Eight Days in September

Though yesterday was Day 9 (Book 4, Day 1) of the Keeneland September sale, our review of the sale totals today covers the first eight days–the four days of Book 1 plus Books 2 and 3. After Tuesday’s Book 3, Day 2 session there were five days remaining of the sale, whereas last year there were just four days after the first eight were completed. As a result day-by-day comparisons will become less meaningful, which is why we decided to take a snapshot of those first eight days, which would be somewhat more like-for-like. We’ve also decided, at this point, to switch our coverage of sire averages back from just Keeneland to the entire sales season so far, which is what is covered in the Instatistics section of TDN. 

For the sales first eight days (Books 1-3), there were 140 fewer yearlings catalogued than at that point in the sale last year, most of which was 113 fewer yearlings catalogued in Book 1, the first four days. That was about a 6% decline in the number catalogued in Books 1-3. There were 7% fewer sold (see yesterday’s edition, p. 4, for the Mersant cumulative box). Gross revenues were down by 3% (about $7.3-million), though with an extra day this year the final total should be a narrower margin than that. The average, through Tuesday’s session (so not including Book 4, Day 1 yesterday) was up 5%, from $148,017 through the first three books last year to $154,881 at the corresponding point this year. You’ll remember that Week 2 last year recorded a phenomenal 72.5% clearance rate from the catalogues. Through the first three books last year the percentage sold from the catalogue was 67.9%; this year it is 66.7% – almost exactly two out of three–a marginal but not a serious or troubling drop. When all is said and done, Keeneland September 2014 is going to look a lot like Keeneland September 2013, which will be fine considering last year was massively up, by over $60-million (28%) in gross, and by 17% in average. 

Gainesway’s star stallion Tapit is still $2.8-million clear of Kitten’s Joy, Giant’s Causeway, and Candy Ride on the 2014 TDN YTD North American General Sire List (click here – NA only), and the story of the North American yearling sales this year has been Tapit’s ascendance to the top of the tree commercially now, as well as on the racetrack. Through the end of Book 3 on Tuesday, so far this year Tapit’s had 38 yearlings average $628,289, which makes him the clear number one sire in North America by 2014 yearling average (click here – Instatistics Wednesday, Sires of Yearlings 2014, NA only). Claiborne’s War Front is a strong second, with 18 yearlings averaging $539,556. These are the only two North American sires averaging over $400,000; the Darley Jonabell pair of Bernardini ($365,074) and Medaglia D’Oro ($345,179) rank third and fourth (excluding Benchmark, who had a full brother to the ill-fated Points Offthebench sell for $550,000 last Monday). Number five among North American sires by average is WinStar’s Distorted Humor ($282,067). 
What’s really interesting about Tapit’s ascendancy is that it’s extended to the list of sires with their first yearlings, in that Claiborne’s Trappe Shot, a Grade II winner sprinting at four (echoes of the same farm’s War Front) by Tapit, has surprisingly usurped a lot of more obvious contenders to top the list of first-crop yearling sires at this point; through Tuesday Trappe Shot had 44 yearlings average $150,727 (click here – Instatistics Wednesday, first-year Sires of Yearlings, NA only)–an amazing 15 times his opening 2012 stud fee. In a very hot market last year in which the first weanlings by a number of debuting sales sires sold very well, this is what we had to say at the time about Trappe Shot (Nov 12, 2103): 

Claiborne’s Trappe Shot (Tapit) has averaged $84,769, with an $80,000 median (94% of average). With a median of eight times his $10,000 stud fee, Trappe Shot may be the real find of the sale, even given the rising tide; interestingly, in a different market, his sire Tapit recorded similar statistics with his first weanlings in 2006. 
That was written partway through the sale; Trappe Shot finished up the 2013 sales season (including any 2014 short yearlings) with 31 from his first crop averaging $66,097, with a median of $65,000. It’s not because he is by Tapit that Trappe Shot has sold so well; it’s because the individuals are bowling people over. But if they’vre run like they’ve sold, Tapit will become a sire of sires, too. 

Three other North American sires with first yearlings averaged over $100,000 through Book 3: Coolmore Ashford’s Uncle Mo ($128,098); Castleton Lyons’ Gio Ponti ($114,303); and the other little bit of a surprise package, Spendthrift’s Tizway ($112,185). I say that because Tizway’s first weanlings averaged $50,620, whereas Uncle Mo’s averaged $109,808 and Gio Ponti’s $102,167, so Tizway, winner of the 2011 GI Met Mile-Whitney S. double, also puts himself squarely among the 2014 first-yearling sires commercial leaders. WinStar’s Drosselmeyer ($95,360) and Coolmore Ashford’s Cape Blanco ($94,546) complete the top six averaging $90,000+ through Book 3, among North American F2013 sires (first foals 2013) with their first yearlings 2014. This does have the makings of a strong ‘sire crop’. 

Scottish Independence Referendum 
Today’s the day. In spite of the closeness of the polls (52-48 No), Betfair’s fixed-odds division declared on Tuesday it was paying out on No, which has been a heavy favorite all along (1 to 4 most of the time), though there was a small surge for Yes a couple of weeks ago. In an article on their website, Betfair wrote that 85% of all the bets they took were on No. Bookmakers don’t pay out early unless they’re pretty sure (because they have to pay out the other side, too, if they’re wrong). I believe the only other time they’ve paid out early on a political election was Obama’s re-election in 2012. 

NEXT COLUMN: next Tuesday, September 23, with results through the entire Keeneland September Sale, which finishes Sunday, September 21. 

Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at bopp@erb.com (please cc TDN management at suefinley@thoroughbreddailynews.com). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim.