Andrew Caulfield’s Pedigree Insights

Saturday, Newmarket, Britain 
QIPCO 2000 GUINEAS S.-G1, £450,000, NKT, 5-3, 3yo, c/f, 8fT, 1:36.61, gd/fm. 
1–@sNIGHT OF THUNDER (IRE), 126, c, 3, by Dubawi (Ire) 
     1st Dam: Forest Storm (GB) (SP-Ire), by Galileo (Ire) 
     2nd Dam: Quiet Storm (Ire), by Desert Prince (Ire) 
     3rd Dam: Hertford Castle (GB), by Reference Point (GB) 
(32,000gns yrl ‘12 TATOCT). O-Saeed Manana; 
B-Frank Dunne (IRE); T-Richard Hannon; J-Kieren 
Fallon; £255,195. Lifetime Record: 4-3-1-0, 
£287,165. Werk Nick Rating: A+++ *Triple Plus*. 
Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. 
Click for the Racing Post result, the brisnet.com PPs or the free brisnet.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, courtesy Racing UK. 
The saying that “a good big ’un will always beat a good little ’un” may have some merit in the world of boxing, but how relevant is it to the Thoroughbred? The truth is that good horses come in all shapes and sizes, but it is possibly informative to take a look at some of the highest-priced stallions on both sides of the Atlantic. 
The top-priced stallions in Kentucky, at $150,000, are War Front and Tapit, who are both listed as 16 hands, and the six $100,000 stallions include the 16-hands Smart Strike and the 15.3-hands Distorted Humor. 15.3 is about as small as American breeders are prepared to go these days. 
Tapit, of course, added another Grade I winner to his impressive collection when Untapable dominated the Kentucky Oaks. In doing so, Tapit initiated a remarkable Classic double for his sire, the 16-hands Pulpit, who was also responsible for California Chrome’s sire Lucky Pulpit. And how tall is Lucky Pulpit? 16 hands, according to the Blood-Horse. 
Now let’s look at the highest-priced stallions in Europe. The top-priced proven stallion standing in Britain is Dubawi, a 15.3-hands individual whose fee has justifiably risen to £100,000. Next come the £95,000 Dansili, who stands half an inch more than 16 hands, and the £85,000 Oasis Dream, who is another that hits the measuring stick at 15.3 hands. Over in Ireland, Galileo continues his reign as easily the highest-priced stallion in the western world. He is another who stands just half an inch over 16 hands. 
Three of these European stallions made an impact on the first Classics of the English season. Night of Thunder, the surprising but exciting winner of the G1 2000 Guineas, was sired by Dubawi from a Galileo mare, while Dansili was responsible for the G1 1000 Guineas winner Miss France. 
Could it be that these smaller models help on the score of soundness? That said, you dismiss the big boys at your peril. The 17-hands Midnight Lute was responsible for Midnight Lucky, who was described by trainer Bob Baffert as “a great filly” following her GI Humana Distaff success. And over in Europe the runaway Pretty Polly S. success of Taghrooda again highlighted the promise being shown by daughters of the magnificent Sea The Stars, who stands at least 16.2. 
The stallion I am concentrating on today is Dubawi, who almost single-handedly carries the responsibility for passing on the brilliance of his sire Dubai Millennium. This son of Seeking the Gold was one of the few horses granted the accolade of a Timeform rating as high as 140, but his premature death meant that he left only 56 foals, of which 35 started. As these 35 included three group winners and a pair of listed winners, Dubai Millennium may well have developed into a major force, but his other high-class son, the quirky Echo of Light, died as a 10-year-old without siring anything of note, and we are also still waiting for the first black-type winner out of a Dubai Millennium mare. 
Ironically Dubawi is the polar opposite, physically, of his sire. Whereas Dubai Millennium developed into an imposing, deep-girthed, leggy individual standing 16.3, Dubawi is neat, muscular and comparatively lacking in range and scope. But Dubawi’s smaller size hasn’t stopped him shining very brightly, both on the track and in the breeding barn. 
Paradoxically, virtually the only disappointing moment in Dubawi’s racing career came when he started a clear favorite for the 2000 Guineas. He owed this honor to his unbeaten juvenile campaign and to his “victory” in Godolphin’s private 2000 Guineas trial at Nad Al Sheba. On ground which Timeform considered firmer than the official description of good to firm, Dubawi could finish only fifth. The four ahead of him included two which started at 100-1, so the race obviously didn’t go as expected. It wasn’t long before we saw the real Dubawi again, as he bounced straight back to take the Irish G1 2000 Guineas on good ground. He later ran with plenty of credit over too long a distance to take third place in the Derby, before successfully reverting to a mile in the G1 Prix Jacques le Marois. 
