Handicapping Saturday's Belmont Undercard

Race 5 – GI Ogden Phipps S. – This isn't the biggest field of the day by any means, but it's a very intriguing group with six contenders and one. . . ambitious entrant. Sheer Drama was no match for Curalina last time, but I wouldn't consider that proof that the latter is seven lengths better than the former. Clearly the versatile Sheer Drama hates Churchill–she's lost three times there as the favorite. A one-turn 8 1/2-furlong race should be right up her alley, and I think she'll bounce back nicely.

Race 6 – GII Jaipur S. – I really like Mosler in this spot. The $1.05M KEESEP yearling showed he's probably best as a turf sprinter with a decisive victory in last April's Elusive Quality S., and then had trip or turf condition excuses in his next three outings. He could only manage third in his Elusive Quality title defense last time, but he was part of a hot pace that otherwise fell apart. He's not fast enough to keep up with the likes of Rocket Heat early, but he'll get first run in the lane and can turn the tables on A Lot and some other closers.

Race 7 – GII Woody Stephens S. – This race has to collapse, right? Sharp Azteca was able to press and draw off last time against a couple of these in the GIII Pat Day Mile, but he drew the rail here and will have to contend with the Pat Day pacesetter again as well as a number of other quality speeds. I bet Pat Day third Star Hill last time on the cutback, but he was very wide throughout and could only manage third. One less furlong to negotiate could help sharpen his closing kick if he can overcome the 13 hole. I'll also feature Counterforce heavily in all wagers. He's got a serious late kick, and was up against it last time when trying to run down formidable loose leader and Woody Stephens entrant Justin Squared in the sloppy Chick Lang S.

Race 8 – GI Just a Game S. – The absence of Tepin and Miss Temple City has helped to make this a much better betting race than it might have been. I can't resist European invader Irish Rookie, who kept extremely good company last term and might be cycling up to her best third off the lay-off here. There are no Legatissimos, Ervedyas or Esoteriques signed on here. La Berma isn't impossible either–being beaten only 5 1/2 lengths in the G1 Prix de La Foret probably puts her close here. Plus dueled through impossible splits last time in California.

Race 9 – GI Metropolitan H. – This race is scary from a multi-race wager standpoint. You can't use them all, and have to make some tough decisions to toss some very accomplished runners. From a win value standpoint, I prefer Upstart. He ran fast races going short at two, including a good second in the GI Champagne S. over track and trip in 2014. He cuts back and adds blinkers off a somewhat lackluster effort in the GII Oaklawn H., and seems to have woken up in recent drills. If he runs close to a career best he can have a serious say in the outcome.

Race 10 – GI Manhattan S. – I guess Flintshire's just too good for them, right? He must really be doing well for them to call an audible and decide to run here, and anything close to his best makes him tough to beat. Divisidero's my top pick among the alternatives, but I'm admittedly a bit attached to him after his two Derby Day scores the last two years.