BetAmerica Derby Prep Showdown: Sunland Derby

Steve Sherack & Brian DiDonato will make $100 win/place bets on 20 Kentucky Derby preps. The handicapper with the highest total at the end wins.

(For the BetAmerica sign-up bonus, click here).

SS: GIII Spiral S. – Metaboss, backed down to 9-5, looked to be making a run on the turn before settling for sixth. 

GIII Sunland Derby -Can Firing Line handle the nine-furlong distance? Did those two heart-breaking defeats to Dortmund take something out of him? He should still probably win even if he doesn’t fire his best shot here, but, hey, at around 3-5 or so, he’s certainly worth taking a shot against. I’ll go with the well-bred streaking local Where’s the Moon, who has improved a ton since joining the dangerous Henry Dominguez barn. For a $27,000 KEESEP purchase, the son of Malibu Moon has a ton of pedigree, too. Produced by the Grade I-winning Storm Cat mare Aldiza, the chestnut is a half-brother to Alchemist (A.P. Indy), dam of current unbeaten Derby hopeful Far From Over (Blame). After struggling to get out of his own way for Peter Miller in Southern California last fall, Where’s the Moon has really put it together in three starts over this course in 2015. He broke through with a daylight maiden win at fifth asking Feb. 13, then returned just eight days later to impressively bring home the 1 1/16-mile Mine That Bird Derby. The Robison colorbearer will certainly have to take another leap forward to get the money here, but he should get the proper pace set-up and has been finishing his races like he wants more distance. The price should be right. Selection #3 Where’s the Moon (6-1). 

Wagered: $2,200. Current Total: $2,330.

BD: GIII Spiral S. – I was so close to picking Dubai Sky here, but the post scared me off and I ended up on overbet Metaboss. Good ride by Jose Lezcano, bad decision by me. 

GIII Sunland Derby – He can obviously win, but I’m very much against expected heavy favorite Firing Line here. He finished off his juvenile campaign with a hard-fought second to Dortmund in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity, and returned in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. to come out on the losing end of another tough battle with that runner. Simon Callaghan trainees tend to run much better first off the bench than second, and Firing Line has to be considered something of a question mark at this nine-furlong distance considering the way he let Dortmund come back on him last time. Morning line second choice Lord Nelson would’ve also been a play against if he wasn’t expected to scratch, and I wanted to like Tiznow R J, but couldn’t figure out a good reason to excuse his last effort. Why Two is a very interesting semi-longshot to consider here. He ran on strongly after a slow start to be fourth on debut behind good return allowance winner Well Maybe, and rallied resolutely to graduate over seven furlongs here next out. The chestnut set the pace and repelled two challengers to annex the Turf Paradise Derby last time, and seems like he’ll get the additional sixteenth just fine. Selection: #4 Why Two (8-1). 

Wagered: $2,200. Current Total: $2,610.