Dubawi the stallion has never stopped making amends for that 2000 Guineas disappointment and Night of Thunder is his second winner of the Newmarket Classic. His first crop featured the 2010 winner Makfi, his second included Dubawi Gold, runner-up to Frankel in 2011, and another son, Hermival, took third place behind Camelot in 2012. 
Night of Thunder nearly threw away his advantage over Kingman when he swerved markedly to his left in the closing stages. Coincidentally, Dubawi also veered markedly off a straight course–this time to his right–when he took the lead in the Irish 2000 Guineas. 
One of Dubawi’s great attractions is that he has no Danzig blood, and his two lines to both Northern Dancer and Raise a Native are sufficiently far back not to create any problems for mare owners. His lack of Danzig blood has contributed substantially to his success. Makfi, his first 2000 Guineas winner, is out of a mare by Danzig’s son Green Desert, and so are the 2000 Guineas second Dubawi Gold and the high-class Asian sprinter miler Lucky Nine. Night of Thunder also has Green Desert in his pedigree, as the grandsire of his second dam, the listed-placed Quiet Storm. Other Dubawis with a Danzig connection include the top miler Poet’s Voice (out of a Chief’s Crown mare) and the Hong Kong Derby winner Akeed Mofeed (out of a granddaughter of Danehill). 
Inevitably, Dubawi has also covered plenty of mares from the Sadler’s Wells line. As yet his record with daughters of the 14-time champion sire is comparatively unremarkable, his best efforts being the Group 3-winning stayer Fox Hunt One and the Group 1-placed Irish History. 
However, the Dalham Hall stallion is shaping up well with Sadler’s Wells’s granddaughters. He has a particularly eye-catching record with daughters of the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Barathea, siring the G1 Dubai World Cup winner Monterosso, the Group 1-winning Hunter’s Light and the Group 3 scorer Danadana. Dubawi also has two Group 2 winners and a Group 3 scorer from a small number of foals out of daughters of Entrepreneur, Imperial Ballet and Old Vic. 
Now we have the enticing prospect that sending daughters of Galileo to Dubawi could be a marriage made in heaven. Night of Thunder is one of only five runners so far sired by Dubawi from daughters of the five-time champion sire. Another of the five, Red Galileo, is also above average. Daughters of Galileo create 4×5 to Mr. Prospector and 5×4 to Northern Dancer. 
Night of Thunder’s pedigree also includes 5×5 to the great Mill Reef. Altogether Dubawi has 11 group winners which have either two lines to Mill Reef in their first five generations or to two lines to Mill Reef’s son Shirley Heights. 
Would-be buyers clearly didn’t subscribe to the marriage-made-in-heaven theory when Night of Thunder appeared in the Tattersalls sales ring as a yearling. He cost no more than 32,000gns, even though Dubawi’s fee in 2010 had been £20,000 and had risen to £75,000 by 2012. 
Perhaps buyers were deterred by the fact that none of his first three dams had succeeded in winning a stakes race and neither his second nor third dams had managed to produce a stakes winner. However, his dam Forest Storm had been second at listed level over a mile as a 2-year-old and his second dam, Quiet Storm, once went within half a length of winning a listed race over a mile and a quarter, her optimum distance. 
Needless to say, there are some more accomplished racemares further back in his female line. His fourth dam is Forest Flower was rated Europe’s champion 2-year-old filly of 1986, even though Miesque was one of her contemporaries. Forest Flower crossed the line first in five of her six juvenile starts, including the Queen Mary S. at Royal Ascot and the Cheveley Park S. (in which she was controversially disqualified). Although very small, Forest Flower trained on to take the Irish 1000 Guineas. The next dam, Leap Lively, won the Fillies Mile at two and the Lingfield Oaks Trial, before finishing a remote third in the Epsom Oaks. 
It is worth pointing out that Night of Thunder’s dam, with Galileo as her sire and a Green Desert line mare as her dam, represents a potent combination. Galileo’s first 13 starters out of Green Desert mares include 12 winners. Three of the 12 are group winners, the most accomplished being the Epsom Oaks winner Was. Galileo also sired the highly promising Australia–a fine third to Night of Thunder in the 2000 Guineas–from a granddaughter of Green Desert. 
Australia now dominates the betting for the Derby, a race which doesn’t appear to be on Night of Thunder’s agenda. This is understandable, even though Dubawi has sired numerous good winners over a mile and a quarter and a mile and a half. Providing he continues to settle well, Night of Thunder should also stay a mile and a quarter.