm Inc (FL); T-John P Terranova III; J-Calvin Borel. Lifetime Record: 9-4-2-2, $768,892.
Last Start: 3rd GI Wood Memorial Apr. 4
8 Dortmund K Big Brown 3-1
($85,000 RNA wnlg '12 KEENOV; $90,000 yrl '13 FTKJUL;
$140,000 2yo '14 FTMMAY)
O-Kaleem Shah Inc; B-Emilie Gerlinde Fojan (KY); T-Bob Baffert;
J-Martin Garcia. Lifetime Record: 6-6-0-0, $1,289,400.
Last Start: WON GI Santa Anita Derby Apr. 4
9 Bolo Temple City 30-1
O-Golden Pegasus Racing Inc & Earle I Mack; B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY); T-Carla Gaines; J-Rafael Bejarano. Lifetime Record: 5-2-0-2, $249,700.
Last Start: 3rd GI Santa Anita Derby
10 Firing Line K Line of David 12-1
($65,000 wnlg '12 KEENOV; $150,000 yrl '13 FTKJUL;
$240,000 2yo '14 KEEAPR)
O-Arnold Zetcher LLC; B-Clearsky Farm (KY); T-Simon Callaghan;
J-Gary Stevens. Lifetime Record: 5-2-3-0, $574,800.
Last Start: WON GIII Sunland Derby Mar. 22
11 Stanford K Malibu Moon 30-1
($120,000 yrl '13 KEESEP; $550,000 2yo '14 BESMAR)
O-Stonestreet Stables LLC, Smith, Tabor & Magnier; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Todd A Pletcher; J-Florent Geroux. Lifetime Record:
5-2-1-0, $199,400.
Last Start: 2nd GII Louisiana Derby Mar. 28
12 International Star Fusaichi Pegasus 20-1
($85,000 yrl '13 FTMSEP)
O-Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey; B-Katharine M Voss & Robert T Manfuso (NY); T-Michael Maker; J-Miguel Mena. Lifetime Record: 9-5-2-0, $1,010,979.
Last Start: WON GII Louisiana Derby
13 Itsaknockout K Lemon Drop Kid 30-1
($130,000 wnlg '12 KEENOV; $350,000 yrl '13 FTSAUG)
O-Starlight Racing; B-Brookfield Stud (KY); T-Todd A Pletcher; J-Luis Saez. Lifetime Record: 4-3-0-0, $335,360.
Last Start: 4th GI Florida Derby Mar. 28
14 Keen Ice K Curlin 50-1
($48,000 wnlg '12 KEENOV; $120,000 yrl '13 KEESEP)
O-Donegal Racing; B-Glencrest Farm LLC (KY); T-Dale Romans;
J-Kent Desormeaux. Lifetime Record: 7-1-0-2, $160,395.
Last Start: 3rd GII Louisiana Derby
15 Frosted Tapit 15-1
O-Godolphin Racing LLC; B-Darley (KY); T-Kiaran McLaughlin; J-Joel Rosario. Lifetime Record: 7-2-4-0, $836,800.
Last Start: WON GI Wood Memorial
16 War Story K Northern Afleet 50-1
($90,000 yrl '13 KEESEP; $58,000 RNA 2yo '14 OBSMAR;
$51,000 2yo '14 FTMMAY)
O-Loooch Racing Stables Inc, Glenn Ellis & Christopher Dunn; B-Jack Swain III (KY); T-Tom Amoss; J-Joe Talamo.
Last Start: 3rd GII Louisiana Derby
17 Mr. Z K Malibu Moon 50-1
($60,000 RNA yrl '13 KEESEP; $135,000 yrl '13 FTKOCT)
O-Zayat Stables LLC; B-Richard D Maynard (KY); T-D Wayne Lukas;
J-Ramon Vasquez. Lifetime Record: 12-1-4-4, $652,226.
Last Start: 3rd GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 11
18 American Pharoah Pioneerof the Nile 5-2
($300,000 yrl '13 FTSAUG)
O/B-Zayat Stables (KY); T-Bob Baffert; J-Victor Espinoza. Lifetime Record: 5-4-0-0, $1,411,500.
Last Start: WON GI Arkansas Derby
19 Upstart Flatter 15-1
($130,000 yrl '13 FTNAUG)
O-Ralph M Evans; B-Mrs Gerald A Nielsen (NY); T-Richard A Violette Jr; J-Jose Ortiz. Lifetime Record: 7-3-3-1, $971,480.
Last Start: 2nd GI Florida Derby
20 Far Right K Notional 30-1
($2,500 yrl '13 KEEJAN)
O-Robert V LaPenta & Harry T Rosenblum; B-Nossab LLC & Patrick J Crowley (KY); T-Mike Smith. Lifetime Record: 9-3-3-2, $625,766.
Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby
21 Frammento K Midshipman
($50,000 wnlg '12 KEENOV; $85,000 yrl '13 FTKJUL;
$260,000 2yo '14 FTFMAR)
O-Mossarosa; B-Mr & Mrs Oliver S Tait (KY); T-Nick Zito; J-No Rider. Lifetime Record: 7-1-1-1, $139,700.
Last Start: 4th GI Toyota Blue Grass
Tale of Verve K Tale of Ekati SCR
($150,000 yrl '13 FTSAUG; $440,000 2yo '14 KEEAPR)
O/B-Charles Fipke (KY); T-Dallas Stewart; J-No Rider. Lifetime Record: 6-1-1-2, $54,640.
Last Start: Won Keeneland maiden Apr. 23
All carry 126 pounds. = TDN Rising Star.
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